📰 India, China hold fifth round of military talks
Meeting amid stalled disengagement along points on LAC
•India and China held the fifth round of Corps Commanders-level talks at Moldo on the Chinese side on Sunday to take forward the stalled process of disengagement on the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The talks were still on at the time of going to print.
•The talks began around 11 a.m., a defence source said. The confirmation for the meeting came from the Chinese side late on Saturday evening.
•As with earlier rounds, the talks were led by Leh-based 14 Corps commander Lt. Gen. Harinder Singh and South Xinjiang military commander Maj. Gen. Lin Liu.
•The Corps Commanders of the two sides have held four rounds of talks so far on June 6, 22, 30 and July 14 to de-escalate from the build-up in Galwan Valley, Gogra-Hot Springs and the Finger area along the Pangong Tso (lake) in Ladakh sector along the LAC.
•However, there has been no update on the situation at the strategically important Depsang plains.
•India has demanded that status quo be restored along the unsettled boundary line. China had massed troops since April-May along the LAC and occupied positions in India’s perception of the LAC in Eastern Ladakh.
•The talks on July 14 went on for 15 hours but failed to restart the disengagement process, despite a consensus for full disengagement and de-escalation.
•On Thursday, the Ministry of External Affairs said that the disengagement process of troops had not yet been completed. China has, however, maintained that the process is complete. China has been reluctant to discuss Pangong Tso, it has been learnt. “There is some resistance,” a second source said.
NSA-led panel meets
•The high-powered China Study Group, headed by National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval also met on Thursday, and discussed the ongoing situation, a government official said.
•The first phase of disengagement undertaken in early July remains incomplete with disengagement completed only at Galwan Valley and Patrolling Point (PP) 15 in Gogra-Hot springs area. Only limited disengagement has been undertaken at PP 17A in Gogra-Hot Springs and it has barely begun at Pangong Tso.
•Chinese troops have only moved back from the base of Finger 4, the mountain spur, to Finger 5 but remain to occupy the ridge lines of Finger 4 while India’s claim extends till Finger 8, while it has always held till Finger 4.
•Sunday’s Corps Commanders meeting follows a third round, since the stand-off began, of a virtual conference of the ‘Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India China Border Affairs’ on July 24. With a return to status quo of pre-May positions nowhere in sight, the Army has been preparing for extended deployment and stocking up for the harsh winter in the high altitude region for the large number of troops deployed along the LAC.
Chushul BPM cancelled
•With ongoing tensions, the ceremonial Border Personnel Meeting (BPM), usually held at Chushul to mark the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Day on August 1, did not take place. The BPM was toned down and happened only in Eastern Command, the second source stated.
Handles with Chinese names, Mandarin content traced to earlier avatars in Urdu
•Many of the ‘Chinese’ accounts that mushroomed on social media this summer and spread false information about the border clash with India have been traced to Pakistan, in what is believed to be a coordinated disinformation campaign aimed at India.
•The India-China border tensions starting in May, and culminating in the June 15 clash in the Galwan Valley, sparked a first-of-its-kind information war on social media, where Indian and Chinese accounts on Twitter, Facebook and YouTube traded images and videos in an effort to both capture the narrative and the attention of the media.
•The disinformation flowed both ways. But what was unknown to consumers of the posts by ‘Chinese’ social media users is that many of the accounts that posed as China-based users were actually Pakistani accounts. Twitter is banned in China, although it can be accessed using virtual private networks.
•An analysis of some of the most active ‘Chinese accounts’ on the border clash on Twitter found that these accounts previously had different profile names and handle names. Some of these accounts even had user bios that were earlier in Urdu, before morphing overnight into Mandarin.
•One such account, ‘xiuying637’, was earlier run as ‘hinaarbi2’, before it began tweeting information related to the Chinese military and the border clash. The account has been suspended, but only belatedly.
•These accounts have used a loophole on Twitter that allows users to not only change their profile names, but their Twitter handles as well. Their changed avatars were detected because some of these accounts, which have tens of thousands of followers, were previously being tracked.
