📰 Analysis| How pandemics have changed the world
Pandemics have triggered the collapse of empires, weakened pre-eminent powers and institutions, created social upheaval and brought down wars
•Pandemics have had great influence in shaping human society and politics throughout history. From the Justinian Plague of sixth century to the Spanish flu of last century, pandemics have triggered the collapse of empires, weakened pre-eminent powers and institutions, created social upheaval and brought down wars. Here’s a look at some of the deadliest pandemics and how they influenced the course of human history.
Justinian Plague
•One of the deadliest pandemics in recorded history broke out in the sixth century in Egypt and spread fast to Constantinople, which was the capital of the Eastern Roman (Byzantine) Empire. The plague was named after the then Byzantine Emperor Justinian. The outbreak, which spread from Constantinople to both the West and East, had killed up to 25 to 100 million people. The plague hit Constantinople when the Byzantine Empire was at the pinnacle of its power under Justinian’s reign. The Empire had conquered much of the historically Roman Mediterranean coast, including Italy, Rome and North Africa.
•The plague would come back in different waves, finally disappearing in AD 750, after weakening the empire substantially. As the Byzantine Army failed to recruit new soldiers and ensure military supplies to battlegrounds in the wake of the spread of the illness, their provinces came under attack. The plague had also hit Constantinople hard economically, substantially weakening its war machine. By the time plague disappeared, the Empire had lost territories in Europe to the Germanic-speaking Franks and Egypt and Syria to the Arabs.
Black Death
•The Black Death, or pestilence, that hit Europe and Asia in the14th century was the deadliest pandemic recorded in human history. It killed some 75 to 200 million people, according to various estimates. In early 1340s, the plague struck China, India, Syria and Egypt. It arrived in Europe in 1347, where up to 50% of the population died of the disease. The outbreak also had lasting economic and social consequences.
•In the words of Stanford historian Walter Scheidel, pandemics are one of the “four horsemen” that have flattened inequality. The other three are wars, revolutions and state failures. In his book, The Great Leveller”, Mr. Scheidel writes how the Black Death led to improved wages for serfs and agricultural labourers. “Land became more abundant relative to labour [after the death of millions of working people]. Land rents and interest rates dropped... Landowners stood to lose, and workers could hope to gain,” he writes. In parts of Europe, wages tripled as labour demand rose. And once the economy started improving, the landowning class pressured authorities to check rising labour costs. In England, the Crown passed legislation in this regard the tensions created by which would eventually lead to the Peasant Revolt of 1381. The pandemic also led to largescale Jewish persecution in Europe. Jews, blamed for spreading the illness, were burned alive in many parts of the continent.
•The most significant impact of the Black Death was perhaps the weakening of the Catholic Church. As Frank M. Snowden, a Yale professor and author of Epidemics and Society: From the Black Death to the Present, observed, the outbreak challenged man’s relationship to God. “How could it be that an event of this kind could occur with a wise, all-knowing and omniscient divinity?” he said in a recent interview. The Church was as helpless as any other institutions as the plague spread like wildfire across the continent, which shook the people’s faith in Church and the clergy. While Church would continue to remain as a powerful institution, it would never regain the power and influence it had enjoyed before the outbreak of the plague. The Protestant Reformation in the 16th century would further weaken the Church.
Spanish Flu
•Spanish Flu, which broke out during the last phase of First World War, was the deadliest pandemic of the last century that killed up to 50 million people. The flu was first recorded in Europe and then spread fast to America and Asia. India, one of the worst-hit by the pandemic, lost between 17 and 18 million people, roughly 6% of its population.
•One of the major impacts of the outbreak was on the result of the war. Though the flu hit both sides, the Germans and Austrians were affected so badly that the outbreak derailed their offensives. German General Erich Ludendorff in his memoir, My War Memories, 1914-18, wrote that the flu was one of the reasons for Germany’s defeat. Germany launched its Spring Offensive on the western front in March 1918. By June and July, the disease had weakened the German units. “Our Army had suffered. Influenza was rampant...It often left a great a greater weakness in its wake than the doctors realised,” he wrote. The Armistice was signed on November 11, 1918 that ended the War. But the flu would continue to ravage parts of the world for many more months.
