📰 India and the U.S., oceans apart
There are conceptual differences between the two countries on the Indo-Pacific
•The U.S. has sold nearly $15 billion worth of arms to India over the last 10 years. So the Donald Trump administration’s displeasure at India’s recent decision to buy the S-400 missile system from Russia puts a question mark about the future of India-U.S. cooperation in the Indo-Pacific for three reasons. Washington perceives Russia as a security threat. It stresses interoperability with U.S. armed forces. And, believing that the U.S. makes ‘the best military product in the world’, Mr. Trump aims to help American defence firms compete successfully against Russian and Chinese arms manufacturers.
Interpreting a label
•Some in New Delhi have interpreted Washington’s use of the label “Indo-Pacific” to mean that the U.S. has made India the central point of the Indo-Pacific. But neither Mr. Trump nor the National Security Strategy (NSS) document of 2017, (which outlined America’s top security concerns, have corroborated the Indian interpretation.
•When Mr. Trump first spoke about the Indo-Pacific at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in Da Nang, Vietnam, in November 2017, he hailed Vietnam as being at “the very heart of the Indo-Pacific”. The NSS 2017 views the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and APEC as “centerpieces of the Indo-Pacific’s regional architecture”.
•The Indo-Pacific, as described in the NSS, represents the most populous and economically dynamic part of the world and “stretches from the west coast of India to the western shores of the United States”.
•That strategic vision does not cater to India’s interests. The NSS 2017 has omitted some of India’s most vital interests, including the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Also left out is the Strait of Malacca, which links the Indian and Pacific Oceans and is India’s gateway to trade with Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea.
Countering China
•Mr. Trump’s concept of the Indo-Pacific seeks to counter China’s assertiveness in Asia. China is the main security threat to U.S. primacy in Asia. It also has a long-standing border dispute with India. That gives India and the U.S. a shared interest in countering China’s growing military power and territorial revisionist tendencies. But do they agree on how it could be done?
•For Mr. Trump, economic security is national security. The NSS 2017 recognises that China’s military power rests on its economic progress and its focus is on blunting China’s competitive edge.
•Mr. Trump’s ideal of “America first” is about protecting American jobs, ensuring reciprocal bilateral trade practices, and the key role of the private sector — not the state — in directing investment. Do these priorities align with India’s economic and trade policies?
•Business engagement is at the centre of the Trump administration’s strategy for a “free and open Indo-Pacific”. For India, defence cooperation is the most significant dimension of the India-U.S. strategic partnership.
•India itself is unclear about what it means by the Indo-Pacific. New Delhi has tended to present the term “Indo-Pacific” as raising India’s strategic stature. But at the Shangri-La Dialogue in June, Prime Minister Narendra Modi hailed ASEAN as the foundation of the Indo-Pacific and asserted that a geographical definition could not be a strategy to contain any country.
•How useful is India to the U.S.? The NSS says: “Prosperous states are stronger security partners who are able to share the burden of confronting common threats.” Is the current talk of India’s economic prowess more about potential than reality? China’s economy ($14 trillion) is nearly five times bigger than India’s, and its defence spending ($228 billion) is far more than India’s $63 billion.
•Mr. Trump wants India to offer more investment to Asian countries. But India needs Chinese investment to upgrade its own infrastructure and is nowhere near competing successfully against China as an investor in Southeast Asia. In 2016, two-way trade between India and ASEAN moved up to $71.6 billion. In contrast, two-way trade between China and ASEAN stood at more than $452 billion. Moreover, Mr. Trump’s contemptuous labelling of India as the “tariff king” points to strong differences over trade practices.
Maritime clout
•At another level, maritime power is the key to international clout in the 21st century. About 90% of India’s trade passes through the Indian Ocean. India has less than 20 submarines in service; China 78. That is one reason why India needs the intelligence-sharing and drones promised by the U.S. at the 2+2 Dialogue in September to detect Chinese submarines in the Indian Ocean. Significantly, of India’s three services, its Navy gets around 15% of the defence budget. The U.S. Navy and Marines get the lion’s share of the U.S. military budget.
•Moreover, in April 2017, China successfully launched its second aircraft carrier, which was domestically built. But it will be many years before India’s second home-built aircraft carrier becomes operational. Unsurprisingly, the U.S. is sceptical about India’s capacity to counter the growing influence of China in the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
•Dependent on the U.S. and Russia for most of its arms — and on the U.S. and China for much of its trade — India’s simultaneous efforts to cultivate good relations with the U.S., Russia and China highlight the conceptual differences between New Delhi and Washington on the Indo-Pacific and on how best to counter China in Asia. India-U.S. ties could also be encumbered by India’s need for greater economic strength, its red tape and its trading methods.
