📰 India eyes record food production
Target of 298.3 million tonnes of foodgrain set after normal monsoon forecast
•On the back of a normal monsoon forecast, the Agriculture Ministry is targeting a record foodgrain production of 298.3 million tonnes for 2020-21, higher than the 291.95 million tonnes estimated for 2019-20.
•According to a presentation made by Agriculture Commissioner Suresh Malhotra at a National Conference on Agriculture-Kharif 2020 Campaign on Thursday, both rice and wheat production targets are minimally higher than the previous year. However, the focus is on driving the growth in pulses, coarse cereals and oilseeds.
•Due to the travel restrictions imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Agriculture Ministry’s annual meeting to review the ongoing rabi or winter season harvest and layout prospects for the coming kharif or summer cropping season is being held via video conferencing. Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar also interacted with State agriculture departments, briefing them on the measures taken to ensure a smooth and safe rabi harvest in the midst of the lockdown.
Normal rainfall
•On Wednesday, the India Meteorological Department issued its first forecast for the monsoon, predicting normal rainfall, with a chance of above normal rain in August and September.
•The main kharif season crop is rice, and the Agriculture Ministry is targeting a harvest of 102.6 million tonnes, slightly higher than the last kharif season harvest of 101.95 million tonnes. However, it has lowered its rice production target for the next rabi season to 14.9 million tonnes. This means that the total rice production target for 2020-21 is 117.5 million tonnes, barely higher than the previous year's target of 117.47 million tonnes.
•Wheat production is also expected to remain steady, with a 2020-21 target of 106.5 million tonnes, in comparison to the previous year’s estimate of 106.21 million tonnes.
•The Agriculture Ministry hopes to ramp up production of coarse cereals this year, but admits that the challenge is how to create demand for nutricereals or millets. It is targeting a harvest of 48.7 million tonnes in comparison to the previous season’s 45.24 million tonnes.
•With regard to pulses, the target is 25.3 million tonnes compared to the previous season's estimates of 23 million tonnes, with the entire increase projected to come from the kharif season.
Oilseeds major priority
•Oilseeds are a major priority, especially due to the disruption in edible oil imports caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The targeted harvest is 36.64 million tonnes, in comparison to the last season's estimates of 34.19 million tonnes. One challenge could be a shortfall in supply of soyabean seeds to the tune of 3.2 lakh quintals, due to unseasonal rains at the time of harvesting the seed crop.
•The Ministry has also created an action plan for oil palm plantation, given the disruptions in imports. It hopes to cover 31,500 hectares with about 45 lakh seedlings this year, with the bulk of the plantation in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
India must do all it can to help the migrant workers stranded in West Asia
•Around eight million people in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries constitute a unique cohort among Indian diaspora communities around the world. Around 50% of them are unskilled and another 30% are semi-skilled. Only a small minority of 20% of them are skilled and lucratively employed, but all these migrant workers together form the backbone of India’s ties with the region. Their contribution of nearly 40% of the total foreign exchange remittances to India is critical to its economy. Their labour is vital for the GCC economy. With no option of assimilation into their host countries, their link to the home country remains intact, unlike Indian immigrants to the West. The vast majority of them who are on subsistence wages are facing a tough situation in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. From the little information available, it appears that Indians are badly hit by the disease. Living and working conditions make it extremely difficult for them to practise social distancing or get treatment if infected. Many of them suffer from preexisting medical conditions and are used to procuring medicines from India, which is now impossible. Vast sectors of the economy are shut, rendering many of them jobless. Thousands are without documentation. Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha being important transits for international travel, thousands of Indian travellers are also stuck in the region.
•India cannot abandon them to their helpless fate. It must work closely with governments of the region to bring them succour. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has nurtured good relations with all rulers of the region but the ongoing crisis is testing the endurance of India’s ties with some of the GCC countries. The UAE government has said it might revise current partnerships concerning labour relations with nations refusing to cooperate with measures to repatriate private sector expatriates who wish to return home. The country’s ambassador to India Ahmed Al Banna has promised only those who are tested negative for the virus would be repatriated. Some of these migrants want to be evacuated, while many might want to remain where they are. Pinarayi Vijayan, the Chief Minister of Kerala which is home to more than two million Indian immigrants in the Gulf, has said the State is prepared to receive returnees and provide them care. Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Punjab have a significant number of people in the Gulf. The Centre must take the initiative to bring together State governments, and work out arrangements with national governments in the region in a manner acceptable to all. It will certainly take some effort to arrive at what is doable and desirable at this juncture, but there is no excuse for not doing that. That is the least India can do for these people whose search for a livelihood has done the country so much good.
