📰 Price assurances, viability gap funding for oil palm farmers
New Mission to boost domestic production and reduce dependence on imports
•The Centre will offer price assurances, viability gap funding and planting material assistance to oil palm farmers to boost domestic production and reduce dependence on imports via a new mission approved by the Cabinet on Wednesday.
•Over a five-year period, the financial outlay for the National Mission on Edible Oils-Oil Palm (NMEO-OP) will amount to ₹11,040 crore of which ₹8,844 crore is the share of the Central government, according to an official statement. The Mission hopes to increase oil palm acreage by an additional 6.5 lakh hectare by 2025-26 and grow production of crude palm oil to 11.2 lakh tonnes by 2025-26 and up to 28 lakh tonnes by 2029-30.
Volatility in international market
•At a press briefing after the Cabinet meeting, Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar said the government aimed to reduce the risk for farmers facing price fluctuation of the fresh fruit bunches from which oil is extracted, due to volatility in the international market.
•“The government will develop a mechanism to fix and regulate palm oil prices. So if the market is volatile, then the Centre will pay the difference in price to the farmers through direct benefit transfer,” he said.
•This is the first time the Centre will give oil palm farmers a price assurance, with industry mandated to pay the viability gap funding of 14.3% of crude palm oil prices. In a bid to encourage oil palm cultivation in northeastern India and in the Andaman and Nicobar islands, the Centre will bear an additional cost of 2% of the crude palm oil prices in these States. The scheme has a sunset clause, ending November 1, 2037.
•The Mission will also more than double the support provided for the cost of planting materials, with an increase from ₹12,000 petr hectare to ₹29,000 per hectare along with further assistance for maintenance, inter cropping interventions and the rejuvenation of old gardens. To deal with the shortage of planting materials, the Mission will provide assistance to seed gardens up to ₹100 lakh for 15 hectares in the focus areas of the northeast and Andamans, and up to ₹80 lakh in the rest of the country.
Biodiversity concerns
•Asked about biodiversity concerns involved in monoculture plantations, Mr. Tomar said an assessment by the Indian institute of Oil Palm Research had found 28 lakh hectares across the country which could be safely used for oil palm cultivation. Less than four lakh hectares are currently planted with oil palm.
•In a separate decision, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved a revival package of ₹77.45 crore for the revival of the Northeastern Regional Agricultural Marketing Corporation to provide marketing and post harvest processing support to farmers.
Reforms in the sector
•The Oil Palm Developers & Processors Association hailed the Cabinet decisions and said it has been relentlessly urging the government to usher reforms in the sector. The decisions would benefit farmers and make it viable for the industry to continue contributing towards making the country self-sufficient in edible oil requirements and consequently save foreign exchange, president Sanjay Goenka said.
•Noting that India is heavily dependent on imported edible oils, the OPDPA in a press release said nearly 15 million tonnes or about 68% of country’s annual edible oil requirement of 22 MT are imported. About 9 MT or around 60% of the edible oil import is palm oil and its derivatives.
•Managing Director of Godrej Agrovet Balram Singh Yadav said by assuring a transparent price mechanism based on the last five years average, the Centre has made sure the farmer remains unaffected by price volatility. Since it is a long gestation crop, initial improved support to farmers will also encourage quicker adoption and sustainability of this crop, he said in a release.
New Delhi is on track to overachieve its Nationally Determined Contribution, says head of COP 26.
•Alok Sharma, president-designate, United Nations Conference of Parties (COP), said he hoped India would consider more ambitious emissions targets. Mr. Sharma is visiting India as part of a larger international tour building consensus among nations for concrete outcomes ahead of the 26th round of climate talks.
•“I have been encouraged by the discussions I’ve had. India is on track to overachieve its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). I would request if India would consider any NDC that takes into account this overachieving,” Mr. Sharma told reporters on Wednesday. Among those he met in this three-day India tour were Environment Minister Bhupendra Yadav and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
Carbon neutrality
•A major theme building ahead of the climate talks in Glasgow, Scotland, this November is the question of how many nations can commit to a net zero target and by when. Net zero or carbon neutrality is when more carbon is sucked out from the atmosphere or prevented from being emitted than what a country emits and is critical to ensuring that the planet doesn’t heat up an additional half a degree by 2100.
