📰 U.S. underlines unease with S-400 deal
Delhi, Washington on same page over Afghanistan, regional terror threat, says U.S. Deputy Secretary of State
•India and the U.S. are on the same page on Afghanistan and the threat to the region from terrorism, said visiting American Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, calling the partnership “indispensable” for both countries and the world.
•Striking a discordant note on India’s impending delivery of the Russian S-400 missile systems, however, Ms. Sherman, who described the S-400 deal as “dangerous”, expressed the hope that the two sides could “solve” the issue that arises from the possibility of U.S. sanctions over the defence purchase.
•“We’ve been quite public about any country that decides to use the S-400. We think that it is dangerous and not in anybody’s security interest,” Ms. Sherman said in response to a question from The Hindu at a roundtable with journalists on Wednesday.
•“That said, we have a strong partnership with India; we want to be very thoughtful about the ways ahead and discussions between our countries try to solve problems,” she added, hoping that the talks in the weeks ahead would resolve this issue as well.
•According to sources, Ms. Sherman, who met with NSA Ajit Doval and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar on Wednesday, also “raised” the S-400 purchase during her talks over lunch with Foreign Secretary Harsh Shringla.
•Her comments followed a day after Indian Airforce (IAF) Chief Air Chief Marshal (ACM) V.R. Chaudhari confirmed that the $5.43 billion S-400 system deal signed in 2018 with Russia is “on track” and the “first regiment” is expected to be inducted “within this year”, or by end-December 2021.
•The delivery is expected to trigger sanctions under the U.S.’s CAATSA law, which Washington has already imposed on Turkey and China for buying the S-400, unless the U.S. President steps in with a waiver. Government sources said the issue will continue to be discussed by the two sides.
•Over the next few weeks, the two sides are expected to meet for a number of bilateral functions, including the Defence Policy Dialogue headed by Defence Secretaries in Washington this weekend, the Joint Working Group (JWG) on Counter Terrorism on October 26th, leading up to the “2+2” meeting of Defence and Foreign Ministers together in November.
•A delegation from the office of the U.S. Trade Representative is in Delhi for trade talks this week, and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is expected to travel to Washington “soon”, said government sources, possibly next week, to attend the International Monetary Fund (IMF) annual meeting, and for the Economic and Financial Partnership meeting with her counterpart U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
•Describing the partnership during a public address to the U.S. India Business Council (USIBC)’s India Ideas Summit shortly after the meeting, Mr. Shringla indicated that the future of the Indo-Pacific region, and the situation in Afghanistan were at the top of their discussions.
•“Given the fast-paced developments in South Asia, especially in Afghanistan, India and the U.S. will remain closely engaged both on the future of Afghanistan, and on how we can maintain peace and stability in South Asia, and beyond,” Mr. Shringla said.
•When asked if the U.S. is discussing the possibility of cooperating on sourcing military bases with India, or with countries like Uzbekistan and Pakistan, which are part of Ms. Sherman’s current tour, she said the U.S. is discussing its options for airstrikes on Afghanistan through “over the horizon” (OTH) efforts, but did not elaborate further on India’s response.
•“All of our departments and agencies have put together a very robust programme of what we call “over the horizon efforts” of partnership on counterterrorism with India as part of that strong process to make sure that India’s security is first and foremost, in our minds, we will always have Indian security front and centre in our considerations of how the United States proceeds,” Ms. Sherman said.
•Ms. Sherman and Mr. Shringla also spoke “at length” about the Quad vaccine partnership which will entail manufacturing one billion J&J American vaccines in India by end 2022, said sources, but denied that the issue of indemnity clauses, which India insists on, will be a roadblock to the Quad proposals. Ms. Sherman said she had “applauded” India’s decision to resume its vaccine exports that were cancelled during the pandemic’s second wave in April, and both sides discussed future cooperation on vaccines.
Widespread use announced for children in sub-Saharan Africa and other regions
•In a historic move, the World Health Organization (WHO) on Wednesday endorsed the first anti-malarial vaccine, as mankind enters a key turning point in a battle waged relentlessly over decades between man and mosquito, the vector.
