📰 RBI cuts rates, allows loan moratorium
To ease impact of lockdown, repo and reverse repo rates reduced; EMIs deferred for three months
•The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has opened up the liquidity floodgates for banks even as it reduced the key interest rate sharply by 75 bps and allowed equated monthly instalments (EMIs) to be deferred by three months in a move to fight the economic impact of the countrywide lockdown to check the spread of novel coronavirus.
•The repo rate was reduced to by 75 bps 4.4% while the reverse repo rate was cut by 90 bps point to 4%. The higher reduction in the reverse repo rate was aimed at prompting banks to lend more rather than keeping their excess liquidity with the RBI.
Unprecedented crisis
•“We are living through an extraordinary and unprecedented situation. Everything hinges on the depth of the COVID-19 outbreak, its spread and its duration,” RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said.
•“Clearly, a war effort has to be mounted to combat the virus, involving both conventional and unconventional measures,” Mr. Das said.
•The meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which was scheduled for March 31 and April 1,3, was advanced to March 27 due to the unprecedented crisis.
•While cutting benchmark rates, the RBI has continued with its accommodative stance. Four of the six members of the monetary policy committee voted in favour of a 75 bps rate cut.
•Apart from cutting the repo rate, RBI has also reduced the cash reserve ratio of banks which released Rs. 1.37 lakh crore liquidity. This, along with other measures, will see an infusion of Rs. 3.74 lakh crore into the banking system.
•RBI has also allowed banks to defer payment of EMIs on home, car, personal loans as well as credit card dues for three months till May 31. Since non-payment will not lead to non-performing asset classification by banks, there will be no impact on credit score of the borrowers.
•State Bank of India, the country’s largest lender, promptly responded to the RBI’s action and reduced the lending rates linked to a external benchmark and the repo rate by 75 bps. Interest rate on external benchmark linked loans was cut from 7.8% to 7.05% and those are linked to repo rate were cut to 6.65%. “Consequently, EMIs on Home Loan accounts get cheaper by around Rs. 52 per 1 lakh on a 30-year loan,” SBI said.
As COVID-19 adds to security threat, operations at Herat, Jalalabad suspended
•With a growing number of cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection from Iran and Pakistan and the worsening security situation, India has decided to suspend operations at its missions in the Afghanistan cities of Jalalabad and Herat, highly placed sources confirmed to The Hindu .
•Diplomatic staff and personnel of the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) are being pulled out.
•On Sunday, all Indian personnel at the Consulate in Jalalabad, near the Pakistan border, were moved to Kabul, and are likely to return to India by special flights coming in to transport Afghan citizens back. Those at the Consulate in Herat near the Iranian border are likely to return later this week.
•Officials say that an influx of Afghan refugees over the porous borders from Iran, which has seen more than 38,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19, and from Pakistan that has seen a rapid rise to more than 1,200 confirmed cases, has raised concerns about Herat and Jalalabad in particular. Last week, Afghan Health Minister Ferozuddin Feroz had said there were predictions that as much as half the population would contract the virus at some point.
•The move to pull out Indian personnel also follows a deep security assessment undertaken by the government on the situation in Afghanistan following the deadly attack by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) on a gurdwara in Kabul on March 25, in which 25 people, including an Indian were gunned down.
•A senior official said the government’s view of the security situation and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was that it cannot be “business as usual” for the Indian missions.
•“For Pakistan, Afghanistan has always been about strategic depth, and now the ISI is emboldened to do as it pleases,” a senior official told The Hindu. He added that two-thirds of ISKP recruits are Orakzai tribe members, living on the Pakistan side of the Durand Line.
•As a result, India’s assessment is that the month-old U.S.-Taliban deal, which only stipulates that the Taliban will ensure no attacks on American forces and interests, will lead to an increase in attacks on Indian missions. New Delhi is re-strategising the impact on all Indian missions, installations and projects, sources said.