•A little over 120 countries have committed, with varying degrees of firmness, to reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. Five countries have net zero pledges set for after 2050, including Australia and Singapore, which haven’t set a firm target yet.
•China, the world’s biggest emitter, has committed to peaking its emissions before 2030 and achieving net zero by 2060.
•The United States has said it would achieve net zero by 2050 and nearly halve emissions by 2030. India is among the major countries that haven’t committed to a 2050 plan but has said it is one of the countries that has delivered on one of the 2015 Paris Agreements main goals that is taking steps to ensure that its emissions don’t put the globe on a road to heating one degree more than present by the turn of the century. Further, India’s position is that it has among the lowest per capita emissions, is not responsible for the climate crisis, which the science establishes is due to historical emissions by developed countries and cannot compromise on ensuring economic growth of its vast citizenry.
•India’s NDC includes reducing the emissions intensity of GDP by 33%–35% by 2030 below 2005 levels; increase the share of non-fossil-based energy resources to 40% of installed electric power capacity by 2030, with help of transfer of technology and low-cost international finance including from Green Climate Fund (GCF) and to create an additional (cumulative) carbon sink of 2.5–3 GtCO2e through additional forest and tree cover by 2030. It has committed to installing 450 GW of renewable energy by 2030 of which 100 GW is reportedly installed.
Thorn of contention
•A thorn of contention is the over-$100 billion that was to have come to developing countries from developed ones for clean energy investments and mitigation that continues to be outstanding. Mr. Sharma said Canada and Germany were working with his team to set out a “delivery plan”.
•“Delivering the $100 billion a year is a matter of trust. Germany and Canada will be setting out a delivery plan until 2025 and have it in place before COP 26. For the years beyond 2025, that will certainly require trillions of dollars, much is expected to come from the private sector,” he said.
•On Wednesday, the Union Cabinet approved ratification of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol that envisages phasing out of hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) by 80-85% of present levels by 2040 in a phased manner by all signatory countries. The HFC are used in refrigeration and contribute to global warming. India in 2016 committed to phasing down HFC in four steps from 2032 with a 10% reduction in 2032, 20% in 2037, 30% in 2042 and 80% in 2047.
📰 NHRC core group expresses concern over slow criminal justice reform process
Delay in disposal of cases is leading to human rights violations of the under-trials and convicts: experts
•A group of experts under the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) on Wednesday expressed “serious concerns over the slow pace of reforms in the criminal justice system to ensure speedy justice”, an NHRC statement said.
•The NHRC core group on the criminal justice system held its first meeting on Wednesday where experts said the delay in disposal of cases was leading to human rights violations of the under-trials and convicts. NHRC member Justice (retired) M.M. Kumar, who chaired the meeting, said that despite the Supreme Court’s directions on police reforms, there had been hardly any changes on the ground. He said special laws and fast-track courts could replace certain offences under the Indian Penal Code in order to reduce the piling up of cases at every police station.
•NHRC chairperson Justice (retd.) A.K. Mishra said that not only were trials getting delayed, but court orders convicting a person also took years to implement. He said digitisation of documents would help in speeding up investigations and trials.
•According to estimates, there were about 4.4 crore pending cases in the Supreme Court, High Courts and district courts, NHRC Secretary General Bimbadhar Pradhan said.
•Among the suggestions that came up during the meeting were increasing awareness of laws among police personnel, increasing the number of police personnel and stations in proportion to the number of complaints in an area, and including social workers and psychologists in the criminal justice system.
📰 Cabinet nod for Indo-Swiss medical research agreements
•The Cabinet has approved agreements between the Indian Council of Medical Research and Swiss research agencies to promote collaboration on diagnostics and antimicrobial resistance, according to an official statement on Wednesday.
•One Memorandum of Understanding was signed with Switzerland’s Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics in February, according to which ICMR is committed to make available funding up to $100,000 while the Swiss foundation will make available funds up to $ 400,000 to local partners and researchers.