•In a press conference that went live on social media, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said, “This is a historic moment. The long-awaited malaria vaccine for children is a breakthrough for science, child health and malaria control… Using this vaccine on top of existing tools to prevent malaria could save tens of thousands of young lives each year.”
•The WHO said on Wednesday that it was recommending the widespread use of the RTS,S/AS01 (RTS,S) malaria vaccine among children in sub-Saharan Africa and in other regions with moderate to high P. falciparum malaria transmission, based on results from an ongoing pilot programme in Ghana, Kenya and Malawi.
•The development comes at a time when the WHO and its partners have reported a stagnation in the progress against the disease that kills more than 2,60,000 African children under the age of five annually. Malaria remains a primary cause of childhood illness and death in sub-Saharan Africa, according to the WHO.
•“For centuries, malaria has stalked sub-Saharan Africa, causing immense personal suffering,” said WHO Regional Director for Africa Dr. Matshidiso Moeti. “We have long hoped for an effective malaria vaccine and now for the first time ever, we have such a vaccine recommended for widespread use. Today’s recommendation offers a glimmer of hope for the continent which shoulders the heaviest burden of the disease and we expect many more African children to be protected from malaria and grow into healthy adults.”
•The vaccine does significantly reduce life-threatening severed malaria, Dr. Tedros said, but added that, “It’s not the only tool. Vaccination against #malaria does not replace or reduce the need for other measures, including bed nets.”
•RTS,S was first authorised in 2015 by the European Medicines Agency for use in Africa in infants and children.
📰 Recognising altruism: On rewarding Good Samaritans on road
Good Samaritans can help reduce accident deaths, but road safety needs more work
•The initiative of the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways to award Good Samaritans who save lives of road accident victims with a cash prize is a welcome attempt to reduce India’s staggering annual death toll from mishaps. Ranking third among 20 nations that have the highest number of accidents, India fares far worse on an important metric — cases to fatalities ratio — compared to the U.S. and Japan, which have more recorded crashes but fewer deaths. During 2020, even with severely disrupted mobility due to COVID-19, National Crime Records Bureau data show 1,33,715 lives were lost in 1,20,716 cases attributed to negligence relating to road accidents. Under the Motor Vehicles law, a Good Samaritan voluntarily helps an accident victim with no expectation of payment or reward, and has no legal obligation to record his involvement or aid the investigation in the case. In spite of an entire chapter being added to the Motor Vehicles Act last year to sensitise police forces and hospitals on this, altruism is affected by the perception of harassment and legal complications. The Ministry’s latest move seeks to overcome reticence by rewarding socially minded individuals who offer immediate assistance and rush a victim with certain kinds of injuries to hospital, with ₹5,000 and a certificate of recognition for saving a life. State governments are responsible for the plan, with the Centre providing an initial grant, but the Union Transport Ministry will give its own award of ₹1 lakh each to the 10 best Good Samaritans in a year.
•Achieving a reduction in mortality on India’s largely lawless roads warrants determined action on several factors, beginning with scientific road design and standards, and zero tolerance enforcement. It was only on September 3 that the Centre notified the long-pending National Road Safety Board, with a mandate to formulate standards on, among other things, safety and trauma management, to build capacity among traffic police, and put crash investigation on a scientific footing. Yet, on enforcement, State police forces generally appear to favour a populist approach of least engagement; regional transport bureaucracies — compared by Union Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari in 2015 to looting Chambal dacoits — can also benefit from a shake-up. As a steadily motorising country, the goal must be to reduce accidents and the ratio of deaths and injuries to cases. The Good Samaritan plan can work well if District Committees tasked with awarding these individuals readily recognise their contribution, aided by the police, hospitals and RTOs. Many more people will continue to be impelled by sheer altruism to help road users involved in a crash, and governments should get bureaucratic barriers out of their way.
