📰 PM to attend first Quad Summit on March 12
The summit meeting is expected to begin at 7 p.m. IST on Friday
•Access to COVID-19 vaccines, cooperation on technology, and climate change are at the top of the agenda as Prime Minister Narendra Modi will join U.S. President Joseph Biden, Australian PM Scott Morrison and Japanese PM Yoshihide Suga for a virtual summit of the Quadrilateral Framework (Quad) on Friday — the first time leaders of the Indo-Pacific grouping are meeting.
•The meeting is also one of Mr. Biden’s first multilateral engagements, which the White House said denoted the importance of the U.S.’s cooperation with “allies and partners in the Indo Pacific”.
•The Quad meeting, that China has referred to as an “Indo-Pacific NATO”, will be watched most closely for signals on how the grouping will deal with the challenge from Beijing’s recent moves in the Pacific as well as at the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh. Also of interest is whether the four leaders will issue a joint statement at the end of the meeting, which would be another first, as all Quad engagements thus far have come out with four separate readouts indicating differences in their positions.
•Ahead of the summit, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who will visit Japan and South Korea next week, said he expected to “see something on vaccines” as an outcome of the summit meeting, expected to begin at 7 p.m. IST on Friday.
•In the Quad ministerial summit in February, the four countries had discussed the need for international cooperation to ensure equitable access to vaccines, especially in developing countries. India, the world’s largest manufacturer of vaccines, that has already shipped out more than 48 million doses worldwide, primarily through commercial shipments and the global COVAX alliance, but also as grants, is expected to request Quad investment in order to scale up its outreach further. In addition, India would like to see Western countries, led by the U.S., dilute their opposition to its proposal at the World Trade Organisation to waive Trade Related Intellectual Property (TRIPS) guidelines, so that more vaccines can be produced generically.
•In its statement ahead of the summit, the Ministry of External Affairs had said the leaders would discuss cooperation towards maintaining a “free, open and inclusive” Indo-Pacific region, as well as challenges such as “resilient supply chains, emerging and critical technologies, maritime security, and climate change.”
•Also on the agenda are talks about managing regional crises, including Myanmar, where military rulers continue to ignore global pleas against its decision to jail the elected government and the brutal crackdown on protestors, as well as Afghanistan, where the U.S. has outlined its latest plan to promote talks and chalk out a possible exit of its troops from the conflict.
•The timing of the Quad summit is also significant, as it comes amidst ongoing talks between India and China on the disengagement process at the Line of Actual Control, after a nearly year-long standoff between troops in Ladakh.
•It also comes just ahead of Mr. Blinken’s travels to the region, after which he will fly to Alaska, along with U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan for the first meeting of the Biden Administration with Chinese counterparts Wang Yi and Yang Jiechi. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who will join him in Tokyo and Seoul will then travel to Delhi. As a result, the Quad summit’s outcomes are expected to bear a message on India-China, India-US and US-China relations as well.
•Mr. Wang, who has been sharply critical of the Quad in the past, referred to the upcoming Quad summit in more oblique terms this week, cautioning against “selective multilateralism” and “group politics” in the region.
•Experts said India’s messaging on the Quad has thus far been mixed, referring to it as one of many multilateral arrangements in the region, which should not be “conflated” with India’s Indo-Pacific policy, that encompasses many more countries including the EU, UK, France, Russia and others.
•“India's position has been mature. We have understood that these public platforms are created for certain requirements, [] provided they are transparent and open and they respect the international order,” former Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale said at a seminar on India-China relations organised by Carnegie India, adding that China’s opposition to the Quad is unwarranted, given that the Quadrilateral Framework has “no treaty, no structure, and no secretariat” at present.
Earth observation, lunar cooperation and satellite navigation figure in discussion
•Indian and Japanese space agencies on Thursday reviewed cooperation in earth observation, lunar cooperation and satellite navigation, and also agreed to explore opportunities for cooperation in “space situational awareness and professional exchange programme”.