•The other MoU was signed with the GARDP Foundation on Antimicrobial Resistance Research and Innovation in March. The Swiss foundation aims to develop and deliver new or improved antibiotic treatments, and also ensure their sustainable access. The collaboration will involve joint strategy and financial and in-kind contributions by both parties, said the statement.
📰 Jaishankar announces rollout of tech to help protect U.N. peacekeepers
India, which has 5,000 personnel deployed across nine missions, has lost 175 soldiers over the decades
•Presiding over a United Nations Security Council open debate on technology and peacekeeping, his first as External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar announced the rollout of a technological platform in partnership with the U.N., ‘ UNITE Aware’, to help enhance the safety of U.N. peacekeepers. India, as a major contributing nation to U.N. peacekeeping activities, has been keen on using its month-long UNSC Presidency to prioritise peacekeeping. The platform has been used in four U.N. missions, an Indian official told The Hindu.
•On Wednesday, the Security Council adopted a resolution that paid tribute to peacekeepers and asked member-states that had hosted them to bring to justice those who had killed or committed acts of violence against them. India, which has 5,000 of its personnel deployed across nine missions, has lost 175 soldiers over the decades, according to official estimates.
•“The international community must come together better to govern the digital space for good, while addressing its many challenges,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said at the debate.
Analogue world
•“ … U.N. peacekeeping was conceived in an analogue world,” Mr. Guterres said. “It is now essential that it fully embraced the digital worlds in which we live.”
•Mr. Jaishankar outlined a four-point framework for securing the peacekeepers at the debate.
•First, he called for the deployment of proven, cost-effective, field-serviceable technologies that were environmentally friendly in their construction. Second, peacekeepers needed sound information and intelligence, he said, and this would require precise positioning and overhead visualisation, which would help enhance the security of missions.
•“It therefore gives me great pleasure to announce that India is supporting the U.N. in the rollout of the UNITE Aware Platform across select peacekeeping missions. This initiative is based on the expectation that an entire peacekeeping operation can be visualised, coordinated and monitored on a real time basis,” Mr. Jaishankar said.
•“We should ensure that any attack on a peacekeeper or a civilian is predictable, preventable or responded to immediately,” he said adding that technological improvements are continuous and available on the ground but also in the gear and weapons of peacekeepers.
•Finally, Mr. Jaishankar called for investment in capacity building and training of peacekeepers with regard to technology, announcing to the Council, a Memorandum of Understanding between India and the U.N., in support of the “Partnership for Technology in Peacekeeping” initiative and the UN C4ISR Academy for Peace Operations (UNCAP).
Complexities and challenges
•The Security Council adopted a “Presidential Statement” underscoring the importance of peacekeeping, the complexities and challenges of the environment in which it occurs and the importance of existing and new technologies to better protect Peacekeepers.
•On Thursday, Mr. Jaishankar will chair a second open debate — on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts.
📰 A delayed intervention: On need to boost exports
With global demand booming, the Centre must act faster to rev up export growth engine
•After much delay, the Government has notified the rules and rates based on which exporters can claim rebates on taxes paid on their outbound cargo. That it took nearly eight months to come up with these critical details after the scheme promising such rebates kicked in has meant that exporters have had to conjure up additional working capital to the extent of taxes paid but not refunded during this period. A new scheme was necessitated to replace the erstwhile merchandise exports incentive scheme after the WTO dispute settlement body held it was not compliant with the multilateral trade watchdog’s norms. The Government is confident that the new scheme, Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP), and effective from January 1, is WTO-compliant. Covering 8,555 tariff lines, or roughly 65% of India’s exports, the remission rates now notified, range from 0.5% to 4.3% of the Freight On Board value of outbound consignments. For some goods, there is a cap on the value of the exported items. Steel, pharmaceuticals and chemicals have been excluded from the RoDTEP. Some sectors are concerned about the rates being lower than expected, while engineering firms are worried that taxes on key raw materials are not adequately offset. Fine-tuning may be needed, but a vacuum has been plugged at last.