📰 Sensing heat: On 2021 Nobel for Physiology or Medicine
Genetic mutations in cellular mechanism of temperature, pain sensation are insightful
•This year’s Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine — awarded to the researchers, David Julius and Ardem Patapoutian from the University of California, San Francisco and Scripps Research in La Jolla, California, respectively — recognises their seminal work in identifying the gene and understanding the mechanism through which our body perceives temperature and pressure. Our ability to sense touch and temperature — particularly noxious temperature — is essential for our survival and determines how we interact with our internal and external environment; chronic pain results when the pain response goes awry. Dr. Julius utilised capsaicin, a key ingredient in hot chilli peppers that induces a burning sensation, to identify a sensor in the nerve endings of the skin and the cellular mechanism that responds to uncomfortably hot temperatures. The receptor for heat gets activated only above 40° C, which is close to the psychophysical threshold for thermal pain, thus allowing us to react to external heat. In 2002, five years after the heat sensor was discovered, the two laureates, and independently, used menthol to discover the receptor that senses cold temperatures. Recent studies have found that discrimination between warm and cool temperatures is possible only through simultaneous activation of warmth-sensing nerve fibres and inhibition of cold-sensing nerve fibres. Using pressure-sensitive cells, Dr. Patapoutian discovered a novel class of mechanical sensors that responds to pressure on the skin and internal organs, and the perception of touch and proprioception — the ability to feel the position and movement of our body parts. The cellular mechanism that senses touch also regulates important physiological processes. Besides laboratory work, insights have been gained by studying people carrying genetic mutations in the cellular mechanism of temperature, pain, touch and pressure sensation.
•The discovery of pain receptors and the cellular mechanism have attracted pharmaceutical companies as these could be targets for novel medicines. Though there are challenges to be addressed before such drugs can be clinically meaningful, the hope is that newer approaches may one day bypass the hurdles. Further research will help in understanding the functions of the receptors in a “variety of physiological processes and to develop treatments for a wide range of disease conditions”. This year’s Prize once again underscores the great contributions refugees fleeing war-torn countries can make to science and other fields. Dr. Patapoutian, who is of Armenian origin, grew up in Lebanon during the country’s prolonged civil war and fled to the U.S. in 1986 as an 18-year-old. From being blissfully unaware about science as a career in Lebanon, he not only “fell in love doing basic research”, but has also excelled in it to produce path-breaking discoveries in medicine.
📰 A strategy for India in a world that is adrift
The country’s path to power will be affected by the geopolitical and economic centres of gravity now shifting to Asia
•New situations require fresh thinking. A few of us — Yamini Aiyar, Sunil Khilnani, Prakash Menon, Nitin Pai, Ajit Ranade, Srinath Raghavan, and Shyam Saran — some of whom were authors a decade ago of Non-Alignment 2.0, were prompted by the tectonic shifts in India’s internal and external environment to take another look at India’s path to power in a world between orders. The outcome of our conversations is a discussion paper hosted on the Centre for Policy Research and Takshashila Institute websites called India’s Path to Power; Strategy in a World Adrift. It is our hope that we will receive comments, suggestions and criticism of the paper and that it will contribute to the national debate on our country’s course.
Many power centres
•The world is today adrift. We are neither in a bipolar Cold War nor in a multipolar world, though perhaps tending towards a world of several power centres. We are in a world between orders. The lack of a coherent international response to the COVID-19 pandemic is proof of an absence of international order and of the ineffectiveness of multilateral institutions. So is the ineffective international response to climate change and other transnational threats.
•Secular stagnation in the global and Indian economies and a retreat from globalisation, the regionalisation of trade, a shifting balance of power, the rise of China and others, and structural China-United States strategic rivalry have shifted the geopolitical and economic centres of gravity from the Atlantic to Asia. Inequality between and within states has bred a narrow nationalism and parochialism. We are entering a new polarised information age, and face ecological crises of the Anthropocene, making climate change an existential threat. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated some of these changes and transformed others. All in all, we can no longer take the success of our development model for granted.
