📰 India, China troops clashed at Naku La
Minor face-off last week, says Army;no info to offer, says Beijing
•Indian and Chinese troops clashed at Naku La in north Sikkim last week, in what the Army termed a “minor face-off”, resulting in some minor injuries on both sides, it has been learnt.
•“It is clarified that there was a minor face-off at Naku La area of north Sikkim on January 20, 2021, and the same was resolved by local commanders as per established protocols,” the Army said in a statement.
•China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said at a daily briefing in Beijing that he had “no information to offer” on the incident but “would like to stress the Chinese border troops are committed to upholding peace and tranquillity along the border with India”.
•The clash occurred as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops attempted to intrude into Indian territory, a defence source said. There were some minor injuries on both sides, but the situation was resolved and under control, the source added.
•There was a clash at Naku La on the night of May 9 last, which also saw injuries on both sides. There was a clash at Pangong Tso also at that time as the nine-month-long stand-off began at several locations across eastern Ladakh.
Digital voter ID cards launched on National Voters Day
•President Ram Nath Kovind on Monday said it was important to respect the right to vote, which was something that people around the world had struggled to achieve.
•Addressing the Election Commission’s National Voters Day celebrations virtually, Mr. Kovind said he would like to remind that “we should always respect the valuable right to vote. The right to vote is not a simple right; people around the world have struggled a lot for this”, a Rashtrapati Bhavan statement said.
•Mr. Kovind said it was the responsibility of all, particularly the youth, to exercise their franchise with sincerity.
•Earlier in the event, Law Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad handed out elector photo identity cards and the digital version, e-EPICs, to a handful of newly enrolled electors.
•The digital voter ID cards would be available for download by all electors with valid EPIC numbers from February 1, while new electors who applied for EPICs in November and December would be able to download their digital cards from Monday.
•Mr. Prasad said ordinary Indians knew that they could unseat any political party or leader, no matter how popular they were.
Awards given
•During the event, where Chief Election Commissioner Sunil Arora and Election Commissioners Sushil Chandra and Rajiv Kumar spoke, the Election Commission gave out awards to officials and civil society members for their contribution towards holding elections.
•Among those awarded were the late Binod Kumar, an IPS officer who died from COVID-19, which he contracted during his review of election preparations in Purnea district in Bihar.
📰 ‘RBI proposals for NBFCs don’t address key issues’
Funding, liquidity ignored: Moody’s
•The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) recent discussion paper proposing tighter regulations for non-bank finance companies (NBFCs), if implemented, would result in the companies becoming more resilient to credit shocks.
•However, the proposals do not address NBFCs’ funding and liquidity, the key credit weakness of the sector, Moody’s Investors Service said in a report.
•It said the proposal would commit the largest 25-30 NBFCs to regulations similar to banks in terms of capital, credit concentration and governance.
•“The proposed new regulations would result in largely harmonised rules between banks and NBFCs on capital and leverage, which would reduce the regulatory arbitrage opportunities for NBFCs against the banks in their lending decisions,” Moody’s said.
•“However, no changes are proposed to the NBFCs’ current lighter liquidity rules,” it added.
•Stating that banks are subject to strict regulations on maintaining a minimum cash reserve ratio and statutory liquidity reserve, the Moody’s Investors Service report said that these conditions had not been imposed on NBFCs.
📰 Budgeting in a time of crisis
Keynesian economics offers guidelines for preparing the Budget
•The Great Depression wrecked the economies of the U.S. and Europe. In the words of Jonathan Alter, when Franklin Roosevelt became the American President in 1933, he was told: “Mr. President, if your programme succeeds you would be the greatest President in American history. If it fails, you will be the worst one”. Roosevelt replied: “If it fails, I will be the last one”.
•Today the U.S. is facing its worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Like Roosevelt, President Joe Biden is launching the American Rescue Plan to revive the economy. His $1.9 trillion plan proposes $1,400 per-person payments, increased unemployment benefits, assistance to local governments, support for accelerated vaccine rollout, investments to get children back in school, and a minimum wage of $15 an hour.
•In India, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Union Budget on February 1, 2021. The pandemic has severely affected growth. The government was quick to announce a package of Rs. 20 lakh crore. Fiscal deficit could overshoot the target set by the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act. Spending more is going to be difficult. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, unemployment, both rural and urban, is surging, and health and infrastructure budgets are getting stretched. How much can the government afford to spend and in what direction? Can Keynesian economics offer guidelines?