•One account, with a profile name in Chinese characters, Zeping, and handle ‘sawaxpx’, that tweeted on the border previously tweeted in Urdu. Its tweets are now unavailable. Another account, ‘Yasifxi’, had a Chinese name and tweeted in Chinese characters, posting information about the border clash, but was traced to Pakistan.
•These accounts have shared false information about casualties from the clash, unrelated images of injured soldiers, and videos of troops’ confrontations that were from previous border incidents. Tweeting in Mandarin and using Chinese names gave the posts a sense of credibility.
📰 A policy with many a right intention
The NEP has several innovative ideas and daring proposals, but also makes a few problematic assumptions
•Thirty-four years after the last National Policy on Education was introduced, in 1986, the National Education Policy, 2020 has been announced. It has been approved by the Union Cabinet, and will hopefully be approved by Parliament soon. It has several innovative ideas and daring proposals, but also makes a few problematic assumptions.
•A majority of the path-breaking proposals submitted by the Dr. K. Kasturirangan Committee, in the 2019 draft National Education Policy, seem to have been approved. Those proposals saw extensive debates and discussions in the country and generated a lot of feedback. Very few important proposals that figured in the draft have been ignored in the final policy. There are a couple of major new proposals in the 2020 policy which were not proposed in the draft or which have been marginally modified from the draft policy. While I welcome the policy as it promises a large set of transformative reforms of the entire education system, I refer to some proposals and issues here.
Bold moves
•It is heartening that there are statements in the policy such as “education is a public good” and “the public education system is the foundation of a vibrant democratic society”. I wish these statements forcefully guide the formulation of the policy in all aspects. The recognition of education as a public good has important implications for public policy in planning, providing, and financing education. It also has important implications for the state’s approach towards private education. In fact, benevolent private players and private philanthropists draw inspiration from the nature of education as a public good. It is public education that contributes to the building of nations, their growth — socially, economically, politically, culturally, and technologically — and the building of a humane society. There are many more statements in the policy that may be welcomed. For instance, the policy promotes a holistic education as well as “each student’s holistic development in both academic and non-academic spheres”, emphasises extra-curricular activities, emphasises research, speaks of “substantial investment in a strong, vibrant public education system”, and so on.
•The major recommendations of the Committee that have been approved include a 5+3+3+4 system in school education that incorporates early childhood care and education; universal education that includes the secondary level; adoption of school complexes; breakfast in the school meal programme; and introduction of vocational education at the upper primary level. A series of reforms have been proposed in higher education too. These include a multidisciplinary system offering choices to students from among a variety of subjects from different disciplines; integrated (undergraduate, postgraduate and research levels) education; a four-year undergraduate programme; and overhauling of the governance structure in higher education. There will be just one regulatory body for the entire sector in the Higher Education Commission of India. The policy also places emphasis on the liberal arts, humanities, and Indian heritage and languages; facilitates selective entry of high-quality foreign universities; aims to increase public investment in education to 6% of the GDP; promises to provide higher education free to about 50% of the students (with scholarships and fee waivers); and aims to increase the gross enrolment ratio in higher education to 50% by 2035. Some of these proposals were suggested by earlier committees such as the Yashpal Committee and C.N.R. Rao Committee, and several experts. As they have immense scope in revitalising the system, we may applaud many of these moves.
•Some policy decisions are bold. For instance, the policy says, “Wherever possible, the medium of instruction until at least Grade 5... will be the home language/mother tongue/local language/regional language.” It also says the three-language formula will be implemented. The first proposal, which should apply to all schools including private schools, will reduce elitism and dualism in schools to a great extent, though one might expect a bolder move like a common school system, which would be a greater equaliser. The three-language formula will promote national integration. Reforms like revamping the University Grants Commission and abolishing the affiliating system were only dreamt of earlier by many experts. Of course, implementation of these audacious reforms is still a major challenge.