COVID-19
•It’s too early to say how the COVID-19 outbreak that has already infected about 2 million and killed over 1,26,000 people would change the world. But the outbreak has seen countries, both democratic and dictatorial, imposing drastic restrictions on people’s movements. The western world, the centre of the post-World War order, lies exposed to the attack of the virus. Unemployment rate in the U.S. has shot up to the levels not seen since the end of Second World War. Governments across the world, including the U.S. administration, are beefing up spending to stimulate an economy that shows signs of depression. Radical changes, good or bad, are already unfolding.
Exemptions granted to farming and related activities during the lockdown must be followed in practice
•Drafting orders without caring for implementation seems to be the nature of governance during the period of lockdown. An order dated March 28 said all agricultural, horticultural activities and those relating to harvesting, transportation, procurement, mandis, farming operations and the like are exempted from the lockdown. The order was made so that “harvesting would continue uninterrupted.” The exempted categories included “agencies engaged in procurement of agriculture products, including MSP operations; mandis; farmers and farm workers in the field; custom hiring centres related to farm machinery; manufacturing and packaging units of fertilizers, pesticides and seeds; and intra- and inter-state movement of harvesting and sowing-related machines.”
•The order went on to say that “this decision has been taken with a view to facilitate unhindered activities related to agriculture and farming so as to ensure essential supplies and that farmers and common people do not face any difficulty.”
•In a press release on March 27, the All India Kisan Sangharsh Coordinating Committee (AIKSCC), in a representation to the government, had asked the police not to stop peasants and said “there should be no harassment and violence against peasants, farmers, vendors and transporters.” The committee demanded that all harvested crops, milk, poultry, meat and eggs should be procured and that regulated markets should operate at requisite strength, failing which, the panel feared, village-level procurement and supply “will rot and ruin the producer farmers.”
Harvesting winter crops
•Similarly, on April 1, the AIKSCC, in its letter to the Chief Minister of Punjab, warned that “these are the peak days of harvesting winter crops, wheat, barley, pulses and seeds; but all the farmers/workers are shut behind the doors. Sir, who will harvest the crops? What will be the fate of vegetables/fruit growers particularly the high value perishable crops, these can hardly be stored. With no means to transport, god knows what will be their fate. Imagine the fate of milk producers and of poultry. The unfortunate peasants are forced to spill milk in the canals. The poultry farmers don’t know what to do with their products. The landless labourers and their families have absolutely no work. Who will provide them food on their plate?”
•In Madhya Pradesh, the Narmada Bachao Andolan (NBA) wrote to the Chief Secretary that despite the lifting of the lockdown, “all mandis at district level are closed,” and complained that when farmers sent tarbooz (water melons), oranges and grapes to the mandis, the gates were closed and they had to return on foot. Hence, the traders were refusing to come to the fields to collect their produce. The NBA found it ironic that migrant labourers were facing starvation while agricultural and horticultural produce was rotting in the fields.
•The All India Kisan Mazdoor Sabha (AIKMS), in its letter dated April 4, to the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister, complained that “farmers have suffered losses in their mustard crop which could not be harvested in time and the local police have stopped the peasants from reaching their fields and harvesting and transporting the crop.” It warned that “we are looking at a very severe crisis in the coming days if this attitude continues. It will lead to a major crisis in food availability and may result in large numbers of hunger deaths.” The panel pointed out that five lakh migrant labourers from Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh work in Punjab. However, many of them ran away due to the police.
•In Odisha, the panel pointed out that MGNREGA has completely stopped, forcing lakhs of rural workers into distress. “Everything can wait” it warned, “but not farming as a season lost means a year is lost.”
Assaults on forest dwellers
•Equally ominous are the assaults on tribals and non-tribal forest dwellers by the police and officials in all the tribal areas of the country. Forest produce is by nature inherently seasonal. Officials have interfered with the collection of non-timber forest produce, as allowed by the Forest Rights Act, causing hunger and distress to millions of tribals.