The Paul Krugman principles
•Noble Laureate Paul Krugman has offered advice against too much of caution in dealing with the economic mess. He has laid down the rules for budget-making. The first rule is to not doubt the power of the government to help. Government spending can be hugely beneficial. The Affordable Care Act, for instance, led to a decline in the number of Americans without health insurance, and gave people a sense of security. The second is to not be obsessed with debt. Economists agree that debt is far less a problem than conventional wisdom asserts. Interest rates are low by historical standards. The burden of servicing debt is low. The third rule is to not worry about inflation. We can run a ‘hot economy’ with low unemployment and large budget deficits, without runaway inflation. The fourth is to not count on bipartisan support.
The Indian context
•India’s GDP is estimated at Rs. 200 lakh crore. The first priority for spending should be health and infrastructure. India has only five beds for 10,000 Indians and ranks 155th on bed availability in the Human Development Report of 2020. Experts opine that the government should increase healthcare spending from 1.5% of the GDP to 2.5%.
•The National Infrastructure Pipeline aims to invest Rs. 111 lakh crore by 2025 in over 6,800 projects. The proposal to set up a Development Finance Institution is still on the anvil. The Chinese government has entered into building social housing projects. As pointed out by the economists in India Today , expenditure on infrastructure can have a large multiplier effect on economic output.
•Suggestions have been made for the introduction of an urban employment guarantee scheme on the lines of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme. This will be far better than direct cash transfers. The stumbling block to budgetary efforts to spend can be the resource crunch. Despite historic lows in fuel prices, the government chose to increase fuel prices to record levels. The Goods and Services Tax has been a big source of revenue. There is a strong case for reducing GST tariff. Cess or surcharge can be levied on the super-rich. Disinvestment must go on at high speed. The average tariff must come down to 10% from its current level of 14% by 2024, as suggested by Professor Arvind Panagariya. He wrote: “With several key reforms – new labour codes, new farm laws, Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, low corporate profit tax, single nationwide GST and widespread digitisation – already in place, the addition of privatisation and trade liberalisation would nearly guarantee a double digit growth and millions of additional well-paid jobs for the masses in the post-Covid-19 decades.”
•Ms. Sitharaman has left significant imprints in the Budgets she has presented. The lowering of corporate tax rates, the introduction of the option to choose the tax rate both for companies and for individuals up to fixed monetary limits, the introduction of the Vivad se Vishwas scheme without sacrificing revenue, and the structured infusion of fiscal stimulus without accelerating inflation all point to a right approach to Budget-making. We can expect a never-before Budget to be presented to meet the crisis created by COVID-19. The super-rich must co-operate without insisting on tax concessions.
📰 The script of another ‘parade’ on Republic Day
The protesting farmers have revitalised the democratic polity and the Republic now stands morally recharged
•The January 26 ‘parade’ on the Rajpath in the nation’s capital is permanently lodged in the national imagination as the finest republican rite. The ritual is designed to underline the republican nature of our governing arrangement, by demonstrating to ourselves — and, to the world — that the armed forces formally offer salute and respect to the civilian authority, symbolised by the President of India. This theme will be re-affirmed this year also, notwithstanding that the traditional parade has over the years been used to ‘show-case’ India’s military might. There will be no dilution of this national celebration.
•Yet, the capital will also witness another parade — a parallel march by the (protesting) farmers, all in their loose-fitting uniforms of insurrection. This tractor rally can only be showcased as a veritable carnival of defiance and a festival of protest. Never before has the Republic been presented with such a rival celebration of democracy.
A crisis by the functionaries
•The contrast between the two celebrations brings the nation face to face with a crisis creeping upon us — a crisis of legitimacy of traditional politics. Ironically enough, the crisis has been precipitated by those very functionaries who are entrusted with the responsibility of upholding the Republic and nourishing its democratic sustainability.
•As the farmers protest the three contentious “farm laws”, the government argues that it is merely trying to ‘reform’ the agriculture sector. The NITI Aayog managers and other corporate hired hands are entitled to chant the ‘reform’ mantra. But each and every ‘reform’ entails a certain social cost and economic pain, and it is the task of democratic politics to strive for a balance between pain and gain through a process of conciliation and compromise.
