📰 India, Sweden agree upon ‘win-win’ joint action plan
Modi underlines new defence production opportunities
•After a hectic day of bilateral parleys here, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Swedish counterpart, Stefan Löfven, on Tuesday agreed upon a joint action plan (JAP) for both countries to take forward a wide range of initiatives in defence, trade and investment, counterterrorism, renewable energy, smart cities, women’s skill development, space and science and healthcare.
•Characterising the JAP as a “win-win partnership” for New Delhi and Stockholm, Mr. Modi underscored the critical role of the defence sector and security initiatives as a pillar of the bilateral relationship.
•“Sweden has been partner of India in the defence sector for a long time. I am confident that new opportunities for cooperation in this sector will arise in the future, especially in defence production,” he said.
•The bilateral summit here was additionally significant for the opportunity it afforded both sides to discuss Sweden’s interest in proposing the Saab Group’s Gripen-E single-engine jet fighter for the Indian Air Force, as a Request for Information had been issued earlier this month to Stockholm.
•On counterterrorism, Mr. Modi and Mr. Löfven emphasised that the global counterterrorism legal framework should be regularly updated to address the changing threat of terrorism with strength.
•Innovation was front and centre in the bilateral summit today, with a separate discussion focused entirely on this area, and the outcome being a joint declaration on a Sweden-India Innovation Partnership for a Sustainable Future, which built upon the joint statement between the two Prime Ministers in Mumbai in 2016. Additionally a major funding boost was injected into the bilateral process when Mr. Löfven announced that “The Swedish government will kick start our Innovation Partnership by providing up to 50 million Swedish kronor (over $59 million) for innovation cooperation in the field of smart cities and sustainability.”
📰 The ‘new’ South Asia
As China’s leverage increases, New Delhi has to reimagine its terms of engagement with neighbours
•As Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks to redefine the priorities of the Commonwealth at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in London this week, India’s neighbourhood policy is coming under scrutiny. The visit of Nepali Prime Minister K.P. Oli to India earlier this month has led to suggestions that it could mark a new beginning in India-Nepal ties after the troubles of the past, and Mr. Modi is likely to visit Nepal soon in part to regain some of India’s lost strategic clout. This would also be to impart one last dose of dynamism to his ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy before the 2019 general election.
Warm to cold
•Soon after coming to power, the Modi government had promised to give priority to the immediate neighbourhood; it did engage with most of the governments here productively for some time. Relations with Sri Lanka and Bangladesh saw a dramatic improvement while Nepal was given due attention. With Afghanistan, ties were galvanised with security cooperation taking centre stage. Except for the Maldives, Mr. Modi visited all of India’s neighbours and tried to reassure them of New Delhi’s commitment to deliver the goods.
•But at the end of four years of the Modi government, the situation is vastly different. There is now the refrain that India has lost the plot in its immediate vicinity. In Sri Lanka, domestic political developments are affecting India, while in the Maldives, India has found its diminishing clout being publicly taken apart. A vocal critic of India has assumed power in Nepal, and with a massive political mandate. In the Seychelles, India is struggling to operationalise a pact to build a military facility. China’s clout, meanwhile, is growing markedly around India’s periphery, further constraining New Delhi’s ability to push its regional agenda.
•In many ways, there is nothing new in the lament today about India’s declining regional clout. This is a part of the Indian discourse and comes to the fore every few years with singular constancy. Contrary to what many suggest, there was never a golden age of Indian predominance in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region. Smaller states in the region have always had enough agency to chart their own foreign policy pathways; sometimes they converged with those of India and at other times they varied significantly. There have always been ‘extra regional’ powers which have come to the aid of India’s neighbours, often to New Delhi’s discomfiture.