Asia as the nucleus
•Over the next decade we expect Asia to remain the cockpit of geopolitical rivalries, and that the U.S. remains the most formidable power, though its relative power is declining. China sees a window of opportunity but acts in a hurry, suggesting that she believes that window may close or is already closing due to pushback from the West and others. China’s crowded geography constrains her both on land and at sea. We see a slim prospect of Chinese hegemony in Asia, but expect her profile and power to continue expanding, particularly in our periphery. The result is likely continued friction, some cooperation, and quasi-adversarial relations between India and China, which others will take advantage of. As neighbours and in the present situation, a mix of confrontation and cooperation is likely to continue to mark India’s relations with China.
•Overall, we do not expect conventional conflict between the great powers in Asia, though other forms and levels of violence and contention in the international system will rise, with Taiwan a special case.
Challenges, opportunities
•The uncertainty and changing geopolitical environment clearly pose considerable challenges to Indian policy but also throw up certain opportunities, enhancing our strategic options and diplomatic space, if we adjust policies internally and externally, particularly in the subcontinent. Increasing security congruence with the U.S. could enable growing cooperation in fields significant for India’s transformation: energy, trade, investment, education and health. Other areas in which India and the U.S. could increase cooperation are: climate change and energy, on tech solutions for renewable energy, and on digital cooperation. Several middle powers are now India’s natural partners. There is also an increasing possibility of working with partners in the developing world building broader coalitions on issues of common interest. This time of transition between orders is also when new standards and norms are being developed, particularly in the digital space. India can and must be present at the creation. There are opportunities in other domains as well. At sea, the balance is today more favourable to us than before, possibly more so than on the continent. We suggest the creation of a Maritime Commission, a Bay of Bengal Initiative with partner countries, and increasing what we do with South East Asia in maritime security, cybersecurity and counter-terrorism. We should aim for multipolarity in Asia.
•The way forward that we suggest is based on the core strategic principles in Non-Alignment 2.0 which are still relevant: independent judgement, developing our capacities, and creating an equitable and enabling international order for India’s transformation. Today’s situation makes India’s strategic autonomy all the more essential.
•At the same time, we must adjust to changing circumstances. We have no choice but to engage with this uncertain and more volatile world. One productive way to do so would be through issue-based coalitions including different actors, depending on who has an interest and capability.
Revive SAARC
•We also suggest initiatives to craft and reinvigorate regional institutions and processes in the neighbourhood, reviving the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) for instance. India could be the primary source of both prosperity and security in the neighbourhood — the subcontinent and the Indian Ocean Region. The over securitisation of policy towards our neighbours has driven trade underground, criminalised our borders, and enabled large-scale entry of Chinese goods destroying local industry in the northeast. While lessening dependence on China, and seeking external balancing, our primary effort has to concentrate on self-strengthening. If there is one country which in terms of its size, population, economic potential, scientific and technological capabilities can match or even surpass China, it is India.
Self-strength is key
•Our paper also suggests several steps that we can take in India to ensure that India’s role and influence abroad continue to serve the task of transforming India. Economic policy must match political and strategic engagement. Globalisation has been central to India’s growth. A more active regional and international role for India is incompatible with a position on the margins of the global economy. Self-reliance in today’s world and technologies can only be realised as part of the global economy. We should not imitate China’s claims to being a civilisational state and its adoption of victimhood. Instead we should affirm our own strength and historic national identity.
•In sum, we see self-strengthening as an absolutely essential precondition as also safeguarding the foundational sources of India’s international influence. We cannot separate our domestic trajectory from the external course we need to pursue to transform India into a strong, secure and prosperous country.
📰 Trade multilateralism at risk
The World Trade Organization is facing an existential crisis
•The World Trade Organization (WTO) — the global trade body — is facing a serious existential crisis. The upcoming WTO ministerial meeting scheduled for next month in Geneva provides an opportunity to rescue this critical global institution from irrelevance. Created in 1995, during the heyday of neoliberalism, the WTO became a shining example of triumphant free-market capitalism. It championed a rule-based multilateral trading order. Critics of neoliberalism chastised the WTO for pushing the American imperialist agenda. Paradoxically, more than two-and-a-half decades later, the United States, which played a pivotal role in establishing the WTO, seems to have lost interest in it. The feeling in Washington is that the WTO hasn’t served the American national interest by failing to stem China’s rise and regularly indicting the U.S. in several trade disputes. President Joe Biden, notwithstanding his credentials as an internationalist, has continued with the same policy towards the WTO that Donald Trump practised.