•However, that traditional responsibility no longer finds favour with the rulers of the “new India”. Consequently, the farmers, too, have felt compelled to go beyond the traditional intermediaries of political parties and have confronted the Narendra Modi regime with a non-party upsurge. The farmers’ siege is not just against these three laws; they are challenging three crucial elements in Mr. Modi’s inexorable authoritarian project.
It is only one voice
•First, the Modi project vehemently insists on denying authenticity to voices other than those from the Sangh Parivar. The ruling clique arrogates to itself not only the monopoly of desh bhakti but also claims a total control over wisdom, gyaan , initiative and inspiration; correspondingly, it denies legitimacy to civil society and its voices. Not for it a contraption such as a National Advisory Council. All non-Parivar non-governmental organisations are suspect in its eyes, just as the very idea of a social movement is denied any validity.
•Predictably, the ruling clique has vindictively used the agencies of the state — the Central Bureau of Investigation, the National Investigation Agency, the Enforcement Directorate, the intelligence agencies, the income-tax man, etc — to harass, coerce and eventually neutralise and silence dissent and dissenters. It continuously updates its blue book of tricks — how to disrupt, discredit and diffuse democratic dissent; and, it has perfected the standard operating procedure on how to use and manipulate the media to demonise democratic ideas, sentiments, grievances and anxieties.
Manipulate and marginalise
•Second, the Modi project is pivoted on an unprecedented use of the state’s resources to manufacture consent for the ruling clique and to fabricate adulation for the Leader. In this quest, society’s inherent capacity for notions of nationalism, patriotism, xenophobia have been cynically exploited; the armed forces and their valour have been manipulated for the ruling clique’s narrow partisan ends.
•Third, all these exertions and excesses have resulted in the marginalisation of the traditional political parties; the manufactured euphoria and exultation for the ruling clique have been used to devalue the most sacred site of traditional politics — Parliament. Conventional wisdom holds that in a parliamentary democracy, the Opposition must have its say while the government must have its way; now, the Opposition is not even allowed a say. Once Parliament got degraded, it was easy to browbeat the other constitutional institutions — the judiciary, the Election Commission of India, etc — into becoming the ruling clique’s enablers.
•Cumulatively, parliamentary democracy stands debilitated as the effective instrument of compromise, conciliation and harmony. And the government reaps what it has sown. Unsurprisingly, the farmers see no merit in the three laws almost dubiously passed by Parliament; nor do they trust the government’s assurance, no trust in its word; and, even the Supreme Court was indirectly conveyed that its intervention was not going to make a difference.
Misreading the farmers
•Having choked off all conventional avenues of negotiations and grievance -resolution, the Modi government found itself confronted in a losing stand-off with the farmers. With all the familiar arrogance of an authoritarian regime, the ruling clique failed to read the Punjab protesters. They represent an old tradition of defiance of the imperial imposition. For want of a better term, let us call it the Bhagat Singh constituency. The farmer-activists have re-discovered the old spirit of defiance and are happily prepared for consequences and sacrifices. For the first time in the last seven years, the ruling clique has not been able to win the moral argument.
Bad optics for government
•On the contrary, for the first time, there is an Opposition that is not prepared to cede any kind of moral superiority to the Modi regime. The optics are all to the government’s disadvantage — small and marginal farmers fighting to safeguard themselves against the predatory corporate giants and the ruling clique has to position itself in this fight against the small man. Worse, the farmers have blunted the Modi regime’s standard operating procedure in dealing with Opposition voices and groups — unlike the Shaheen Bagh protest, the farmers could not be demonised as Pakistani agents, or as the Khalistani agents provocateurs; worse, a Hindu-Muslim divide could not be introduced. The onus was and remains on the Modi regime to fire the first shot.
•The farmers have created their own imaginary Stalingrad, exhilarated in defiance, unyielding in defence of their land — and they have worked out a morally-uplifting narrative, with heroes, martyrs and joyful sacrifices. They have displayed discipline, solidarity and purpose in challenging the Modi regime and its authoritarian encroachments. In this insubordination, bordering on subversion, the protesting farmers have revitalised the democratic polity; and, because of their upsurge, the Republic stands morally recharged. No small achievement this.
📰 The time for not mass but targeted vaccination
In the endemic phase, which India seems to be entering, the strategy should aim to prevent deaths, eradicate COVID-19
•While the COVID-19 pandemic rages on in the United States and the United Kingdom, the scene is very different in India with the peak having passed in mid-September 2020, and there now being a current sustained down-trend. In the last four weeks (December 24-January 21), the reported average daily infections were 22,263; 15,805; 15,541 and 13,956. The epidemic phase is coming to an end, and the endemic phase, imminent.