The China factor
•What is true today is that post-Independence, India has never encountered anything like China in its vicinity whose intent and capabilities are posing the kind of challenge to Indian interests which New Delhi is finding hard to manage. China’s entry into the South Asian region has opened up new avenues for smaller neighbours which can be leveraged in their dealings with India. As a result, the very idea of what South Asian geography means is undergoing a change. It is not without reason that the idea of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation is gaining currency in Indian policy-making. It can potentially allow India to break through the straitjacket of the traditional confines of South Asia and leverage its Bay of Bengal identity to link up with the wider Southeast Asian region. In that sense, it is about reimagining India’s strategic geography altogether.
•But the underlying factors that have traditionally framed India’s difficulties in getting its neighbourhood policy right remain as potent as ever. India’s structural dominance of South Asia makes it a natural target of resentment and suspicion which New Delhi has often found difficult to overcome. India is also part of the domestic politics of most regional states where anti-India sentiment is often used to bolster the nationalist credentials of various political formations. State identity in South Asia often gets linked to oppositional politics vis-à-vis India. South Asian states remain politically fragile and the economic projects in the region have failed to take off as a result. This means that the room available for India to manoeuvre in the region is severely limited despite what many in New Delhi and outside would like to believe.
•Successive Indian governments have struggled to get a grip on the neighbourhood. Initially, the struggle with Pakistan engaged a large part of India’s diplomatic capital. Today, there seems to be a clear recognition that India’s Pakistan policy is merely a subset of India’s China policy. And as Beijing’s economic and political engagement in India’s periphery has grown, New Delhi is coming to terms with the reality of a ‘new’ South Asia. India will not only have to more creatively reimagine its strategic geography but also evolve new terms of engagement with its neighbours; terms which reflect the reality of our times in which both India and its neighbours can have a stake in each other’s success.
📰 Non-alignment redux
What non-alignment means to India depends on the prism throughwhich it is viewed
•As the 18th mid-term ministerial meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) concluded in early April in Azerbaijan, the question of India’s non-alignment status resurfaced, even if the country’s official position on the matter has arguably remained unchanged over the years. Indeed, as a founding member of NAM, India has remained committed to the purposes and principles of the movement.
•The NAM question initially arose in response to the erstwhile bipolarity of political power during the Cold War years, with most nations aligning themselves to either the U.S. or the Soviet Union. The end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union spurred the question of what the essence of NAM was, and with respect to whom the NAM countries remained non-aligned. The ‘Ten principles of Bandung’, which were proclaimed in the Asian-African Conference in 1955, outlined the principles of NAM. Being the largest member-state of NAM, India has been one of the leaders of the movement since the time of Jawaharlal Nehru, one of the founding fathers of this movement.
•Against the backdrop of this history, it would be a mistake to see NAM merely as a rejection of Cold War bloc politics. Non-alignment stood — and presumably still stands — for policy autonomy for the erstwhile newly independent countries. These countries bandied together because of their shared traditions and history, which included anti-colonialism, anti-imperialism and anti-racism. The idea behind non-alignment thus conceived was to promote peace and security in a global arena where superpowers were constantly posturing to achieve their hegemonic ambitions. In that context, NAM helped preserve the sovereignty of many young nations, including democracies such as India which wished to follow the path of strategic independence.
•Today, questions are being raised about India’s non-aligned credentials, particularly after India joined the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a coalition seen by many as a counterforce to China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific. Coinciding with this is Russia’s drift from India and the emergence of a Russia-China-Pakistan trilateral. The key question is: given the perception in some quarters that India is well-inclined towards the U.S. and its allies, while it has simultaneously allowed a drift away from its old allies such as Russia, is it not far less credible for India to claim to be non-aligned?
•If non-alignment is seen purely through the prism of alliances, a question mark hangs over India’s non-aligned credentials. However, India can still claim to be non-aligned if non-alignment is assessed through the principles of NAM. Regardless, there is little doubt that India needs to do more to explain what non-alignment means to it now as the global order has changed dramatically in recent years.