•Sovereignty is, above all, sovereignty in foreign policy, said Jawaharlal Nehru. The extent to which India’s purchase of the S-400 will widen the gap between it and the U.S. on the Indo-Pacific will soon become apparent.
📰 Protecting against polio
Why the inactivated polio vaccine is essential for India
•With wild polio virus strains reduced by 99.9% since 1988, the world is inching towards eradicating polio. But unfortunately, more children today are affected by the live, weakened virus contained in the oral polio vaccine (OPV) that is meant to protect them. The weakened virus in the vaccine can circulate in the environment, occasionally turn neurovirulent and cause vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) in unprotected children. While the wild-type virus has caused 22 and 25 polio cases in 2017 and 2018 (as on October 30, 2018), respectively, in just two countries (Pakistan and Afghanistan), VDPV was responsible for 96 and 75 polio cases in more countries during the same periods. “Paradoxically, vaccination (using OPV) has become the main source of polio paralysis in the world,” notes a 2018 paper in The Lancet .
The VAPP burden
•While circulating VDPV strains are tracked, and outbreaks and cases are recorded and shared, little is known about vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP) cases, particularly in India. VAPP occurs when the virus turns virulent within the body of a recently vaccinated child and causes polio. The frequency of VAPP cases varies across countries. With high-income countries switching to the inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) that uses dead virus to immunise children, the VAPP burden is concentrated in low-income countries which continue to use the OPV.
•In spite of the World Health Organisation asking all countries using the OPV to include a “continuous and effective system of surveillance” to monitor the frequency of VAPP in 1982, India did not comply. Data on VAPP became available only years after active polio surveillance was initiated in 1997, say Jacob John, a virologist and formerly with the Christian Medical College, Vellore, and a polio expert, and Dhanya Dharmapalan in a paper published in September in theIndian Journal of Medical Ethics. However, even after 1997, India did not count VAPP cases. “This is because it does not add value to the polio elimination programme,” says Pradeep Haldar, Deputy Commissioner of the Immunisation Division, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.
•The justification that VAPP cases can be ignored as they are “sporadic and pose little or no threat to others” is ethically flawed. The stand that VAPP cases are epidemiologically irrelevant is ethically problematic, note Dr. John and Vipin M. Vashishtha in a 2012 paper in Indian Pediatrics .
•Many member countries autonomously chose the IPV over the OPV, mainly to avoid any risk of VAPP. In India, the VAPP cases can be avoided once the government stops using the OPV to immunise children. “India ignored the problem of VAPP until their numbers were counted,” writes Dr. John. A paper and a letter published in 2002 in the Bulletin of the WHO said the number of VAPP cases in India in 1999, 2000 and 2001 were 181, 129 and 109, respectively.
•The WHO had suggested a rate of 1 case of VAPP per million births and had estimated the annual global burden of VAPP to be approximately 120 cases in 2002. Under these circumstances, India’s share would been merely 25 VAPP cases per year, based on the annual birth cohort of 25 million. But the observed number of cases in India in 1999 was 181. “This indicates that the actual risk is seven times the expected number... It is reasonable to assume that there would be 400-800 annual cases of VAPP globally,” Dr. John wrote in 2002 in the Bulletin . That would have meant that there were 100-200 VAPP cases in India each year. The global estimated incidence of VAPP was then revised to 200-400 cases.
•Despite knowing that there is a higher burden of polio caused by oral vaccines, India continued to use the OPV. “The decision to use only the OPV was faulty. Parents were obliged to accept the OPV and face the consequences of VAPP as well as VDVP,” Dr. John says.
•Says Dr. Haldar: “India’s goal was to eradicate polio, and the OPV was crucial for that. The IPV produces humoral immunity (involving antibodies in body fluids) so the immunised child does not get paralysis, but it can’t stop the circulation of wild polio viruses. For instance, no polio cases were seen in Israel but wild polio viruses were detected in the environment. The viruses will continue to circulate in the community.”
