📰 IAF to fly AN-32 on blended biodiesel for 200 hours
Performance very satisfactory, says Air Vice-Marshal
•As part of efforts to reduce its carbon footprint, the Indian Air Force (IAF) is looking to fly an AN-32 transport aircraft modified to operate on 10% blended biodiesel for 200 flight hours in the next six months, Air Vice Marshal S. K. Jain, Assistant Chief of the Air Force (Maintenance Plans), said on Friday.
•The aircraft took flight on biodiesel blended with aviation turbine fuel (ATF) for the first time in December 2018. “So far, an AN-32 has flown 65 hours with a 10% blend of biofuel and the performance has been very satisfactory,” he said at a seminar on sustainable aviation biofuels organised by the Aeronautical Society of India.
•A second aircraft, a Dornier, was now undergoing ground tests after it had been cleared by the original manufacturer of the engine, Honeywell, for use of 50% biofuel, he said.
•The global aviation industry is one of the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases that cause global warming. The fuel consumption of the IAF for 2021-22 was 6.2 lakh kilo litres, which contributed 15 lakh tonnes of carbon dioxide.
•On the civil aviation front, an official from aircraft manufacturer Airbus said it had plans to offer 100% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) compatibility on its commercial aircraft latest by 2030.
📰 The consequences of declining fertility are many
A below replacement level fertility rate would mean a smaller dividend window than expected
•Though the global population, in terms of numbers, has been steadily increasing — some reports suggest that it could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030 — there is an interesting aspect to this: average global fertility has been consistently declining over the past 70 years. The average number of children per woman in the reproductive age group has declined by 50%, from an average of five children per woman in 1951 to 2.4 children in 2020, according to the World Population Prospects 2022 by the United Nations population estimates and projections, and prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat.
•This is the result of speeding up the social phenomenon of demographic transition. Poorer countries seem to be speeding up the transition ladder a lot faster than the richer ones. Britain took 130 years to transition from a fertility rate of five per woman in 1800 to two in 1930, whereas South Korea took 20 years from 1965 to 1985 to achieve the same. The newly released World Population Prospectus notes that the global fertility rate fell from three in 1990 to 2.3 in 2021. Sub-Saharan African countries are expected to contribute more than half the population growth after 2050 and grow through 2100. Most advanced economies have their fertility rate below the replacement rate of 2.1, with South Korea reporting the lowest at 1.05 children per woman.
•The Indian setting is no different, with its fertility rate falling below the replacement level for the first time to 2.0 in 2021, according to the latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS). The rate has dipped 10% in just five years.
•At the time of Independence, India’s fertility rate was six per woman, and it had taken 25 years to reach five, with the government launching the first ever family planning programme in the world in 1952. India’s fertility further declined to four in the 1990s when Kerala became the first State in India to have a fertility rate below replacement level; slowly, other States followed suit. As reported by the NFHS 2021, only five States have a fertility rate above the replacement rate: Bihar (3), Meghalaya (2.9), Uttar Pradesh (2.4), Jharkhand (2.3), and Manipur (2.2). The steady dip in fertility rates has been explained as an effect of increased use of contraception, more years of average schooling, better health care, and an increase in the mean marriage age of women.
Many economic implications
•Countries in the earlier stages of demographic transition find positive effects of lower fertility on income as a major portion of the workforce moves to modern sectors of the economy with fertility dipping. Lower fertility rates can be viewed as both a cause and consequence of economic development. Lower fertility impacts women’s education positively, which in turn lowers the fertility of the next generations. With better infrastructure development, better health care, and education, fertility drops and income rises. The spiral of lower fertility leads to a window of time when the ratio of the working-age population is higher than that of the dependent age groups. This high proportion of people in the workforce boosts income and investment, given the higher level of saving due to lower dependence.
•The falling fertility rate will also lead to lower pressure on land, water and other resources and would also contribute to achieving environmental goals. After the window where a country reaps the benefits of the demographic dividend, the huge working age population moves to old age, supported by fewer workers.
•Japan was the first country to experience the implications of falling fertility rates. The increasing dependency ratio has led to near zero GDP growth since the 1990s, and the country is facing fiscal challenges to meet rising social security costs. Other Asian countries such as South Korea are now reporting lower fertility than Japan which is now optimistic about having managed the lower fertility without moving to an utter demographic collapse.
•A fall in fertility rate beyond replacement level would have a negative effect on the proportion of the working population, which in turn will affect output in an economy. A rise in education and independence among women would enhance their labour participation, which could arrest the fall in labour participation up to a limit. An influx of immigrants from countries with higher population growth could also play a positive part.