📰 A blueprint to revive the economy
A carefully crafted economic proposal for consideration of the Indian government to help our fellow citizens
•“We have no food, no home, no income. My children are starving,” cried Prachi to a TV anchor on April 14. Prachi, a migrant worker from Bihar, is one of the roughly 400 million workers in India who are dependent on daily wages for their survival. She has lost her source of livelihood because we are under a lockdown and economic activity has stopped. A lockdown is necessary to prevent the spread of COVID-19. But we need not make a choice between saving lives and protecting livelihoods. We can achieve both through a ‘smart’ lockdown and careful economic management.
•The phrase ‘Greater Depression’, which has entered the vocabulary of economists, highlights the gravity of the humanitarian and economic crisis confronting us today. Every sector of the economy in every nation has come to a screeching halt. We extend our sympathies and wishes to all the leaders of the world, including our Prime Minister, for the enormous responsibility of steering their respective nations through this pandemic. In the spirit of non-partisanship, here is a carefully crafted economic proposal for consideration of the Indian government to help our fellow citizens.
Demand, supply challenges
•First, it is important to diagnose the scale of the economic crisis accurately. Prachi has lost her job because her employer has been forced to stop commercial activity. It is important for the government to feed Prachi and help her employer to restart activities so that he can re-employ her soon. The economic crisis needs a demand side and a supply side response. It is morally imperative that we immediately address the miseries of the poor and vulnerable by providing money as well as food. The bottom half of all households (13 crore out of 26 crore families) must be given Rs. 5,000 per family in their bank account within a week. The list of households and the bank details (largely Aadhaar-seeded) are available in the government’s various schemes such as PMJAY and MGNREGA. Besides, the States have their ‘below poverty line’ lists. This will cost a maximum of Rs. 65,000 crore. Further, depending on the need, for the month of May, these families can be given Rs. 3,000 each. This will cost an additional Rs. 39,000 crore.
•More than cash, scholars like Jean Dreze have observed that it is food that people need most urgently. India has far in excess of the buffer stock requirement. The Central government has already announced distribution of free food, but reports suggest that there is either lack of food supplies at the local ration shop or identity requirements of ration cards are proving to be a roadblock. The government must universalise food distribution immediately, to remove identity requirements, and work with State governments to rush supplies to every ration shop so that every family gets free grain.
•Next, the April 15 guidelines allow MGNREGA work, which was stopped due to the lockdown, to be restarted while observing social distancing norms. District collectors should be given the freedom to start and expand works under MGNREGA. If work cannot be given for some reason, 10 days’ wages every month should be paid to the registered MGNREGA workers in the panchayat/block until the scheme is resumed. This will ensure some livelihood support. Economists Amartya Sen, Raghuram Rajan and Abhijit Banerjee have also called for urgent implementation of these measures.
•The next step is to help Prachi’s employer to resume commercial activities, which can be done by re-opening the economy gradually. The key to reopening is our ability to identify sensitive COVID-19 hotspot areas and containment zones. The Central and State governments must work in tandem to identify hotspots, preferably at the level of the block/mandal and not just at the district level. This can be done with the help of public health experts and epidemiologists through strategic testing.
Planning ahead
•Starting May 4, the new guidelines must be expanded to permit all economic activity (with a few exceptions) in non-hotspot areas. Economic activity requires labour and capital, which are significantly diminished due to the lockdown. Continuous testing and monitoring will be needed as new areas may turn into hotspots and hotspots may become non-hotspots.
•Let small shops, service establishments and the self-employed start commercial activity in their areas. Three-quarters of the 80 million enterprises are establishments that operate in local areas. As long as they observe the usual precautions, they will not add to the risks. This will boost local economic activity.
•The new guidelines permit agricultural activity during the rabi harvest season. This is a step in the right direction. However, the constraint for all these commercial and agricultural activities will be the availability of labour for which re-opening of travel and transport is crucial. But it is also the riskiest. Mass rapid transit as well as private transport must be gradually opened in non-hotspot areas. It is necessary to open up rail and bus transport with adequate precautions such as temperature checks and social distancing norms inside buses and trains. One strategy could be to reduce the number of passengers in each bus and train by increasing the frequency of the vehicles or by running them at half-capacity. There will be trade-offs, but each local transport authority can choose the right policy and tweak it from time to time.