•Dr. John counters this: “The primary objective of polio vaccination is to prevent the disease, which the OPV failed to fully achieve. The OPV was used for eradicating purposes but without fully protecting the children. When you give a vaccine, you must ensure that the child doesn’t get polio. Only the IPV can do that. A child has to be given several doses of the OPV. Even then, the OPV doesn’t fully protect the child. There was no reason for not using both the IPV and the OPV.”
•It is easier to administer the OPV than the IPV and the cost per dose of OPV is also lower than that of the IPV. However, the OPV fared poorly on two important counts: safety and efficacy. “Administering the OPV was easier than the IPV but no cost-benefit analysis was done before choosing the OPV,” says Dr. John. “Three doses protected only two-thirds of Indian children and many developed polio before they turned one year. So we had to give more doses per child.”
•While high-income countries preferred the IPV, India and other low-income countries continued to rely on the OPV. India licensed the IPV only in 2006 but did not introduce it in routine immunisation.
Switching to IPV
•“The reason for not switching over to the IPV is because global production was too low to meet India’s demand. India is the largest cohort. It needs 48 million doses per year to immunise all children,” Dr. Haldar says.
•This is a feeble excuse. As Pushpa Bhargava noted in an article in The Hindu(2008), the decision to manufacture the IPV in India was taken in 1988 and a company was eventually set up with technology transfer from France. The minutes of the meeting that year in Delhi read: “Indigenous production of IPV before 1991 shall be aimed at… As new IPV programme ramps up, the OPV will ramp down.” But the plan was shelved.
•The IPV is essential for post wild-type polio virus eradication, to get rid of VDPV and VAPP. The globally synchronised switch from trivalent to bivalent OPV in mid-2016 was accompanied by administering a single dose of the IPV prior to administering the OPV. “A single dose of the IPV given before the OPV prevents VAPP cases,” Dr. John says. A single dose of the IPV primes the immune system and the antibodies against the polio virus, seen in more than 90% of immunised infants, notes a paper in The Lancet.
•With no way of monitoring VAPP cases in India, there is no way of knowing if the use of a single dose of IPV followed by immunisation using bivalent OPV has led to a reduction in the number of VAPP cases.
📰 Public order: Supreme Court’s ruling
•A competent authority under the Preventive Detention Act is entitled to take action to prevent subversion of “public order,” but not in aid of maintenance of “law and order” under ordinary circumstances. Before a contravention of any law could be said to affect “public order,” it must affect the community at large. Cases of assaults on solitary individuals might be said to lead to “disorder,” though not “public disorder.” The former type of cases could be dealt with by the executive under the ordinary criminal law of the land. Handing down this ruling the Supreme Court has ordered that Mr. Pushkar Mukherjea and fifteen others, who were detained by the West Bengal Government under the Preventive Detention Act, be “set at liberty forthwith.”
📰 No ‘less cash’ two years post note ban
Cash in circulation and ATM withdrawals have only increased, RBI data shows
•Thursday, November 8, marks the second anniversary of the demonetisation exercise. It was on the same day in 2016 that Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that Rs. 1,000 and Rs. 500 currency notes would no longer be legal tender. These notes constituted over 86% of the currency in circulation, then.
•One of the objectives of demonetisation was to move to a ‘less-cash’ society. However, two years down the line, it appears the objective has not been achieved.
•According to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data, currency in circulation rose to Rs. 19.6 lakh crore as on October 26, 2018, a 9.5% growth from two years ago. The currency in circulation was Rs. 17.9 lakh crore on November 4, 2016, the week before the note ban came into force.
•With cash back in the system, ATM withdrawals have picked up. According to RBI data, cash withdrawals from ATMs grew 8% to Rs. 2.75 lakh crore in August 2018 from Rs. 2.54 lakh crore in October 2016. The October figure, which will be released in December, could well be higher, as withdrawals generally increase in the festival season. Cash withdrawals from ATMs fell sharply during the demonetisation exercise, hitting Rs. 1.06 lakh crore in December 2016.
ATM numbers
•While cash withdrawals have gained pace, addition of ATMs has been slow. In the last two years, about 8,000-odd ATMs had been added. In the three months till August 2018, ATMs expansion has picked up again with about 1,000 ATMs being added every month. There are 2.28 lakh ATMs as of August 2018.
•Mobile banking transactions in August 2018 stood at Rs. 2.06 lakh crore, 82% higher than the October 2016 figure of Rs. 1.13 lakh crore.