•Overzealous policemen and officials have lathi-charged farm workers and interfered with the movement of agricultural produce to the mandis. If harvesting is interrupted, if transportation of produce is halted on account of vehicles with passes not being available, if farmers and farm workers are lathi-charged on their way to work and if the mandis do not operate at full strength, there could be an unprecedented food crisis.
•The judiciary must carefully review its approach of meekly following the executive while the latter makes blunder after blunder. The lockdown was introduced irrationally without ensuring the continuation of provisions statutorily mandated under the National Food Security Act, 2013. Consequently, the anganwadis were closed in panic and supplementary nutrition for children below 6 years and for pregnant women, lactating mothers and adolescent girls came to an immediate stop. Chaos continued until the government issued an order, dated March 30, acknowledging “that in many States/UTs [Union Territories], the anganwadi centres are closed”. Hurriedly, patchwork activities began, which resulted in provision of take-home rations, instead of hot, cooked meals.
•Tens of thousands of those below the poverty line suffered terribly. Similarly, the mid-day meal, which reaches millions of school-going students, was abruptly discontinued. The provision of Rs. 6,000 to every pregnant woman and lactating mother, mandated under the Maternity Benefit Act, also virtually came to an end. Imperial in its announcement and in its execution, the lockdown caused untold pain to the poor.
A hastily imposed lockdown
•This is not to say that some form of a lockdown was unnecessary; however, the harshness and arbitrariness and lack of thought and preparation in its execution was certainly avoidable. It is typical of governments run dictatorially and with lack of transparency that when mistakes are made, they turn out to be gigantic and irreversible. Further, to stifle criticism, we are now told by no less than the Solicitor General that it is not in public interest to highlight the human suffering and that the government’s point of view should be accepted without demur because the crisis demands that everyone falls in line. What the learned law officer fails to understand is that Indians may be poor, and sometimes gullible, but they are not sheep to always fall in line with a military-like command. They have reserves of democratic resistance that will in the coming months perhaps surprise this government.
•Starvation deaths on account of hunger and merciless police beatings have been reported from across the country. The judiciary must now shift track. For some time, the courts have deferred to the government in view of the unprecedented crisis. But now, with the crisis spreading to agriculture, the judiciary must abandon this hands-off approach.
📰 Disastrous decision
WHO must not be victimised for Trump’sown failures in battling the virus
•At a time when the World Health Organization has been seeking at least $675 million additional funding for critical response efforts in countries most in need during the pandemic, U.S. President Trump has done the unthinkable — halting funding to WHO while a review is conducted to assess its “role in severely mismanaging and covering up the spread of coronavirus” and for “failing to adequately obtain, vet, and share information in a timely and transparent fashion”. The decision comes a week after he first threatened to put funding on hold for the global health body. At over $500 million, the U.S. is WHO’s biggest contributor; America is also the worst affected country — over 0.6 million cases and nearly 26,000 deaths. But halting funding at a crucial time will not only impact the functioning of the global body but also hurt humanity. Many low and middle-income countries that look up to WHO for guidance and advice, and even for essentials such as testing kits and masks, will be badly hit for no fault of theirs. With a little over two million cases and over 1,27,000 deaths globally, the pandemic has been unprecedented in scale. When solidarity and unmitigated support from every member-state is necessary to win the war against the virus, withholding funding will not be in the best interest of any country, the U.S. included. Failures due to oversight or other reasons, by WHO or member-states can always be looked into but not in the midst of a pandemic.
•Contrary to what Mr. Trump claims, WHO cannot independently investigate but can only rely on individual member-states to share information. There has not been one instance when it has been found “covering up” the epidemic in China. Rather, it has been continuously urging countries to aggressively test people exhibiting symptoms and trace, quarantine and test contacts to contain the spread. It repeatedly spoke of the window of opportunity, and once warned that it is narrowing. Historically, WHO has been against travel and trade restrictions against countries experiencing outbreaks, and its position was no different when, in January, it declared COVID-19 a public health emergency of international concern. But it did support China’s large-scale mitigation measures to contain the virus spread. Faulting WHO for imaginary failings cannot help Mr. Trump wash his hands of many administrative failures in containing the epidemic. He has been blaming everyone else for his shortcomings in dealing with COVID-19. But moving beyond blaming and actually withholding WHO funding can have disastrous outcomes. If indeed he fervently believes that the U.S. has been misled, it is China that he must hold responsible for a delayed alert. Previously, he praised both China and WHO. Obviously, the change in line is linked to a desperate bid to hide his own failures.