📰 The deep void in global leadership
There is as yet no comprehensive, concerted plan of action by world leaders to combat the pandemic
•The coronavirus’s flight across the world at lightning speed, has exposed the total void in collective leadership at the global level. Three months into the catastrophic war declared by an invisible, almost invincible virus, that is rapidly gobbling up human lives, regardless of citizenship and race, and contemptuously ravaging economies across continents, there is as yet no comprehensive, concerted plan of action, orchestrated by global leaders, to combat this terror.
•The G20 has just had a virtual meeting, we understand, at the prodding of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It is encouraging to learn that the G20 leaders have agreed to inject $5-trillion into the world economy to partially counter the devastating economic impact of the pandemic. This is indeed good news. But taking collective ownership to fight a global war against the virus will require a lot more than writing cheques.
Good war, bad enemy
•World leaders are obviously overwhelmed with their own national challenges and do not appear inclined to view the pandemic as a common enemy against mankind, which it is. China delayed reporting the virus to the World Health Organisation (WHO), and perhaps, in the process, contributed to the exacerbation of the spread of the virus across the globe. It was reported that the Trump administration did not even inform the European Union before it shut off flights from Europe. It must be acknowledged that the initiative taken by Mr. Modi in the early days to convene a meeting of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation countries stands out in contrast to the pusillanimous leadership around the world.
•There is no evidence that, at the global level, the pandemic has abated yet and would be brought under control soon. To imagine that nations would be able to tame the virus soon with massive shutdowns might be just wishful thinking. National shutdowns and physical distancing have been a challenge not only in the Unied States and some European countries, it would be more so in populous countries such as India. At any rate, such lockouts come at enormous economic and social costs. As long as the virus is alive in some corner of the world, it would resume its travel across the world the moment international travel restrictions are relaxed. Is it realistic to imagine that international travel will remain suspended until the last virus alive on this planet is extinguished? Epidemiologists point out that unless herd immunity develops — which will take long and come at the cost of at least half the population being infected — the virus will remain alive and strike whenever there is a lowering of guard.
•This millennium has already suffered three pandemics and COVID-19 will certainly not be the last.
•This is a war. A good war against a bad enemy, and a common enemy, that respects no borders. If this global challenge is not a battle to be fought by a collective global leadership, nothing else is. And yet, the typical response by all affected nations, has been to impose ‘National distancing’ by closing borders. While this is no doubt, a most appropriate response, there is a much bigger and emergent need for leaders of nations to come together for collective global action.
Seeds of indifference
•Two developments in the global polity in the last few years have contributed to the indifference towards collective global action.
•One, the swing towards right-wing nationalism, as a guiding political ideology, in large swathes of the world, particularly in the U.S. This ideology posits ‘global good’ being in conflict with and inimical to national interests. The dramatic announcement by U.S. President Trump, in June 2017, that the U.S. will cease involvement from the Paris Accord on climate change, preparatory to full withdrawal after the mandatory period, on the ground that the accord will ‘undermine U.S. economic interest’ is a classic demonstration of narrow nationalism trumping global interests. There is no issue more global than climate change, and yet the U.S. Administration chose to look at it from the prism of national, short-term economic interest.
•Two, the atrophy of multilateral institutions. The United Nations was the outcome of the shared vision of the world leaders after World War II, that collective action is the only way forward to prevent the occurrence of another war. That institution has notoriously failed to live up to its expectations to maintain peace among nations in the nearly 80 years since its formation. Its affiliate organisations have, in several ways, failed to deliver on their lofty missions. In particular, WHO, which has as its objective ‘to be the directing and coordinating authority among member countries in health emergencies’, has proven to be too lethargic in reacting to pandemics in the past. Its responses to COVID-19, has come under the scanner, not merely for incompetence, but also for lack of intellectual integrity.