•The impact of fertility drop on productivity is also highly debated. While a higher level of education and technological advancement in areas including artificial intelligence could increase the productivity of the lower working age population, a paper, “The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population”, by Stanford economist Charles Jones argues that falling fertility could diminish the creative capacity of humankind. He points to the need for ideas in technological advancement and productivity boost, which even artificial intelligence is still not capable of.
•An ageing population will also affect global interest rates negatively as the share of people over 50 years will form almost 40% of the population by 2100. In their book The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival, economists Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan explain how falling fertility will have a positive effect on inflation through higher wages due to lower labour supply and a change in the nature of unemployment inflation trade-off, as now low inflation can be maintained even with low unemployment.
•The book also takes a different view on the impact of lower fertility on public finance. Popular theory suggests increased pressure on governments due to a high dependency ratio. The book puts up an alternate narrative of the fall in government debt due to lower savings of households and corporates due to higher dependency and the government thus running on surplus than deficit banking on the logic of accounting and higher inflation.
Dealing with fertility decline
•The fall in fertility around the globe has been a result of decades of demographic process, and hence needs scientific and sustainable policies for mitigation. Even though there is looming pessimism about a lower fertility rate, there are ways to get the most out of it and diminish its negative effects. The advancement in health care and better nutrition around the world have increased the life expectancy and productivity of older citizens. Reforms in the labour market to induce more flexibility in the labour market would encourage working women to have more children and non-working mothers to enter the labour market.
•Countries across the globe are experimenting with policies to boost fertility. Germany found success in boosting births through liberal labour laws, allowing more parental leave and benefits. Denmark offers state-funded IVF for women below 40 years, and Hungary recently nationalised IVF clinics. Poland gives out monthly cash payments to parents having more than two children, whereas Russia makes a one-time payment to parents when their second child is born. Russia also reinstituted the Soviet-era ‘Mother Heroine’ title, who bore and raised more than 10 children amounting to almost a one-time payment of ₹13 lakh.
In perspective
•Though the benefits of demographic dividend are being reaped, the below replacement level fertility rate would mean a smaller dividend window than expected. Although India’s working-age population will continue to grow for many more decades, it would need to keep an eye on fertility dips. Liberal labour reforms, encouraging higher female labour force participation rate, and a higher focus on nutrition and health would ensure sustained labour supply and output despite lower fertility. India, like other countries in the globe, would need to be equipped to aid the patter of more tiny feet sooner or later.
📰 Remember Periyar with a pledge to embrace dissent
With majoritarianism on the rise, the iconoclast’s ideas on debate and rationality of thought are more relevant than ever
•We celebrate Periyar E.V. Ramasamy’s birth anniversary (September 17) as Social Justice Day. At a fundamental level, I consider this a day for recalibrating our vision for a world where social justice and rationality define “the best possible version of truth” for a large majority of people. Even Periyar would have wanted us to question every concept and framework in the world, and not accept anything, because someone told us so. He converted interested crowds into keen listeners, listeners into avid thinkers, and thinkers into principled politicians and die-hard activists. Even those who did not enter the political fray tried to understand why he was steadfast about what he stood for.
Vision for the future
•When he presented his thoughts, there was nuance, honesty, and an explicitness, which prompted even people practising different faiths to discuss and debate his ideas on rationality and religion. Periyar himself said, “Everyone has the right to refute any opinion. But no one has the right to prevent its expression.”
•Periyar is often referred to as an iconoclast, for the rebellious nature of his ideas and the vigour with which he acted. His vision for the future was a part of all his actions. He did not merely aim at the eradication of social evils; he also wanted to put an end to activities that do not collectively raise standards of society. The radical nature of his ideas drew constant opposition.
•Here, I would also want to debate some of the concepts propounded by Periyar. It is good that we refer to Periyar as an iconoclast and not an icon, because he would have dismantled that notion of an all-powerful icon himself.
•He was one of the pioneering voices against the Kula Kalvi Thittam introduced by the then Chief Minister C. Rajagopalachari. It was not just a political statement; Periyar felt that it would encourage divisions based on caste that might cause irreparable damage to the social fabric. Kula Kalvi Thittam proposed to impose on schoolchildren a method of education, wherein students would learn their family’s profession as part of the school curriculum. The proposal led to an uproar in the State led by voices such as Periyar and C.N. Annadurai. It was withdrawn and a message was sent to the wider world that Tamil Nadu stood united when it comes to caste oppression-related issues.