The dynamics
•A person-to-person transmitted infection is endemic, when, on the average, each infection reproduces another, for ‘reproduction number’ R = 1. When R = > 1, daily infections increase, signalling rapid spread — the ascending limb of an epidemic curve. Post-peak, the curve declines, with R = <1. Finally, when R settles down to ~1, infection is endemic — daily number of new infections remains stable with minor fluctuations.
•The transmission dynamics of ‘endemicity’ is interesting. During this steady state, the population is a pool of individuals wherein one infected person infects only one other person, the number of daily infections remaining constant. By our estimates of the daily new births in India, by age six, around 54,000 survive over time. Therefore, we add 54,000 susceptible subjects daily to the pool, disturbing this equilibrium. If, in spite of this addition, daily infections remain constant, it implies that new infections equal the susceptible subjects entering the pool. In India, during the COVID-19 endemic phase, average daily infections will be ~54,000 with minor fluctuations.
•Only a fraction of total infections is detected by current testing strategy. To get the true numbers, we need to use arithmetic and the principle of triangulation.
•The reported numbers can be used to compute the true number. During January 15-21, the reported daily number averaged 13,956. The currently popular rapid antigen test detects only 50% of infections; so, the actual number of new infections is double that number, about 28,000.
•Nowadays, we mostly test symptomatic individuals, who account for only about half of total infections. Hence, the daily new infections may be 56,000, only 2,000 more than 54,000 — India is very close to reaching endemic state.
•Can we corroborate this with the most unequivocal numbers that we have, namely mortality statistics?
•The average daily COVID-19 deaths were 163 last week. As mortality certification is only 20% in India, the estimated number of daily COVID-19 deaths (highest estimate) may be five-fold — 815. Our COVID-19 case-fatality is 1%, occurring approximately four weeks from the initial symptoms. Therefore, the number of infections four weeks ago (third week of December) was about 81,500. The epidemic, as per the mortality graph, is waning with a halving time of four weeks. By the third week of January, the daily infections would have declined from 81,500 to 40,750. In short, by the third week of January 2021, India could have already entered endemic phase.
•The shape of the epidemic curve in India, a large monophasic wave, negates urban-rural delay in the spread of the novel coronavirus infection; presumably because of the ‘leaky lock-down’ — even the first sero-survey showed considerable rural spread. Therefore, another wave is unlikely.
•When the epidemic enters the endemic phase, herd immunity threshold (for COVID-19 ~60% of population infected) is reached. Now is a critical moment in COVID-19 epidemiology — to design appropriate vaccination strategy for the current endemic phase.
Action after a missed chance
•In Europe, the U.S. and Brazil, where there is on-going rapid epidemic spread, the appropriate strategic objective is mass vaccination to curtail spread. This window of opportunity to curtail the epidemic was missed in India — the emergency-use authorisation of vaccines was too late.
•In the endemic phase, which India seems to be entering, the strategy should be carefully crafted to eliminate COVID-19 deaths and to eradicate the viral infection altogether from the country. Now is the time for targeted, instead of mass vaccination.
•Vaccinating health-care staff is a humanitarian and public health imperative; we need a well-protected workforce to deliver care confidently to vulnerable patients without unwittingly transmitting the virus. The public health system need not be taxed — when the vaccine is supplied to health-care institutions, staff manage the rest.
•Young people have gradually resumed normal day-to-day activities, transport services restored, educational institutions opening up, and movie theatres permitted to operate. The 60% of the population which got infected for reaching herd immunity threshold are predominantly healthy youngsters. The elderly and the vulnerable with comorbidity who remained cocooned are at risk of infection, severe disease and mortality.
What the priority should be
•India’s first priority should be targeted vaccination to prevent deaths. Citizens above 55 years and those below 55 with diabetes, hypertension, obesity, chronic lung, heart and kidney diseases should be vaccinated first — through local governments (corporations, municipalities and panchayats), utilising already available data in the Aadhaar database. Enumeration, registration and vaccination by appointments need not be delayed any further.
•As schools reopen, children could acquire infection at school and transmit it to parents and grandparents. Priority vaccination of teachers and ancillary staff would be an essential strategy, along with all protective measures — masks, physical distancing, hand hygiene — until vaccination is approved in children.