📰 ASEAN member countries of RCEP offer India concession
India can open up 83% of its market against the earlier 92%
•Several Asian member countries of the proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) have offered India a significant concession on the extent to which it needs to open up its markets, in a bid to encourage it to join the partnership quickly, according to a diplomat from Singapore.
•The RCEP is a proposed trade agreement between the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries and their six free trade agreement partners, namely Australia, China, India, Japan, Korea, and New Zealand.
•The grouping would comprise 25% of global GDP, 30% of global trade, 26% of FDI flows, and 45% of the population.
•“The ASEAN countries are keen to have India as part of the partnership and have made India a concessional offer of opening up only about 83% of its market, as compared to the original 92% that the RCEP agreement stipulated,” the Singaporean diplomat said on condition of anonymity.
Trade with China
•“And regarding India’s concerns about further opening its market to China and skewing the trade deficit between them further, the RCEP allows for bilateral agreements also to be made so India can perhaps open up to China gradually and not in one go.”
•Opening up its market to China has been India’s main concern about joining RCEP, a sentiment echoed by the Commerce Ministry, NITI Aayog, and then Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian.
•India has achieved some success regarding some of its other concerns, such as getting the other RCEP countries to liberalise their services markets and allow for a more free movement of service sector professionals.
•“India stands to gain a lot from joining RCEP,” the Singaporean diplomat added. “At a time when so much trade is being diverted from China because of the ongoing trade tensions with the U.S., India can corner a lot of this if it joins RCEP.”
•Ahead of the November 14 RCEP summit, some of the countries led by Singapore, which holds the presidency of the ASEAN this year, have been keen to at least announce an agreement on “substantial outcomes” by December 31.
•“The target is to conclude as much as possible this year,” said a diplomat from another RCEP country, adding that there was “some distinction” still between those arguing for “substantial conclusion” and those for “substantial progress”, which leaders at the RCEP summit are expected to try and iron out.
December deadline
•However, the official from Singapore added that it was unlikely that India would make a decision regarding this before the general elections in 2019, even though the RCEP countries have set a December 2018 internal deadline for the “substantial outcomes”.
•India and a few other countries want only a statement on “substantial progress” to be made during the summit, and for negotiations to be pushed into the second half of next year.
•Apart from India, Indonesia and Australia are also due to go to elections in 2019, and while this adds to the urgency of concluding the RCEP negotiations, it makes it harder for governments to give any concessions on tariffs and subsidies closer to polls, given political compulsions, diplomats said.
Japan’s concern
•During last week’s summit in Tokyo, Japanese Prime Shinzo Abe is understood to have brought up the issue as well.
•“Both India and Japan are committed to freer trade, and during the visit of Prime Minister Modi to Japan, it was also agreed to work on the early conclusion of RCEP as well,” Japanese Deputy Chief of Mission Hideki Asari toldThe Hindu.
•“Negotiators are working very very hard [to complete the RCEP negotiations by year-end]. But for any trade negotiation, the conclusion is the hardest part,” said Mr. Asari.
📰 Trump claims ‘tremendous success’ despite GOP losses
It was a big win despite pressure from a nasty and hostile media, says President
•U.S. President Donald on Wednesday claimed victory in the midterm congressional elections despite his Republican Party losing control in the House of Representatives to the Democrats.
•“Those that worked with me in this incredible Midterm Election, embracing certain policies and principles, did very well. Those that did not, say goodbye!” he tweeted.
•“Yesterday was such a very Big Win, and all under the pressure of a Nasty and Hostile Media!” he added. “Tremendous success tonight. Thank you to all!” he said in another tweet.
The numbers
•The Democrats have won at least 220 seats in the 435-member House, capturing 27 seats from the Republicans. The GOP, however, maintained their control over the Senate. They control at least 51 seats in the 100-member chamber.
•In terms of governorships, the parties have split wins in key States. Democrats, who have added seven governorships to their side, won three key States that President Trump carried in the 2016 elections — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
•Florida and Ohio went to the Republicans. These States, like Michigan and Wisconsin, are expected to be crucial for the 2020 presidential election. Losing the widely watched Florida Governor Race came as a big blow to the Democrats who had pinned their hopes on a progressive candidate — the African-American Mayor of Tallahasee, Andrew Gillum — winning against lawyer Ron DeSantis, an admirer of the President.
•Mr. Trump made two trips to Florida in the last week before elections to campaign for Mr. DeSantis, lending his political clout to the race, a strategy that clearly paid off there.