📰 Cease the distractions, seize the moment
The crisis provides several opportunities for real parliamentary change; a reduction in the pay of MPs is only symbolic
•The government has issued two ordinances, Parliament has modified its rules to reduce the salary and allowances of Members of Parliament and Ministers, and the Union Cabinet has decided to cancel the Members of Parliament Local Area Development Scheme (MPLADS) for two years. These measures are purportedly to save costs as the nation tackles the COVID-19 pandemic.
Cosmetic cuts
•The cuts in salaries and allowances are a distraction from the real issue: are our parliamentarians performing their constitutional roles during the crisis? Let us quickly consider the impact of the cuts. The 30% cut in the Rs. 1 lakh per month salary and the Rs. 27,000 cut in office and constituency allowances amount to savings of less than Rs. 5 crore per month. The cut in sumptuary allowances for Ministers results in a total savings of Rs. 25,000 per month; yes, you read that right. These amounts are immaterial for the Central government with an average monthly budget of Rs. 2.5-lakh crore. Interestingly, the United Kingdom has increased the allowance for Members of Parliament by £10,000 to help them manage extra costs of working from home.
•During the crisis, Members of Parliament should be deliberating on the actions and policies to be taken to manage the epidemic, and the costs and consequences of various alternatives. They should also be trying to figure out ways to have committee meetings and even the meetings of the full House through alternate mechanisms such as video-conferencing. For example, while the U.K. has also implemented a lockdown, its Parliament is connecting all Members through video-conferencing (by April 15) so that the session can resume virtually on April 21 after the Easter break. The British Parliament has created a page on its website tracking all government orders related to the pandemic, and its Secondary Legislation Scrutiny Committee is scrutinising the orders. Other Parliaments are also working to fulfil their role as oversight bodies. The New Zealand Parliament has formed an Epidemic Response Committee that will examine the government’s management of the epidemic. This committee and other select committees are meeting through video-conference.
Parliament absent
•The Indian Parliament adjourned on March 23, the day after the janata curfew, in view of the pandemic. In the previous week, even as the crisis was unfolding, Parliament was debating the establishment of a Sanskrit University and an Ayurveda institute, and that of regulatory boards for aircraft, Indian Systems of Medicine and Homoeopathy. The Finance Bill was passed without any discussion on the last day. There was no discussion on the possible implications of the coronavirus epidemic and policy measures to tackle it — this was the week when the Prime Minister made the first televised speech to the nation on the issue. Remarkably, there was no recognition of the pressures on the Budget when it was passed that week.
•Since then, Parliament has not held committee meetings. There have been no official statements regarding the possibility of holding these through video-conference. Thus, the government’s actions are going unchecked. In brief, Parliament has abdicated its role as the elected body that checks the work of government on behalf of citizens. Instead, we get the symbolic gesture of reductions in pay and allowances.
Good move on MPLADS
•The cancellation of MPLADS for two years, on the other hand, is a welcome move. This scheme should not be resumed after the crisis. In financial terms, there are savings of nearly Rs. 4,000 crore per year. While this is not insignificant, the larger benefit is that this will help Members of Parliament focus on their roles as national legislators. MPLADS creates several issues of accountability and jurisdiction. It impinges on separation of powers, both horizontally across different organs of state, and vertically across different levels of governance.
•Other than making laws, Members of Parliament have two key duties. They sanction the size and allocation of the government budget. They also hold the government accountable for its work, including that of spending funds appropriately. MPLADS brings in a conflict in both these roles. It asks them to identify and get specific projects executed rather than to focus on policy measures to achieve the same results and ensure that the government is implementing those policies. It distracts them from allocating and monitoring the Union Budget of Rs. 30-lakh crore to micro-managing the constituency fund of Rs. 5 crore. And since the financial audit of MPLADS is done by the Comptroller and Auditor-General and further examined by the Public Accounts Committee consisting of Members of Parliament, it adds another layer of conflict.