•There can be no doubt that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s call to scale up exports to $400 billion this year helped expedite the disentangling of inter-ministerial red tape over the RoDTEP scheme. A new foreign trade policy, a couple of smaller export-related schemes and a mechanism to fork out the last two years’ pending dues under the earlier export incentive programme are expected by September. This urgency must not be lost. Having opted out of RCEP, India is looking to re-ignite free trade pact negotiations with Australia, the U.K., the EU and the U.S. The global economy is on the cusp of one of its strongest rebounds as COVID-19 vaccination drives cross a tipping point in many advanced economies. As they look to go beyond China to service domestic consumption demand, India needs to aggressively step up to the opportunity. Although the second wave’s damage on the economy is less severe than the wreckage from last year’s national lockdown, domestic recovery is still feeble and uneven. Consumption may see some pullback on pent-up demand as well as the impending festive season, but its sustainability is fragile. Till that firms up, private investments are unlikely to take off. That leaves public capital spending and exports as the two growth engines with feasible firepower to aid the recovery momentum. There is no time to dither on either of these fronts.
📰 The significance of the ‘there is no data’ answer
The Government’s consistent ‘no data’ declarations on important issues are a critical part of a larger political project
•It can be safely assumed that the popular American dictum, “In God we trust; all others must bring data”, is unlikely to be found in any office of the Narendra Modi government. There is mounting evidence to show that either the Government has ‘no data’ about issues that show it in a bad light, or with its ‘alternate facts’, the answer is zero. If there was a filing cabinet that citizens maintained, then the file titled ‘No Data’ would be the thickest. The desperate scenes of migrants walking back to their villages after the announcement of the sudden lockdown on March 24, 2020 were recorded by global media. A World Bank report concluded that 40 million migrant jobs were impacted/lost in India in April 2020. But when the Government was first asked how many migrants had lost their jobs, the answer was that it had no data. When asked in September 2020 on how many frontline health workers had lost their lives during the pandemic, the then Health Minister announced that there was no data.
Consumer data, other cases
•Well before the novel coronavirus pandemic, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation decided not to release the results of the all-India Household Consumer Expenditure Survey conducted by the National Statistical Office during 2017-2018. The results of the Survey would have come before the 2019 parliamentary elections. But the Government waited for after the results, offering an excuse in November 2019 that there were “data quality issues”. It is pertinent to note that leaks from the data had suggested a noteworthy slump in consumption expenditure, an ominous proposition that showed this for the first time since data collection had started in 1972-73.
•The no data declarations have continued this year. The Government told Parliament in this monsoon session that the number of deaths caused by manual scavenging were not available. On the lack of oxygen claiming lives in the second wave of COVID-19, the Government said it had no information. On the number of farmers dead during the farmers’ agitation, it has been a stubborn stonewall of no data. On the economic loss caused due to Internet shutdowns, in which India has the world record for the most by any democracy, the Government said it had no information. On a parliamentary question on vaccine shortage, clear as day with a number of inoculation centres shutting down due to no doses, the Union Minister of State for Health declared in Parliament (written reply to the Rajya Sabha) on July 20, that there was no shortage of vaccines.
•The Government understands the power of constructing a narrative using data. The power of the ₹1.76-lakh crore ‘notional loss’ due to airwaves sold during the second term of the United Progressive Alliance government was a datapoint that was used masterfully to weave a narrative. A serious attempt to comprehend why it is saying no data is important, because this is no trivial matter but critical to a larger political project.
Hands off responsibility
•The first reason why ‘no data’ is to be maintained is easy to understand. If the Government were to acknowledge any data, even if these were highly discounted numbers, it would be tantamount to entering the ring and opening itself up to scrutiny as being accountable for the mess and deterioration in the state of affairs. “Thank You Modiji” has replaced Acche Din on Government advertisements across the board, embodying the total personalisation of governance. The flip side is that any failure by the Government would imply failure of this centralised machine that continually claims credit. Denial of data on important markers of governance, delivery and issues that matter to people — whether it is farmers killing themselves, people consuming far less than before, hunger rising, the mismanagement of the pandemic or the botch-up in the vaccine policy — keeps responsibility at bay. If the Government knows, it must be responsible. And conversely, if it does not, it can pretend no one died or no one lost jobs and that the failures did not occur at all.