G20 offers hope
•If the world leaders realise the relevance and critical importance of collective global action in the context of the present pandemic, it is not difficult to contrive an appropriate mechanism quickly to get into war. A nimble outfit, not burdened with bureaucracy, is required to manage a global crisis of the nature that we are confronted with, today. The G20, with co-option of other affected countries, itself might serve the purpose for the present. What is important is for the global leaders to acknowledge what every foot soldier knows: winning a war would require the right strategy, rapid mobilisation of relevant resources and, most importantly, timely action.
•In facing the present challenge, the following actions should come out of such a collective.
•First, the collective should ensure that shortages of drugs, medical equipment and protective gear do not come in the way of any nation’s capacity to contain or fight the pandemic. It is very likely that some nations that have succeeded in bringing the pandemic under control, such as China, Japan or South Korea, might have the capability to step up production at short notice to meet the increasing demand from other countries which are behind the curve. This would typically involve urgent development of an information exchange on global production capacity, present and potential, demand and supply. This is not to mean that there should be centralised management, which is not only infeasible, but counterproductive, as the attendant bureaucracy will impede quick action. A common information exchange could restrain the richer countries from predatory contracting of global capacities.
•Second, protocols might need to be put in place among participating countries to ensure seamless logistics for the supply chain for essential goods and services to function efficiently. This might be particularly necessary in the context of controls on international traffic and national shutdowns. There would need to be concomitant accord to eliminate all kinds of tariff and non tariff barriers.
Information exchange is vital
•Third, there needs to be instantaneous exchange of authenticated information on what clinical solutions have succeeded and what has not. A classic example is the issue relating to hydroxychloroquine, which is being used experimentally, bypassing the rigours of randomised clinical trials. While there is no substitute to classic clinical proof, the more field-level information is shared within the medical community, the better will be the success rates of such experimentation.
•Fourth, this is a time to have cross-country collaboration on laboratory trials and clinical validation for vaccines and anti-viral drugs. It must be acknowledged that WHO has already moved on this issue, although, perhaps, belatedly. The world can ill-afford delays, as the pandemic is predicted to stage a comeback once the shutdowns are gradually relaxed. The best way to ensure speedy research is to pool global resources. Any effort at reinventing the wheel will only delay the outcomes. This attempt to collaborate might also bring in its wake an acceptable commercial solution that adequately incentivises private research, while ensuring benefits being available to the entire world at affordable costs. Such a framework might be necessary for sustained collaborations for future challenges.
•Fifth, there is a need to facilitate easy movement of trained health professionals across the world to train others and augment resources wherever there are shortages. In other words, nations should come together to organise a global army to fight the pandemic, equipped with the best weapons and tools.
Food watch
•Sixth, we must anticipate food shortages occurring sooner or later, in some part of the world, consequent to the national shutdowns. Ironically, while we might have saved lives from the assault of the novel coronavirus, we might run the risk of losing lives to starvation and malnutrition, somewhere in the world if we do not take adequate precautions. This requires not only coordinated global action; it would also turn out to be the test of global concern for mankind in general.
•Eventually, there is no doubt that human talent will triumph over the microscopic virus. It may be some months before we declare our win. But the economic devastation, that would have been caused as a result will be no less than the aftermath of a world war. Economies of the world are inexorably intertwined. An orderly reconstruction of the global economy, which is equitable and inclusive, will eventually involve renegotiating terms of trade among key trading blocs, concerted action among central bankers to stabilise currencies, and a responsible way to regulate and manage global commodity markets.
•Does India have the power to awaken the conscience of the Superpowers and catalyse collective global action? Remember, historically, it is always the weakling or the oppressed, who have caused transformational changes in the world order.
📰 Looking beyond just diagnosis and quarantine
There is need in India for a rapid response research and development team to handle viral onslaughts
•A pandemic is upon the world and coronavirus is not the last word. Ebola, Zika, Nipah, SARS, MERS, H1N1 and now COVID-19 — the viral onslaughts will continue. Mutations of known viruses will periodically cause havoc, whatever be the reasons. While the Zika virus is spread by Aedes mosquitoes, the main reason for these viral infections seems to be the proximity and contact with animals including wild animals, either as exotic food menu or the use of animal parts as aphrodisiacs. Bats seem to be another constant source of new viruses. Seafood has also been stated to be a cause for the Wuhan outbreak.