•This was agreed during a bilateral meeting between the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) held virtually.
•“Both agencies signed an Implementing Arrangement for collaborative activities on rice crop area and air quality monitoring using satellite data,” an ISRO statement said.
•India and Japan are already working on a joint lunar polar exploration (LUPEX) mission and the two space agencies have been working on the mission that aims to send a lander and rover to the Moon’s south pole around 2024.
•Early this month, India and Italy decided to explore opportunities in earth observation, space science and robotic and human exploration.
•Last month, India and Australia signed an amendment to the MoU which will build on the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Both countries are also in discussions for Australia to host vital tracking infrastructure to support the Gaganyaan manned space flight mission.
📰 China’s new Five-Year Plan outlines push for key strategic projects
The draft outline of the Five-Year Plan (FYP) and objectives through the year 2035 were passed by the National People’s Congress.
•China on Thursday formally approved the outline of its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), which highlights a number of key strategic projects to be pursued as a priority including the first dam in Tibet on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo or Brahmaputra, a Sichuan-Tibet railway line near the India border, and a push for self-sufficiency in emerging industries such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).
•The draft outline of the Five-Year Plan (FYP) and objectives through the year 2035 were passed by the National People’s Congress, the ceremonial legislature, as it closed its six-day annual session. Among the key projects is the building of a hydropower base on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo, which refers to the sections of the river in Tibet just before it enters India in Arunachal Pradesh. While four dams have been approved on the upper and middle reaches, this is the first project in the lower reaches of the river. Che Dalha, deputy Communist Party chief of the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), said at the NPC authorities should “strive to begin construction this year” of the dam and for “environmental impact assessments for the project to be approved as soon as possible”.
•India has expressed concerns over the four previously announced dams on the upper and middle reaches, the first of which, in Zangmu, was operationalised in 2015. The impact of the dams on downstream flows is not clear, and Indian officials have said they are monitoring flows of the river closely, both through independent assessments and using the hydrological data that China provides under a bilateral arrangement. The Brahmaputra is not entirely dependent on upstream flows with an estimated 35% of its basin in India, according to officials.
•Dams on the lower reaches and at the Great Bend of the river near the border, which has been cited as a possible location for the new project, would raise worries because of the location across the border from Arunachal Pradesh in an ecologically sensitive canyon. Past projects to tap the enormous hydropower potential of the Great Bend were not given approval, but the inclusion of the project in the FYP suggests it has been sanctioned at the highest level and is now a high-priority official policy, viewed as a key element of a broader push to diversify China’s energy mix and meet a target of peaking carbon emissions by 2030.
•The hydropower base was listed in the outline of the FYP among projects that serve major national strategies, along with the Sichuan-Tibet railway. The FYP highlighted the railway from Ya’an in Sichuan to Nyingchi in Tibet as a key infrastructure project. It also called to “advance the preparatory work” for building a railway line from Xigaze in Tibet to Gyirong along the Tibet-Nepal border, which is part of an already agreed plan to build a cross-border railway link connecting China and Nepal. The FYP also emphasised opening up access to key border highways including the strategically important G219 national highway that runs along the entire length of the India-China border in Xinjiang and Tibet.
•The rail from Ya’an to Nyingchi in Tibet, which lies just across from Arunachal Pradesh, is the first segment of a line that will eventually run to Lhasa and is the second major rail link from China’s hinterland to Tibet. President Xi Jinping in November officially “gave the instruction” to begin work on the project, calling it “a major step in safeguarding national unity and a significant move in promoting economic and social development of the western region.” Zhu Weiqun, a senior Party official formerly in charge of Tibet policy, said last year the railway will help “transport advanced equipment and technologies from the rest of China to Tibet and bring local products out” and “if a scenario of a crisis happens at the border, the railway can act as a ‘fast track’ for the delivery of strategic materials.”