Bounced to States
•The second reason for not acknowledging facts or numbers is to deflect accountability to the only other unit of power that continues to stand and challenge the Centre — and that is State governments. The fall in the share of taxes due to States has never been so low in five years, as it is now. To continue to mesmerise citizens and keep them invested in the benefits of centralisation, washing hands off responsibility is critical for the Union government. Acknowledging data or information of failures derails the project and the creation of alternate facts is very important. This needs not just avoidance of responsibility but deflection from vital issues. So, we continually hear variants of “health is a State subject.” India was told that there was no data on deaths due to ‘no oxygen’ because States did not give the data. And if it is not the States, it must be the political Opposition or past governments that will be held accountable by the Centre.
•The third reason, apart from the direct evasion of responsibility and accountability, why ‘no data’ is consistently maintained is that it allows regimes to rewrite the story of the times. This is not about rewriting history but about retaining the power to script the present at a future date. The truth does not matter, the narrative does. Recently, crucial health data from the National Health Mission’s Health Management Information System went missing. It was only after data-watchers made a fuss that the data on the website was restored. Consider giving absolutely no data for the lack of oxygen deaths. The news cycle allows public memory to be only that long. It might be fully possible to tell the story of oxygen in the second wave in a year’s time, by writing fiction, if data on it is simply withheld now. If data on this subject were provided now, it narrows the flight of how far spin can go on to market a dismal failure as a success.
Widening information gap
•Information is power and a lack of information is the absence of power. There is a gigantic and growing information gap between the state and citizens. The state is building the largest ever technology-driven structure ever built by India for identification under Aadhaar, which wants biometrics before poor people even get their food grain rations. The state wants to be able to use facial recognition tools before putting in place a legal framework to be able to do so. All this data is sought to be extracted from citizens while it is trying to maintain an effective ‘no data’ position on the biggest snooping revelations that an international consortium has exposed globally, after the National Security Agency (NSA) revelations in the United States by Edward Snowden. The asymmetry of power can only be sustained by keeping citizens in the dark while increasing the rulers’ reach to know everything about everyone else.
•Moreover, there is a certain brazenness in saying with a straight face and on record, at constitutional fora such as Parliament, that the Government does not have the data. It is seen to feed the public image of a ‘strong ruler’ by demonstrating unbridled authority and unconstrained power, but this partly is also apiece with the information skew — encouraged not only because the Government does not wish to part with data but because denying citizens the data helps to restate the emergent power equation between the Government and citizens. It is something that Right To Information activists witness routinely as they try and exercise their ‘right’ to get information. Lest the total concentration of power with the rulers get diluted, the data will not be given, shared or made easily available.
•Sometimes, dead citizens speak up. At the height of the second wave of COVID-19, when poor and hapless citizens ended up burying their dead relatives on the shores of the Ganga, it was taken as the end of the matter. But being in denial did not help when it rained. Sixty buried bodies floated up on the banks of Allahabad’s Phaphamau on July 30, and the Uttar Pradesh State government was forced to perform their last rites that night.
Challenge before citizens
•But those were exceptional and dramatic circumstances. Eventually, lived experiences of people, those whose kith and kin died due to lack of oxygen, or of those who died of COVID-19 begging for medical aid, will have to challenge the Government narrative. This can be a tall order, expecting citizens to hold their reality as a contrast to sarkari spin, that too in a situation where several institutions and a large section of the media have turned into government mouthpieces.
•Denial of data is not a bug but a feature of the political ideology governing the country. In a scenario where a majority of citizens may be dead to the truth of their times, the challenge would be for them to recognise the truth and unhesitatingly push for it. It is a long road, but good and truthful information is the very basis of the quality of democracy. It matters to fight this fight.