Missing in the final policy
•What are the proposals or statements that were emphatically made in the draft but are missing in the policy? One important statement that was repeatedly made in the draft policy, that all commercially oriented private institutions will be closed, is missing in the final policy — though the 2020 policy promises closure of substandard teacher education institutions only. Now the policy simply states, “The matter of commercialization of education has been dealt with by the Policy through multiple relevant fronts, including: the ‘light but tight’ regulatory approach that mandates full public self-disclosure of finances”, though almost every policymaker and administrator in education recognises that there is a serious problem with the private education sector in India. Second, the draft policy promised doubling public expenditure on education to 20% of the total government expenditure, from 10%. The 2020 policy simply reaffirms the commitment to allocation of 6% of GDP.
•A few other recommendations of the Committee did not find a place in the final policy. They include setting up of a National Education Commission at the national level and a similar one at the State level. There is no mention of State School Education Regulatory Authorities in the 2020 policy. At the State level, the Department of School Education is regarded as the apex body. There is also no promise of ‘full’ recruitment of teachers at all levels, though the policy promises robust recruitment mechanisms to be put in place.
•Among the few new proposals, the establishment of a model Multi-Disciplinary Education and Research University in every district is one. In school education, a National Assessment Centre has been promised to make assessment and evaluation more holistic. The policy, unlike the draft, rightly recognises the need to strengthen the Central Advisory Board of Education.
•Apart from a few controversial proposals, a few untenable basic beliefs and assumptions of the Committee prevail. The Committee seems to have great faith in “light but tight” regulation, confidence in the private sector in making honest self-disclosures of all aspects of their operations, and faith in the adequacy of common norms for public and private institutions. It also seems to have faith in the government’s ability to implement many reforms — for example, in doing away with the affiliating system and making all colleges autonomous degree-awarding colleges of high quality, ensuring institutional and faculty autonomy, and in the autonomous functioning of institutions of governance with no external interference. Policymakers and administrators have been struggling unsuccessfully with some of these issues for years. A major challenge policymakers will continue to face is how to differentiate the benevolent philanthropic private sector from undesirable but powerful market forces in the education sector and regulate the entry and growth of the latter.
📰 Rebuild India’s confidence, revive the economy
The path to a sustained recovery is to improve sentiments in society, using economic tools
•These are extraordinarily difficult times for our nation and the world. People are gripped with the fear of disease and death from COVID-19. This fear is ubiquitous and transcends geography, religion and class. The inability of nations to control the spread of the novel coronavirus and the lack of a confirmed cure for the disease have exacerbated people’s concerns. Such a heightened sense of anxiety among people can cause tremendous upheavals in the functioning of societies. Consequently, disruption of the normal social order will inevitably impact livelihoods and the larger economy.
•The economic impact of COVID-19 has been much discussed. There is unanimity among economists that the global economy will experience one of its worst years in history. India is no exception and cannot buck the trend. While estimates vary, it is clear that, for the first time in many decades, India’s economy will contract significantly.
An event with deep impact
•Economic contraction is not merely a GDP number for economists to analyse and debate. It means a reversal of many years of progress. A significant number among the weaker sections of our society may slip back into poverty, a rare occurrence for a developing nation. Many enterprises may shut down. An entire generation may be lost due to severe unemployment. A contracting economy can adversely impact our ability to feed and educate our children owing to a shortage of financial resources. The deleterious impact of an economic contraction is long and deep, especially on the poor.
•It is thus imperative to act with utmost urgency to nurse the economy back to good health. The slowdown in economic activity is both a function of external factors such as the lockdown and behavioural changes of people and enterprises, driven by fear. The foundation for reviving our economy is to inject confidence back in the entire ecosystem. People must feel confident about their lives and livelihoods. Entrepreneurs must feel confident of reopening and making investments. Bankers must feel confident about providing capital. Multilateral organisations must feel confident enough to provide funding to India. Sovereign ratings agencies must feel confident about India’s ability to fulfil its financial obligations and restore economic growth.
On NREGA and cash support
•There is extreme duress among India’s poor. At a time when agriculture activity has been robust, data show that just in the month of June, 62 million people demanded work under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) programme at minimum wages. This is thrice the usual number and 10 times more than the total number employed by the entire listed corporate sector. It is evident that most of them are displaced non-agricultural workers, struggling to make ends meet. Such is the scale and enormity of despair in our labour force. Fortuitously, the MGNREGA programme has proved to be a bedrock of support in such times but it is not enough.