•Beyond the strategic infrastructure projects, the broader goal of the FYP and the 2035 outline emphasised establishing China’s self-sufficiency in key high-tech industries. While the FYP for the first time did not outline a growth target, it listed an annual target to increase R&D spending “by more than 7% per year”. It said China “will take self-reliance in science and technology as strategic underpinning for national development” and “will focus on the development of strategic emerging industries including information technology, biotech and new energy”. The plan said China “will implement a series of forward-looking and strategic major national sci-tech projects in frontier fields of artificial intelligence, quantum information, integrated circuits, life and health, brain science, gene technologies and clinical medicine.”
📰 Scope for scandal: On court orders restraining media
Omnibus orders restraining media should not end up as a tool of harassment
•It is quite regrettable that politicians are often hit by scandals arising from leaked footage purportedly showing them in intimate proximity with women. The latest episode involves former Karnataka Minister Ramesh Jarkiholi, who resigned in the wake of visuals allegedly showing him in such a situation. Speculation about the existence of more such compact discs that could surface in the media has resulted in a lawyer and BJP member obtaining an interim High Court order, that media organisations should abide strictly by the Programme Code prescribed under the Cable Television Networks (Regulation) Act. About 70 media organisations, including television channels, social media platforms, digital media outlets and newspapers have been arrayed as respondents. The order is unexceptionable. The broadcast media are expected to conform to the Code. However, when such an omnibus order is passed, it could become a tool of harassment. Under the Act, district magistrates, sub-divisional magistrates and police commissioners are the ‘authorised officers’ to ensure that the Programme Code is not breached. The Bengaluru Police Commissioner has also issued an order prohibiting the broadcasting of anything that breaches the Code. The Code, which is part of the Cable Television Network Rules, is widely worded. For instance, anything that offends good taste or decency, or amounts to criticism of friendly countries, are violations. It also considers defamation, half-truths and innuendo as potential violations. In the absence of judicial orders, it may be unsafe to leave such matters to the discretion of the ‘authorised officer’.
•A key consideration to decide on the content of any broadcast that may be controversial is whether it touches upon any public interest. In this case, it is not merely the private moment of a serving Minister, but his public conduct that is under scrutiny — for the allegation is that he had promised a job to a woman in exchange for sexual favours. That he and others said to be contemplating preventive legal action against the future release of such footage were defectors who brought about the fall of the JD(S)-Congress government not long ago, would impart the episode with a deeper cause for a thorough investigation. Of course, in the absence of any complaint from the woman, or even any knowledge about her, it is difficult to prove any wrongdoing. And not even public interest can justify a flagrant breach of privacy of anyone, or the depiction of women in a derogatory manner. But sections of the media may have considered that there is enough public interest to draw attention to the footage, even if they had no intention to air it. The onus is on media outlets to show discretion in dealing with such ‘leaks’. Greater discretion may be warranted for political leaders, especially those with a record of political dishonesty, for it is difficult to blame the public if they expect the worst of them.
📰 Working towards climate justice in a non-ideal world
New Delhi has to leverage its green commitment to ensure carbon and policy space for its developmental aspirations
•The election of Joe Biden as U.S. President has catapulted climate change to the top of the global agenda, allowing him to keep his promise to “lead a major diplomatic push” to increase global climate ambition. This also works well for him in rebuilding the trans-Atlantic alliance apart from keeping at bay the domestic fissures from a tenuous hold of the Democrats in the U.S. Congress while being resolute on climate change. It is also in line with the legacy ambitions of his team, led by former U.S. Secretary of State, John Kerry (and now Special Presidential Envoy for Climate), with many of them being old climate warriors, some even from the days of the U.S. President, Bill Clinton.
The U.S.’s moves
•Interestingly, the U.S. is not just striding back to the Obama signature achievement of the Paris Accord with its voluntary commitments but also to the Bush days. This is, perhaps, best evidenced by the presidential call to reconvene the Major Economies Forum (MEF) starting with a Leaders’ Climate Summit in April this year.