📰 The police we need
India requires a police force that is responsive and respected and not one that is feared, as is the case today
•Ranjeeta Sharma, an Indian Police Service (IPS) probationer from Haryana, bagged the honour recently of commanding the passing-out parade at the National Police Academy (NPA). She won two awards: the Best All-round IPS Probationer and the Sword of Honour for the Best Outdoor Probationer. Interestingly, the honour of being the Best Probationer went to a woman officer, Kiran Shruthi, last year too.
The ideal police officer
•The choice of the probationer commanding the passing-out parade is reasonably objective. It takes into account both the outdoor performance and classroom performance of a trainee. The probationer cannot be a mere bookworm or a brawny athlete excelling in activities such as ceremonial parade or horse riding; he or she is expected to be an all-rounder. The Best Probationer award recognises good conduct, empathy and a quick reflex. These are the ideal qualities of the police who are required to intervene in dangerous situations and also go to the rescue of the poorest when they are harassed by anti-social elements.
•The most positive feature today is that many IPS officers are technology savvy. This augurs well for the future of law enforcement in India. Even the lower rungs of the police, who do not belong to the elitist IPS, are avid in the use of technology, especially for regulating public assemblies and solving crimes.
•India stands out for entrusting independent responsibility to IPS officers even in the early years of their induction. This is why an IPS assignment is not only prestigious but is laden with unparalleled trust in an inexperienced youth just out of university. Only a few come in with previous work experience.
•However, it is distressing to note the declining levels of integrity among senior IPS officers who are expected to be role models for their junior colleagues. Recently, a case of alleged extortion was registered against a former Mumbai Police Commissioner. A senior IPS officer in Tamil Nadu was recently served a charge sheet in court in connection with a case pertaining to the sexual harassment of a woman officer. Nothing can be more disgraceful for a premier police force.
•Glittering passing-out parades therefore seem mere window dressing. The NPA has the greatest role in building character. This is where its success is only modest.
•What does an average citizen want from the police? Citizens desire a friendly police force which treats the rich and poor alike. They would also like to see less rapacious police stations where they receive service to which they are entitled, without having to pay any bribe. Except in a few places in the country, most citizens don’t get all this.
•We are still a country where crime against women is high. Arguing that this is the case in many other countries is no consolation. While many quote data, we would like not to do that since the available data have many issues: there is under-reporting of cases, and the police often refuse to register complaints made. We would rather go by perceptions about the police capacity and interest. The popular belief is that India is still not safe for women. The gang rape and murder in 2012 of a young woman in Delhi left an indelible scar not merely on the face of the Delhi Police but on the whole Indian police force. This is just one example — there are many more.
Occupying public positions
•In this context, it is important to mention the management of police personnel. In an ideal world, brilliant and straightforward officials would be chosen to occupy public positions calling for objectivity and skill. Unfortunately, this is not the case with IPS appointments. Many officers are given plum posts based on their links and loyalty to the ruling party. A silver lining, however, is the Supreme Court mandate laying down the process for selection of Director General of Police. The State government now has to make the appointment from a panel of three names approved by the Union Public Service Commission. This will ensure that no outrageous appointments are made.
•Ultimately it is the honest and hard-working officer at the top who will make the difference between good and tendentious policing. India needs a police force that is responsive and respected and not one that is feared, as is the case now. But for that, we need to know why some young men and women officers with a distinguished educational record and who often come from middle and lower sections of the society deviate from the path of virtue after solid training at the NPA. Is this because of faulty selection or poor supervision? Or is it due to the fact that new arrivals no longer have role models like the ones we had in the past?
📰 Keeping an eye on China’s expanding nuclear stack
Even if there is contention about the scope and prospective size of Beijing’s capabilities, India needs to be watchful
•More evidence emerged recently that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is expanding the size of its nuclear arsenal by building more missile silos. The debate, though, surrounding China’s nuclear build-up is mired in considerable dispute. The source of contention is over the scope and prospective size of the PRC’s nuclear capabilities. The construction of the nuclear missile silo field in Xinjiang region in western China indicates the PRC is fielding a larger nuclear force based on fixed land-based capabilities. The site is believed to host 110 silos. This development comes against the backdrop of evidence that China had built a site with 120 silos in the arid region of Yumen, in the Gansu province.