Close in Georgia
•The fight was still on in Georgia, where Stacey Abrams, potentially the country’s first African-American Governor, had not conceded to Republican candidate Brian Kemp. While 100% of the precincts have had their votes tallied, Ms. Abrams’s campaign is banking on postal ballots. If both candidates get less than 50% of the vote, they will enter a run-off on December 4.
•The gubernatorial race in Florida has been mired in voting rights controversies as Democrats have accused the Republicans of voter suppression and called for Mr. Kemp to resign as Secretary of State, vested with organisational powers over the election.
•A federal judge last month had ordered that election officials stop rejecting absentee ballots on grounds of signature mismatches. On Sunday, Mr. Kemp’s office accused Democrats of hacking into the online voter registration system, a charge denied by Democrats.
•Nancy Pelosi, currently the House Minority Leader, is likely to become the Speaker of the House, though she does not enjoy support throughout her party and there is speculation that she may make room for another, perhaps younger, candidate.
Pelosi for Speaker?
•Ms. Pelosi got some unexpected support from Mr. Trump, who has been a critic in the past. “In all fairness, Nancy Pelosi deserves to be chosen Speaker of the House by the Democrats. If they give her a hard time, perhaps we will add some Republican votes,” he said on Wednesday morning on Twitter.
•Going forward, Mr. Trump will have to recalibrate his path through a presidency in which he has thus far not hesitated to barrel ahead with policies and executive orders on immigration and the border, health care and taxes.
•The Democrats, who will now chair powerful House committees, can regulate, investigate and issue subpoenas. They will likely ask to see Mr. Trump’s tax returns and investigate any ties he may have to Russia. If there are grounds for it, the House may also seek to impeach the President.
📰 China ropes in India as digital economy partner
As part of Beijing’s drive to cyber-connect with Eurasia
•In tune with its rise as an Internet giant, China is roping in India as a niche digital partner, as part of Beijing’s drive to cyber-connect with Eurasia — its new frontier for trade and investments.
•At a conference on defining common international standards for two-dimensional (2D) barcodes — the gateways for linking genuine buyers and sellers, as well as making digital payments by scanning QR codes — Chinese officials said that India is already on board in this global exercise.
•Last November Zheng Chao, Executive Director of the Global Unified Two-Dimensional Code Registration Management Centre (UTC), based in Beijing, signed a “strategic cooperation” agreement on 2D coding with his Indian counterpart. As a result, UTC (India) was formed.
•“In China, there has been a growing awareness of India’s strengths in the pharmaceutical sector and other areas. But the challenge is how to find genuine buyers and sellers. That is where 2D codes become important to solve the problem by eliminating fraudulent buyers and sellers online,” says Tian Furong, Director of the India Universal Two-dimensional code registration centre.
•She points out that so far, only exports of Indian pharmaceuticals and cotton are being funneled through the 2D coding route, though other items are likely to be added in the future.
•Analysts say that China appears more inclined to source pharmaceuticals and agro-products from India.
📰 West Bengal to observe ‘Rosogolla Day’ on Nov. 14
Day marks first anniversary of GI tag for popular sweetmeat
•The West Bengal government has decided to observe ‘Rosogolla Day’ on November 14, to commemorate the first anniversary of the State’s famous sweet getting Geographical Indication (GI) tag as ‘Bengal’s Rosogolla’, an official said on Wednesday.
•Different varieties of rosogollas would be showcased in the stalls of the ‘Mishti Hub’ (sweetmeat hub), set up in one part of the Eco Park in New Town area here, HIDCO Chairman Debasish Sen said.
•The Eco Park is managed by the West Bengal Housing Infrastructure Development Corporation (HIDCO), a State PSU.
•“We are celebrating the first anniversary of Bengal’s Rosogolla getting the GI tag at the ‘Mishti hub’ in association with sweetmeat maker associations,” said Mr. Sen, an additional chief secretary rank officer.
•The ‘Mishti hub’, opened on July 5, is the only one of its kind in the State — where renowned sweetmeat makers, including some of the traditional ones, share a roof.
‘History of rosogolla’
•Mr. Sen said there would also be discussion on the history of rosogolla, a ball-shaped cottage cheese dumpling dipped in a light syrup of sugar.
•On November 14 last year, West Bengal had received the GI tag for ‘Bengal’s Rosogolla’.
•The GI tag is a sign that identifies a product as originating from a particular place.