Funding the revival
•The other essential ingredient for resumption of economic activity is access to capital, especially working capital. A majority of the small and medium enterprises (SMEs) would have run out of cash and lost significant revenues. No bank is likely to lend to them. The government must step in to provide credit guarantees that can incentivise banks to SMEs. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has already instructed banks to issue a moratorium on loan obligations for three months. If needed, this can be extended by another three months.
•For the formal sector, we can take a leaf out of the U.S.’s Paycheque Protection Program. The idea is for the government to help formal sector businesses to keep workers on their payroll without resorting to retrenchment or lay-offs. The 2017-18 Economic Survey estimated, using the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) data set, that there are 40 million employees earning less than Rs. 15,000 per month who are employed in firms registered under the Goods and Services Tax (GST). It is likely that they are vulnerable to retrenchment. The government could ‘protect their pay cheques’ by funding their employers to pay them for one or two months. This can be implemented using data from the EPFO and GST databases.
•The RBI, and through it the banks, should be encouraged to make capital available liberally to sectors such as tourism and manufacturing, which need specific interventions. External trade will continue to be tepid. India must do whatever it takes through export incentives and strategic use of foreign exchange reserves to capitalise on the export opportunity arising out of this crisis and stimulate exports dramatically over the next few years. Exports can be the key to jobs for hundreds of millions of skilled and unskilled workers, as it was during the boom years 2004-2010.
•Fiscal stimulus measures on the demand and supply side must be supplemented by monetary stimulus from the RBI with re-designed measures such as moratorium, loan forgiveness, regulatory forbearance, revised NPA regulations and easing the cycle of credit flow.
Money versus myth
•Do we have the money to indulge in such a revival and recovery package? It is our estimate that the total fiscal package will cost Rs. 5-6 lakh crore. That amount is available. The Centre and the States have a total expenditure budget of over Rs. 70 lakh crore for 2020-21. The Centre alone has budgeted to spend Rs. 4 lakh crore on capital expenditure this fiscal year. In a crisis, much of the capital expenditure may not be possible at all, and even if it is, must be deferred to the next fiscal year. Besides, more savings can be identified by axing wasteful expenditure. Further, the Centre can borrow money during times like this without crowding out private investment or pushing up interest rates. As a final resort, the government can monetise part of additional deficit, otherwise known as ‘printing money’.
•A microorganism has brought humankind to its knees. As health scientists have said, we must learn to live with the virus. We need to act now to ensure that Prachi and millions like her can live through this and experience the new normal.
📰 Virtual reality
Telemedicine can help reach patients where access to medical care is difficult
•The world has very few devices left to fight COVID-19 with, but technology remains one of them. Whether it is the employ of state-of-the-art technology in the discovery of cures or vaccines, or traditional technology services to enhance health care and consultations, or even tools that keep people at home occupied/productive, it is clear that technology will serve humanity at one of its darkest moments. The pandemic has contributed, in no small measure, to the understanding of the myriad ways in which available technologies have not been put to better use, and presented people with multiple opportunities to harness these devices, techniques and methods to get on with life in the time of lockdown. Among the primary uses is telemedicine, rendered inexorable now, by the temporary paralysis brought on by a freeze on movement.
•The Centre’s recent guidelines allowing for widespread use of telemedicine services came as a shot in the arm for telehealth crusaders in the country, among them the Telemedicine Society of India that has long been battling to use the technology in its complete arc to reach remote areas in India. This move finds consonance with the rest of the world where several nations, also deeply impacted by the pandemic, have deployed telemedicine to reach people who have been unable to come to hospital, to reduce footfalls in hospitals, and to even provide medical and mental health counselling to countless people. It was way back in 2000 that telemedicine was first employed in India, but the progress has been excruciatingly slow, until the pandemic. However, it does seem as if the medical community was only held back by the lack of legislation to enable tele consultations. For no sooner was the policy announced, than hospitals and clinicians hurried to jump onto the bandwagon, advertising contact information for patients. The advantages are peculiar in the current context, when putting distance between people is paramount, as tele consultations are not barred even when health care professionals and patients may have to be quarantined. The advancement of telecommunication capabilities over the years has made the transmission of images and sound files (heart and lung sounds, coughs) faster and simpler. Pilot telemedicine experiments in ophthalmology and psychiatry have proven to be of immense benefit to the communities. Telemedicine’s time is here, finally. While unleashing the full potential of telemedicine to help people, experts and government agencies must be mindful of the possible inadequacies of the medium, and securing sensitive medical information; such cognisance should guide the use of the technology.