•The most likely reason behind the current expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal is: increase the survivability of its arsenal against a first strike from their nuclear adversaries, most prominently the United States. Washington, which possesses a larger arsenal, stands at 3,800 warheads, and paired with its growing missile defence capabilities poses a threat to Chinese retaliatory nuclear forces. However, other countries too loom large in China’s nuclear expansion such as Russia and India, even if Russia is not an overriding concern presently.
Rate and extent is key
•The key question is not so much why or whether the PRC is expanding its arsenal, but rather the rate and extent of the production. Does China want a usable and deployable atomic stockpile running into thousands of warheads, or does Beijing want an arsenal in the middle to high hundreds? Making a precise estimate of the PRC’s nuclear strength is not easy. However, Chinese nuclear forces stand at roughly anywhere between 250 to 350 nuclear warheads according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) as well as the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).
•Last year, the United States Strategic Command (USTRATCOM) chief Admiral Charles Richard stated that the PRC could double its current operational stockpile which is still in the “low 200s” over the next decade. However, the current silo-based missile expansion being undertaken by the PRC can be misleading, because the PRC’s quest might be as much to conceal the number of missiles tipped with nuclear warheads in its possession as it is to disassemble and deceive by building a large number of decoy missile silos.
A first strike strategy
•Land-based nuclear capabilities also enable the Chinese to present a nuclear adversary with a larger menu of targets to strike, exhausting a large number of the enemy’s missiles in a first strike. Indeed, some of the decoy silos are meant to absorb and exhaust a part of the enemy’ first strike nuclear forces. Thus, the larger the target list for any potential opponent, the greater the chances of China’s arsenal surviving a first strike thereby boosting the credibility of China’s nuclear deterrent. In all probability, the PRC is expanding its nuclear forces if not to match the larger nuclear forces fielded by the Americans and the Russians, but sufficient to withstand a first strike and then execute a retaliatory attack that would defeat U.S. missile defences.
•China’s nuclear tipped ballistic missiles forces, whether land-based or sea-based, have certainly improved in quantity and quality. The PRC’s Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) capabilities and Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) capabilities in the form of the Dongfeng-41 (DF-41) and the DF-26, respectively, are its most potent land-based missile systems. At least 16 launchers of the DF-26 are known to be deployed in the Xinjiang region close to the Sino-Indian border.
•In the case of the first, the silos being built in Xinjiang and Gansu could house DF-41 ICBMs that are capable of carrying multiple warheads much like their road mobile counterparts. In addition, the decoy silos can launch conventional armed ballistic missiles, and since they are likely to be interspersed with nuclear-tipped missiles, they create inadvertent escalation risks.
What New Delhi should track
•Consequently, the latest development of silos presents a grim and disturbing set of consequences for the world and India. The PRC has refused to enter any tripartite arms control negotiations with Americans and Russians that could forestall the deployment of a more numerically robust nuclear arsenal, and possibly sees its current build-up as a necessity to bridge the nuclear asymmetries it faces vis-à-vis Washington and Moscow.
•The growth in China’s nuclear arsenal might not have an immediate impact on India, but its development of land-based nuclear silos in the Xinjiang province should worry decision-makers and strategic elites in New Delhi given the region’s proximity to India. More importantly, it is likely to have an impact on the ongoing boundary stand-off between the two countries in Eastern Ladakh. The issue is not so much actual nuclear use by the PRC against India, but the coercive leverage fixed land-based nuclear capabilities give the Chinese in consolidating their territorial gains in Depsang, Demchok and Gogra-Hotsprings. If anything, it is likely to produce a suppressive effect against any conventional military escalation. The more extreme and adverse outcome for India is that New Delhi is left with no choice but to accept China’s fait accompli.
•The strategic balance between China and India is unlikely to be altered because of the Chinese nuclear expansion, but New Delhi would be wise to keep a close eye on its neighbour and work on enhancing its own strategic capabilities. Amidst an all-round sharpening of great power contestation, the nuclear issue will continue to challenge policymakers.