Foundation of rationalism
•Periyar’s vision was about inclusive growth and freedom of individuals. He was an important ideologue of his day because of the clarity in his political stand. More importantly, he understood the evolution of political thought and was able to glide through time with this. He presented rationalism as a solid foundation for thinking along these lines. He said, “Wisdom lies in thinking. The spearhead of thinking is rationalism.”
•Periyar was way ahead of his time. All the reforms he shared with people could not be implemented at the time because of the searing discussions they led to. It took years for the ideas to take shape in a way that could be implemented.
•One such reform measure he felt was needed to change the caste dynamic in society was ‘Priesthood for all castes’. Has the opposition to such ideas been reduced in a way? Not really. But we shall continue to maintain a civil debate for the overall betterment of society, as Periyar said.
•The struggle against the eradication of social evils takes several decades and Periyar with his idea of meaningful rebellion has guided me to play a part in this movement. It will be a guiding force for every student reading Periyar too. “Whomsoever I love and hate, my principle is the same. That is, the educated, the rich and the administrators should not suck the blood of the poor.”
•Periyar said, “Any opposition not based on rationalism or science or experience, will one day or other, reveal the fraud, selfishness, lies, and conspiracies.” We can posit this with regard to the extreme-right activities we see happening across the country and sometimes abroad too.
Violence against minorities
•On one level, a few people are benefiting greatly from the rampant rise of acts of violence against minorities. These people have such an external defence mechanism that it becomes easy for them to use incendiary rhetoric and get away with it. The discussion that Periyar initiated continues to-date, and is the antithesis to this manner of societal regression. Periyar proclaimed that he would always stand with the oppressed in the fight against oppressors and that his enemy was oppression.
•There have been several social reformers in Tamil Nadu who shared their revolutionary thoughts with the people in the past century. In that spectrum, Periyar occupies a unique place because he made interactions of multiple worlds possible. The world of social reform movements interacted with the world of people’s politics when Periyar took over a stage or when he wrote. He focused on the progress of Tamil Nadu and was clear that it would be a never-ending journey.
•Spaces for debate are shrinking all over the world. Majoritarianism and populism are not enabling sensible conversations in any public sphere. At such a time, Periyar stands as a stellar precedent, reminding us of a time when people with opposing ideas were invited to the stage for a debate. As a part of creating a society with social justice at its core, let us pledge to create open spaces for discussions in our communities. If need be, let us spearhead such activities on whatever scale. Only these spaces have the potential of creating a positive change at an ideological level.
Tamil Nadu’s breakfast scheme is a good model for other States to follow
•Sometimes the ability of a government to find resources for a good scheme is only limited by its intent. The Tamil Nadu government’s launch of the free breakfast scheme for schoolchildren is an instance of a policy initiative with far-reaching consequences for school education and public health. As Chief Minister M.K. Stalin himself said at the launch of the scheme, provision of free breakfast is not a freebie, but the foremost duty of a government to ensure no child goes hungry. Mr. Stalin framed his words and deeds from the promontory of the progressive Dravidian model, which promises inclusive growth for all segments of the population. A key element is the welfare of children, which explains Tamil Nadu’s early emphasis on feeding children in schools. The importance of a daily breakfast as the most important meal of the day is widely acknowledged. Multiple studies across the globe indicate that eating breakfast regularly confers positive outcomes on students, affecting their ability to focus, learn and retain information positively. School performance improves, as do behaviour and cognition, but a regular breakfast also takes care of diet quality, micronutrient sufficiency, anaemia and height and weight issues in children, and is even believed to sculpt BMI scores for the future. The government has targeted providing schoolchildren an average of 293 calories and an average protein input of 9.85 gm per day. The mid-day meal that is already being provided to students in schools comes up to an average of 553 calories and 18 gm of protein, giving every student who takes the food supplied in school about 846 cal and nearly 28 gm of protein a day. The Centre’s midday meal guidelines prescribe between 450-700 cals per child per day, and a protein intake of 12-20 gm per day.
•While the proposed menu for the Tamil Nadu government’s breakfast scheme will take care of hunger, the calorific, energy and micronutrient requirements of the children, with a diet rich in local preparations and vegetables, it also has to provide adequate attention to taste and quality parameters. The government, rich with its experience of dealing with the mid-day meal scheme over several decades, must avoid the errors of omission and commission — including pilferage, poor quality of food, delays in sanctioning funds, and caste-related disruptions — that have been hurdles in its path earlier. Other State governments would also do well to be inspired by Tamil Nadu, which has allowed its intent to triumph over the state of its finances, finding money to fund this very crucial aspect of nation building — ensuring the growth and development of children.