•In India, given the population density and unsatisfactory hygiene conditions and awareness, citizens can face serious situation even though the disease may have originated elsewhere. Bacterial infections such as cholera, typhoid have drug and vaccine options. Some of the viruses listed above do not have a vaccine or drugs available as yet. In India the options are always limited to diagnosis as per World Health Organization protocols and seem to be the exclusive domain of the National Institute of Virology (NIV), Pune and its designated centres. I feel that it is important for India to be able to do much better in terms of therapeutic options, although prevention is the best option. But, there are always leakages as can be seen with COVID-19 cases in the developed countries. India does have the expertise to put a team together to respond much more than just diagnosis and quarantine.
On sequencing
•What can be done? The first requirement is to sequence the genome of all the isolates from infected patients in India. COVID-19, for example, is an RNA virus. This would require conversion to DNA and then the sequence of the alphabets (ATGC) worked out. COVID-19 is less than 30kb (30,000) alphabets in size and can be sequenced in 24 hours in India. There was a suggestion in the article, “How is India containing COVID-19?” (‘FAQ’ page, The Hindu, March 8, 2020), that the virus in India is different from that in China on the basis of genome sequence made available by NIV, Pune.
•The virus is evolving rapidly and the mutations seen in the virus isolates in the United States, for example, are different from those in China. There was also a hint that this could also be due to sequencing error. It needs to be realised that the copying mechanism of RNA to DNA can make errors.
•In any case, it is important to sequence the virus isolates in at least three different institutions in India to ensure that sequencing errors are eliminated. A knowledge of genome sequence is essential to design drugs and vaccines.
In the short and long term
•A quick response is to evaluate repurposed known drugs (a drug development strategy predicated on the reuse of existing licensed drugs for new medical indications) including natural products, for therapy. For example, in the case of COVID-19, anti-HIV drugs are being evaluated. Even hydroxy chloroquine, an antimalarial, is suggested as an adjunct drug option, since it can make the acidic endosome compartment in which the virus replicates alkaline to prevent the process. One other option is to try passive immunisation with plasma derived from convalescing patients, who have completely recovered. Yet another strategy is to clone B cells from such patients to make therapeutic antibodies. All these would require informed consent from patients and policy decisions.
•A long-term approach could be to clone the genome, make recombinant antigens and then test for vaccine potential and new drug design. A phage library expressing all possible human antibodies (single chain) is available for screening. The virus, or its mimic, needs to be cultured for drug screening. All these approaches would eventually need clinical trials to be taken forward on fast-track with the cooperation of the office of the Drug Controller General of India.
Use the vast expertise
•My estimate of a quick response is three months, and long term is 18 months. In my opinion the expert team should represent the following areas with institutions listed in parenthesis as examples: clinical virology (NIV, Pune; Translational Health Science and Technology Institute, Faridabad, Haryana), molecular virology (Regional Centre for Biotechnology, Faridabad; the Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru), scale-up of vaccine production (Serum Institute of India, Pune; Gennova, Pune; Bharat Biotech, Hyderabad), clinical trial and drugs (Sun Pharma, Ahmednagar, Maharashtra; Reddy Labs, Hyderabad; Drug Controller General of India), DNA/RNA sequencing expertise (National Institute of Biomedical Genomics, Kalyani; Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology, Hyderabad; Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology, New Delhi).
•I want to emphasise the point that the institutions listed in parenthesis are only examples and there are many others and with over-lapping expertise, that includes the private sector. Such an expert committee can be overseen by an independent expert committee comprising senior, experienced scientists and administrators. The committees should cut across the territorial integrity of government science and technology departments and include the private sector.
•The bottom line is to make use of the expertise built in the country over the years to scientifically respond to such challenges in terms of therapeutic options that are at least as important as sending up satellites into space or landing a man on the moon.