•A meaningful cash transfer can restore confidence in these families. Money in the hands of people can provide an immediate sense of security and confidence, which is the cornerstone to restoring economic normalcy. India is perhaps the only large democracy that has not provided direct cash assistance of a significant amount during the COVID-19 crisis. There seems to be a misplaced sense of apprehension that providing large cash assistance may deter people from returning to the workforce when needed and starve industry of labour. Such fears are stale and unfounded. In the United States, as per reports, nearly three-quarters of unemployed workers received higher pay and benefits under their government’s COVID-19 assistance than from their employers. But this has not prevented American industry from reopening. While it is inordinately late, it is still prudent to provide a significant sum as direct cash assistance to the poor which can inject confidence in them to weather this COVID-19 storm.
Look at the financial system
•There is also a dire need to restore confidence in the financial system which acts as the vital lubricant for the economy. COVID-19 assistance measures undertaken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government such as interest rate reductions, credit guarantee and liquidity enhancement schemes are welcome steps, but they have largely failed since banks are not confident of lending. Reviving the health of the banking sector is not merely about capital infusion or disinvestment of public sector banks. Allowing institutions such as the RBI, public sector banks, bankruptcy boards, securities and insurance regulators to function freely and professionally is the foundational step to restoring confidence in the financial system. It is critical to allow processes such as the insolvency process to function smoothly without intervention. If there is confidence among people to spend and among bankers to lend, then the private sector will spontaneously derive the confidence to reopen and invest. When firms feel confident of availability of capital and consumers, they do not need much else to kick-start production and investment. Corporate tax cuts, such as the one announced last year, are misguided luxuries that will neither boost private investment nor are fiscally affordable. Knee-jerk reaction such as protection of Indian industry through trade restrictions cannot catalyse economic activity immediately but instead, is a dangerous reversal of established industrial policy that has generated enormous economic gains over the last three decades.
•A large direct cash assistance to people, improving capital adequacy of banks and providing credit guarantee schemes for corporates require significant financial resources. Government finances are already stretched with a major shortfall in revenues. New avenues for tax revenues are not feasible in the short term. Higher borrowing by the government is inevitable. India cannot afford to be too fiscally restrained in these distressing times.
Government needs to borrow
•India must make full use of loan programmes of international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Our long track record as an impeccable borrower with no default, timely repayments and full transparency make us an ideal borrower for these institutions. However, these will not suffice, and the government needs to borrow more.
•Some have opined that India should hark back to the old ways of deficit monetisation by the RBI, also known as printing money. This is understandable given the current unforeseen circumstances. But we must be cognisant of the unhealthy impulses that seemingly free money creates for governments. Deficit monetisation imposes high intangible and institutional costs, as we have experienced in the past. It is perhaps prudent to adopt deficit monetisation as the last resort when all other options are exhausted.
•India is confronted with a dangerous trinity of military, health and economic threats. Diverting people’s attention from these threats through choreographed events and headlines will not make them disappear. India entered the COVID-19 crisis in a precarious position, with slowing growth, rising unemployment and a choked financial system. The epidemic has manifestly made it more painful.
Setting things right
•It is important to enlarge one’s diagnosis of India’s economic woes from mere GDP numbers to the underlying sentiments of fear, uncertainty and insecurity prevalent in people, firms and institutions. Restoring confidence in people through direct cash assistance and other welfare programmes can help them live their lives and spend. Restoring confidence among bankers through autonomy of institutions and processes will help them lend. Restoring confidence among businesses with greater access to capital will help them invest and create jobs. Restoring confidence among international organisations by re-establishing the credibility of our institutions will help get funding assistance and objective sovereign ratings.
•Without being lured into complacency over illusionary recovery of headline numbers, the path to India’s sustained economic revival is through the philosophical pursuits of improving confidence and sentiments of all in our society, using the economic tools of fiscal and monetary policies.