•MPLADS is typically spent on capital works at the local level such as a bus stop, hand pumps, school rooms, etc. These fall within the domain of the panchayats and municipalities. Members of these bodies are elected to perform an executive role. MPLADS transforms the Member of Parliament from a legislator looking at national issues to an executive solving hyper-local problems. After all, if Members of Parliament spend a large part of their time on work that should be done by local-level government, how would they have time to inform themselves while making national laws and checking the work of the Central government?
Scope for reform
•The current crisis provides several opportunities for reform. For example, Parliament should explore how technology can be used to improve its efficiency. Much of the daily paper work such as filing questions and other interventions have been digitised while protocols and infrastructure may be needed if meetings have to be held through secure video-conferencing.
•Other issues such as pay and allowances for Members of Parliament need to be discussed. The Members of Parliament should be provided with office space and research staff. They should be compensated in line with their duties as national legislators. For example, the pay (Rs. 1 lakh per month) and allowances (Rs. 1.3 lakh per month) pale in comparison to that of U.S. Senators (pay $174,000 per annum plus allowances over $3 million per annum). At the same time, hidden perks such as housing in central Delhi must be made transparent — few democracies provide housing for legislators or civil servants; they are paid well and expected to find housing on their own.
•We need public debates on issues that impact the working of our legislatures. We need to ensure that we have the right compensation structures to attract the best people to make our laws and policies. We also need to hold them accountable for their work as national legislators, i.e., the positions they took on various issues and how they ensured the government remained accountable for its actions. Distractions such as MPLADS must be done away with. After all, a representative democracy functions only as well as its legislatures do. And our freedoms are safe only if we have a robust legislature and a fiercely independent judiciary.
📰 Outdated census data keep 10 cr. out of PDS: economists
The disastrous impact of this gap is being seen in the middle of a crippling lockdown, say Jean Dreze and Reetika Khera
•Over 10 crore people have been excluded from the Public Distribution System because outdated 2011 census data is being used to calculate State-wise National Food Security Act (NFSA) coverage, according to economists Jean Dreze and Reetika Khera.
•The disastrous impact of this gap is being seen in the middle of a crippling lockdown, as people who have lost their livelihoods depend on PDS for daily survival.
•Under the NFSA, the PDS is supposed to cover 75% of the population in rural areas and 50% of the population in urban areas, which works out to 67% of the total population, using the rural-urban population ratio in 2011. India’s population was about 121 crore in 2011 and so PDS covered approximately 80 crore people.
•However, applying the 67% ratio to a projected population of 137 crore for 2020, PDS coverage today should be around 92 crore. Even taking into account growing urbanisation, the shortfall would be around 10 crore people who have slipped through the cracks, said the two economists and Right to Food campaigners in a statement on Wednesday.
Big gaps
•The biggest gaps are in Uttar Pradesh, where 2.8 crore people may have been left out, and Bihar, which would have had almost 1.8 crore people excluded from the NFSA. State-specific birth and death rates from 2016 were used to calculate the population growth rate and projected population estimates, said the statement.
•When the NFSA came into effect in 2013, State-wise ratios were worked out for rural and urban areas, using National Sample Survey data, in such a manner that everyone below a given national “per-capita expenditure benchmark” is covered, meaning that PDS coverage should be higher in poorer States.
•While the population data from the 2011 census was used to translate these ratios into absolute numbers, Right to Food activists have long argued that the numbers should have been updated using projected population figures, allowing State governments to issue new ration cards over time. Instead, the Centre’s calculation of the actual number of people to be covered in each State has remained “frozen.”
•Many State governments are reluctant to issue new ration cards beyond the numbers that will be provided for by the Central quota, making it difficult to reduce exclusion errors in the PDS.
•For example, there are about seven lakh pending applications for ration cards in Jharkhand, because the State government stopped issuing new ration cards several years ago to avoid exceeding the numbers provided for by the Central government, said Dr. Khera and Dr. Dreze.
•With the 2021 census process being delayed due to the COVID-19 crisis, any proposed revision of PDS coverage using that data could now take several years.