•The continuation of the U.S. policy on the WTO is most evident in the sustained crippling of the Appellate Body (AB). The AB is part of the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism, also known as the “crown jewel” of the organisation. It is a permanent body with seven members, and acts as an appellate court hearing appeals from the decisions given by WTO panels. Three out of seven AB members serve on any one case. However, since December 2019, the AB has stopped functioning due to rising vacancies. Over the years, the U.S. has consistently blocked the appointment of AB members. Not just this, the U.S. also vetoes proposals to find solutions to this impasse, including stalling the proposal of the European Union to establish an alternative interim appellate arbitration mechanism. The number of pending appeals to the AB has increased sharply to around 20 cases. Countries now have an easy option not to comply with the WTO panel decisions by appealing into the void. Accordingly, they can continue with their defiance of
WTO obligations. If no solution is found soon, the WTO’s rules-based order will start crumbling.
Other challenges
•Additionally, there are four other compelling challenges that the WTO faces. First, no solution has been found to the public stockholding for food security purposes despite a clear mandate to do so in the 2015 Nairobi ministerial meeting. This is of paramount concern for countries like India that use Minimum Support Price (MSP)-backed mechanisms to procure foodgrains. The WTO rules allow countries to procure, stock and distribute food. However, if such procurement is done at an administered price such as the MSP that is higher than the external reference price, then the budgetary support provided shall be considered trade-distorting and is subject to an overall cap. With rising prices and the need to do higher procurement to support farmers and provide food to the poor at subsidised prices, India might breach the cap. Although countries have agreed that legal suits will not be brought if countries breach the cap (the so-called ‘peace clause’), it is imperative to find a permanent solution such as not counting MSP-provided budgetary support as trade-distorting.
•Second, the WTO member countries continue to disagree on the need of waiving the Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) agreement for COVID-19 related medical products. It was exactly a year back when India and South Africa proposed a TRIPS waiver to overcome intellectual property (IP)-related obstacles in increasing accessibility of COVID-19 medical products, including vaccines. With large parts of the world still unvaccinated and with IP acting as an important barrier to vaccines and drugs, the WTO needs to rise up to the challenge and adopt a waiver in the upcoming ministerial meeting.
•Third, the WTO is close to signing a deal on regulating irrational subsidies provided for fishing that has led to the overexploitation of marine resources by countries like China, which is the largest catcher and exporter of fish. However, this agreement should strike a balance between conserving ocean resources and the livelihood concerns of millions of small and marginal fishermen in countries like India. In this regard, an effective special and differential treatment provision that accords adequate policy space is what India and other developing countries should insist on. Fourth, the gridlock at the WTO has led to the emergence of mega plurilateral trade agreements like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) — a trade treaty between 11 countries, which China is now keen to join. Another key trade treaty is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement between powerful Asian economies and countries down under. These mega plurilateral agreements not only fragment the global governance on international trade but also push the multilateral order to the margin, converting the WTO to what some call an “institutional zombie”.
•Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during his recent U.S. visit, rightly pleaded for a rule-based global order. Institutional multilateralism would be the ideal antidote to mounting unilateralism and economic nationalism. The WTO is the finest example of such a rule-based multilateral order in trade. Notwithstanding its flaws, the WTO is the only forum where developing countries like India, not party to any mega plurilateral trade agreements, can push for evolving an inclusive global trading order that responds to the systemic imbalances of extant globalisation. What is at stake is the future of trade multilateralism and not just an institution, in which India has a huge interest.
📰 Road accidents can be reduced
Public discourse, improving infrastructure can help
•Fifty-one passengers of an overcrowded bus died in an accident on the morning of February 16 when it fell into a canal near Sarda Patan village in Sidhi district, Madhya Pradesh. A griha pravesh (house-warming) ceremony for the beneficiaries of one lakh houses constructed under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana in Bhopal, which was to be attended virtually by Union Home Minister Amit Shah, was cancelled due to the incident. Two days earlier, fourteen persons were killed when a minivan they were travelling in hit a divider on a National Highway (NH) near Madarpur village in Kurnool district, Andhra Pradesh. The van carrying 18 passengers was on its way to Ajmer in Rajasthan from Chittoor, when the driver lost control and hit the divider, tumbling on the other side of the road where a speeding truck crashed into it.