•The MEF, which was first convened in March 2009, originated in the Bush-era U.S. efforts to rope in major emitters.
•It was also to push a way forward on climate change without heed to the principle of differentiated responsibilities and recognition of historical responsibilities, which are rightly hallowed principles of the climate discourse given the decades of staying power of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. The serious unwillingness of emerging economies to be labelled “major emitters” saw the meeting retitled “Major Economies Meeting” given the clear link between GDP and GHG. While the meeting’s purport was not hidden, the retitling provided a feel-great and one from which retraction was not possible for the emerging economies.
Stern message, border levies
•This time the push appears to have come to shove, with all countries being told to commit to net zero (GHG emissions) by 2050 with credible plans to ensure meeting this domestic target. Indeed, the Chinese, who posited themselves as reaching there by 2060, have been sternly told to be there a decade earlier.
•Taking a cue from the new U.S. Administration, the UN Secretary-General has even called on countries to declare national climate emergencies apart from building a coalition for a carbon-neutral world by 2050. As of today, countries representing around 65% of global CO2 emissions have already agreed to this. The UN Secretary-General would like this figure to reach 90% within 2021.
•These plans and their implementation will, undoubtedly, be subject to international reviews and verification. Not said as yet, but non-compliance may not be just naming and shaming. Historical responsibilities and differentiation, obviously, have no place in this discourse; but neither does the level of development. India, with its huge population and now one of the world’s largest economies, can easily be in the crosshairs of such a discourse no matter its extraordinarily small carbon footprint in per-capita terms and huge development imperatives.
•Adding to the challenges of this proposed global goal is the distinct possibility of the EU imposing carbon border levies on those who do not take on high carbon cut-down targets and do so unilaterally if there is no global agreement. While as of now the U.S. Administration appears ambivalent on these border levies, the possibility of their coming around cannot be ruled out. In such a scenario, World Trade Organization rules that presently exclude the use of tariffs on environmental grounds will certainly get modified.
A fund pay-in idea
•The issue of money, especially the lack of it, is a perennial one in the climate discourse. In this context, Raghuram Rajan has recently put forward a proposal for India to consider — it calls on countries to pay into a global fund amounts based on their carbon emissions over and above the global per-capita average of five tons. This obviously disincentives coal in a big way while incentivising renewables. Those above the global average would pay, while those below would receive the monies. While this would suggest a certain equity, it may be unacceptable to the developed countries even though Mr. Rajan has gone along with the drumbeat to forget historical responsibility.
•As far as India is concerned, for starters such a proposal may appear attractive as India today has per capita CO2 emission of only 2 tons and is a global record setter in pushing renewables. But will real politics allow a major economy to benefit from such fund flows or indeed even be the recipient of any form of concessional climate finance? Unlikely.
•Moreover, the long-term implications of such a proposal in a setting of a sharply growing economy and reliance on coal-produced electricity for several decades require examination in detail, quite apart from factoring in the twists and turns that negotiations could give to such an idea. And then, of course, there are alternatives such as emission trading.
•Furthermore, the proposal focuses on current and future emissions, and in keeping with the contract and converge approach, allows practical considerations to trump fairness by not only giving a short shrift to historical responsibility but also denying priority access to the remaining carbon space for developing countries. In that sense, it double penalises them while giving developed countries a certain free pass. Here it bears noting that more than 75% of the carbon space available to humankind to keep global temperature rises to 1.5° C has already been taken up by the developed world and China.
•Climate negotiations are not just about the environment and human well being or even energy, but are also about global governance, and will henceforth be pursued with a vigour which requires India to carefully calibrate its approach including on the economic and political fronts. Climate justice is an imperative for India, which needs to leverage its green and pro-nature commitment to ensure carbon and policy space for its developmental and global aspirations. India’s diplomatic and negotiating efforts must be quickly geared to that end.