•An opportune priority is to design an innovative approach for the elimination of the coronavirus infection from the country, in our self-interest and to encourage the resolve for global eradication. Now is the time to lay its foundation; delays may render the disease non-eradicable for two biological reasons.
Mutations, animal reservoirs
•The virus is mutating and new ‘variants’ are emerging. If new ‘strains’ emerge, the present vaccines may not be protective and new vaccines may have to be designed. Eradication must pre-empt such eventuality.
•Second, now the virus transmission is only human to human, there is no animal reservoir. Animals of the feline (cat, tiger, lion, leopard) and canine (dogs, raccoons) families are vulnerable to human-animal transmission, but not vice-versa. Mustelidae (mink, weasels, ferrets and badgers) and Cervidae (farmed deer) are vulnerable and can transmit the virus to humans. They may form animal reservoirs, rendering eradication impossible.
•Before these risks become real, COVID-19 must be eradicated.
📰 Galwan hero gets Maha Vir Chakra honour
President approves award of 455 gallantry and other defence decorations on the eve of Republic Day
•Colonel B. Santhosh Babu, Commanding Officer of 16 Bihar regiment deployed in Galwan during Operation Snow Leopard, who lost his life along with 19 others in the violent clash with Chinese troops in June, has been posthumously selected for the Maha Vir Chakra (MVC), the second highest wartime gallantry award of India.
•Five other personnel deployed there have been named for the Vir Chakra (VrC), which is the third highest wartime gallantry award.
Vir Chakras
•Hav. Tejinder Singh from 2 Medium Regiment will get the Vir Chakra along with four others posthumously — Nb Sub Nuduram Soren and Nk Deepak Singh from 16 Bihar, Hav. K Palani from 81 Field regiment and Sep. Gurtej Singh from 3 Punjab. In addition, the President has announced one Kirti Chakra posthumously and three Shaurya Chakras, one of which is posthumous.
•The President has approved award of 455 gallantry and other defence decorations to the armed forces personnel and others on the eve of the 72nd Republic Day celebrations, the Defence Ministry said.
•They are one MVC, five Kirti Chakras, five VrC, seven Shaurya Chakras, 134 Sena Medal, one Nao Sena Medal, four Vayu Sena Medal (all gallantry), 30 Param Vishisht Seva Medal (PVSM), four Uttam Yudh Seva Medal (UYSM), 51 Ati Vishisht Seva Medal (AVSM), 11 Yudh Seva Medal (YSM), 46 Sena Medal (Devotion to Duty), including for two COVID-19 warriors, eight Nao Sena Medal (devotion to duty), 14 Vayu Sena Medal (devotion to duty) and 134 Vishisht Seva Medal (VSM), including 13 COVID-19 warriors.
•In the first combat fatalities in 45 years on the Line of Actual Control, 20 soldiers were killed after they were attacked by Chinese troops in the Galwan valley on the night of June 15.
•The incident occurred amid a “de-escalation” process in Galwan after a month-long stand-off between troops at several points along the LAC in Ladakh and Sikkim.
•The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has so far not revealed the number of casualties on its side. Col. Babu was tasked with establishing an observation post in face of the enemy and he successfully executed the task, organising and briefing his troops about the situation with a sound plan, the citation said.
Stiff resistance
•“While holding the position, his column faced stiff resistance from the adversary who attacked using lethal and sharp weapons along with heavy stone pelting from adjoining heights. Undaunted by the violent and aggressive action by overwhelming strength of enemy soldiers, the officer in true spirit of service before self, continued to resist the enemy’s attempt to pushback Indian troops,” it stated.
•Col. Babu led from the front with absolute command and control despite hostile conditions to deter the vicious enemy attack at his position, the citation read, adding: “In the skirmish that broke out and ensuing hand to hand combat with enemy soldiers, he valiantly resisted the enemy attack till his last breath, inspiring and motivating his troops to hold ground.”
•For conspicuous bravery in the face of enemy, exemplary leadership, astute professionalism and supreme sacrifice in the line of duty, Col. Babu was selected for the MVC posthumously.
War memorial
•The names of the 20 personnel have also been inscribed at the National War Memorial in the national capital.
•The Army said that while three soldiers including Col. Babu were killed in the clash, 17, who were critically injured at the location and exposed to sub-zero temperatures in the high-altitude terrain, died later.