•According to a study conducted by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, 1,51,113 persons were killed and 4,51,361 injured in road accidents across the country in 2019. NHs and State Highways, which account for about 5% of the total road length, claimed 61% of the deaths related to accidents. Around 35,606 deaths were reported on the NHs, which come under the National Highway Authority of India (NHAI).
•Speaking at a webinar organised by the International Road Federation on February 9, Union Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari said India topped the fatality figures in road accidents in the world, with 415 deaths each day. While commending Tamil Nadu for taking effective road safety measures that had resulted in the reduction of road accidents by 38% and deaths by 54%, he asked other States to emulate Tamil Nadu.
•It is small wonder that he actively pursued the Motor Vehicles (Amendment) Act, 2019, with the well-intentioned motive of bringing down the death rate due to road accidents by 50% by 2020. This was agreed to by all participating nations in the United Nations Brasilia Declaration, of which India was a signatory. Though the number of deaths due to accidents declined to 1.20 lakh in 2020 due to COVID-19, Mr. Gadkari shifted the deadline to 2025.
•But the steep hike in the fines imposed for traffic violations in the Act was met with stiff opposition, with some States dismissing it as too harsh and, hence, not willing to implement it. What seems to have been ignored while drafting the law was the fact that a good number of those driving vehicles to earn their livelihood were from economically poor backgrounds. West Bengal decided not to implement the new law and continued with the West Bengal Motor Vehicle Rules, 1989.
•The Madras High Court recently struck down the April 6, 2018 notification of the Union Government wherein the speed limit was hiked to 120 and 100 km/hour on expressways and highways, respectively. This was done as 66.7% of accidents was attributed to overspeeding in 2017, 55.73% in 2018 and 64.4% in 2019.
•Studies carried out by various organisations have also come out with the causes for accidents and ways to curb them. The Accident Research Cell of the Delhi Traffic Police carried out an analysis of accidents and created a database that facilitates the formulation of policies to prevent accidents. While probing an accident that led to the death of former Union Rural Development Minister Gopinath Munde in New Delhi, the cell concluded that hedges along a road obstructed the visibility of drivers coming from the other direction. After the hedges were pruned, the stretch became free from accidents.
•While the strict enforcement of traffic safety laws would go a long way, educating citizens about the impact of accidents on the kin of the victims through public discourse could help in reducing accidents. Improving road infrastructure with coordinated efforts by the police and civic authorities, identification of black spots that are prone to accidents and deploying an adequate number of police personnel, particularly during peak hours, could bring down accident rates. Highway patrols with police personnel trained in first aid and ambulances every 10 km could also help save precious lives.
📰 The recent QES estimates are unreliable
The analysis is fraught with caveats and the interpretation of the survey results calls for caution
•Last week, the Ministry of Labour and Employment released the results of a new Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) for April-June 2021 for the organised (formal) sector. It represents establishments (or units) employing ten or more workers. The surveyed sectors were manufacturing, construction, trade, transport, education, health, accommodation and restaurant, Information Technology/Business Process Outsourcing (IT/BPO), and financial services. The survey reported the following. First, “It is heartening to note that the estimated total employment in the nine selected sectors from the first round of QES works out as 3 crores and 8 lakhs approximately against a total of 2 crores and 37 lakhs in these sectors taken collectively, as reported in the Sixth Economic Census (2013-14), implying a growth of 29%.” Secondly, employment fell from 3.078 crore before the first nationwide lockdown in March 2020 to 2.848 crore post the lockdown on July 1, 2020. Thus, the report showed that 24 lakh jobs lost during the lockdown in 2020 came back by the first quarter of 2021.
•The new QES is a welcome step as it will help generate timely employment estimates for the larger units. However, the above analysis is fraught with caveats and the interpretation of the survey results calls for caution.
Limited coverage
•As is widely known, establishments with ten or more workers account for a small proportion of all non-agricultural establishments — a mere 1.66% as per the Economic Census (EC) of 2013-14. Also, a disproportionately large share of workers — 81.3% as per the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS, 2018-19) — worked in the unorganised sector. With its limited coverage, the QES based on data for formal sector enterprises cannot provide a total picture of employment dynamics. Hence, drawing inferences about overall job losses during the lockdown based on this survey is simply misleading.
•Data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) showed that during April 2020, 12.1 crore workers lost their jobs. Most of these workers were informally employed — 9.1 crore job losses reportedly occurred amongst small traders and casual labourers. The official PLFS indicated the extent of distress in the labour market during the nationwide lockdown. The unemployment rate by current weekly status (i.e. the activity status during seven days preceding the survey date) in urban areas increased from 9.1% in January-March 2020 (before the lockdown) to 20.8% in April to June 2020.
•Significantly, the new QES data suffer from many methodological shortcomings such as an outdated sample frame, non-comparability of employment numbers obtained from the EC-2013 with sample estimates obtained from the QES for only a quarter, and differences in methods used for gathering the information. We elucidate these problems below.
•Conducting a scientific sample survey requires a “sample frame”, i.e. the list of units (e.g., persons, households, businesses, etc.) in the survey population. Since the basis for sample selection is this list, the frame is of utmost importance for the survey design. To generate a frame for its enterprise surveys, India has been conducting the ECs since 1977, albeit at long and irregular intervals. The most recent one was in 2013-14, which the QES has used.
•The new QES has a sample of approximately 11,000 establishments. The datedness of the frame implies that the QES does not include units set up after 2013. Further, the EC-2013 has based itself on the “enumeration blocks” of the Population Census, 2011 as the primary geographical units. The outdated nature of the sample frame, which has been acknowledged for a while now, renders the new QES employment estimates irrelevant.
•To understand the QES’s origin, the Labour Bureau (LB) conducted the first such survey in 2009, with a modest sample size of around 2,000 manufacturing units for eight select labour-intensive and export-oriented industries in 11 States. The survey sought to assess the employment effects of the global financial crisis and was conducted till December 2015. In April 2016, the LB replaced this series with another quarterly series, which had a larger sample size and enhanced sectoral coverage. The EC-2013 served as the sampling frame for this survey, too. However, it was soon abandoned as a government-appointed Task Force on Improving Employment Data (2017) recommended doing away with the QES on grounds of its limited coverage and an outdated sample frame.
•Given the above background, the rush to produce a new QES that draws its sample from the EC-2013 frame seems baffling. It would have been more prudent to await the release of a newly updated frame in the EC-2020 and then canvass for the QES. In fact, given the outdated frame, drawing inferences about employment changes even for the organised sector during the lockdown is misleading. It is also worth noting that QES was primarily a telephonic survey and verification of responses of establishments has not been done (as has been the usual practice for the LB’s quarterly surveys).
•Moreover, the comparison of the employment estimates obtained from the new QES for April to June 2021 with the employment number based on the EC-2013 reported in the first paragraph is confounding. The latter is a census, conducted over an entire year, to provide a frame. The former is a sample survey conducted with a short reference period. The questionnaire of the QES asks establishments about employment details for a specific quarter, in this case, April 1, 2021. In contrast, the EC-2013 questionnaire asks establishments about the number of persons working on the last working day prior to the date of fieldwork in the establishment.
Conceptual problem
•In addition, there is a conceptual problem in comparing employment numbers of the EC with the QES. Although the former asks questions about the number of persons working in an enterprise, it is not a good instrument for estimating the size of the workforce or for analysing employment trends as the principal objective of the EC is generating a frame, not estimating employment.
•The initiative to produce quarterly employment data for selected industries in the organised sector is desirable. However, in a rush to generate high-frequency estimates, there cannot be a compromise on data quality and its reliability. Hence, the inference drawn using the new survey data, as reported in the opening paragraph, is misleading. The LB’s hurried effort has only created (avoidable) confusion and undermined the potential value of the QES.