📰 Law Commission favours simultaneous elections
Draft white paper suggests constitutional amendments to meet objective
•A draft white paper released by the Law Commission of India on Tuesday recommends holding of simultaneous elections to the Lok Sabha and the Assemblies, possibly in 2019.
•It suggests amending the Constitution to realise this objective.
•In a public notice annexed to the draft, the commission, which is the government’s highest law advisory body, said the white paper would be circulated to “constitutional experts, academia, political parties, bureaucrats, students, etc.” The commission, headed by former Supreme Court judge Justice B.S. Chauhan, says opinions and suggestions should come in by May 8, 2018.
•The commission says simultaneous elections were held in the country during the first two decades after Independence up to 1967. Dissolution of certain Assemblies in 1968 and 1969 followed by the dissolution of the Lok Sabha led to the “disruption of the conduct of simultaneous elections.” The panel refers to a January 2017 working paper of the NITI Aayog on simultaneous elections.
•The white paper contains a series of “possible recommendations” of the commission.
•The first among these is that “simultaneous elections may be restored in the nation by amending the Constitution, Representation of the People Act of 1951 and the Rules of Procedure of the Lok Sabha and Assemblies.”
•It recommends that in 2019, the election could be held in phases. In the first phase, it says, elections to the legislatures which are scheduled to go for polls synchronous with the Lok Sabha in 2019 could be held together. The rest of the States could go to elections in proximity with the Lok Sabha elections of 2024.
•Citing no-confidence motion and premature dissolution of House as major roadblocks to simultaneous elections, the commission says the parties which introduce the no-confidence motion should simultaneously give a suggestion for an alternative government.
•It even suggests the relaxation of the “rigours” of the anti-defection law in the Tenth Schedule to prevent a stalemate in the Lok Sabha or Assemblies in case of a hung Parliament or Assembly.
•The panel says that in case of mid-term elections, the new Lok Sabha or Assembly would only serve the remainder of the term of the previous Lok Sabha/Assembly and not a fresh term of five years.
•The commission says the Centre should get the Constitutional amendments, if agreed upon, to be ratified by all the States so as to avoid any challenge to them.
•It also says that the Prime Minister/Chief Minister should be “elected” to lead by the full House like the Lok Sabha Speaker.
📰 Nod awaited to induct jurist into Lokpal panel
Centre will take a final call on recommendation, SC told
•The high-profile Lokpal selection committee, led by the Prime Minister, met on April 10 and the recommendations for the induction of an eminent jurist in the panel is awaiting approval, the government informed the Supreme Court on Tuesday.
•“K.K. Venugopal, Attorney General, has made a statement that in the meeting of the Selection Committee held on April 10, 2018 recommendations for induction/appointment of an eminent jurist in the Committee has been made and approval of the recommendation is presently pending,” the Supreme Court recorded in its order.
Bench urges speed
•A Bench led by Justice Ranjan Gogoi urged the government to complete the Lokpal appointment process at the earliest.
•“As steps for appointment of the Lokpal have been taken, we do not consider it expedient to pass any further orders at this stage except to express the expectation of the court that appointment of Lokpal will be made at the earliest possible,” the Bench said in its order.
•The court scheduled the matter for further hearing on May 15.
•Besides the Prime Minister, the selection committee is composed of Chief Justice of India and Lok Sabha Speaker.
•Mallikarjun Kharge, in his capacity as the leader of the single largest opposition party leader in the Lok Sabha, had refused to attend a meeting of the committee convened on March 1 though he was called as a “special invitee”.
•Though passed in 2014, the Lokpal and Lokayukta Act of 2013 was not implemented all these years because there was no Leader of Opposition (LoP) in the 16th Lok Sabha.
LoP row
•The 2013 statute includes the LoP as a member of the selection committee. The Act intends the LoP to be the part of the selection committee of the PM, the CJI and the Speaker, which has to first appoint an eminent jurist among their ranks.
•However, on April 27 last year, the Supreme Court, in a judgment, clarified that the Lokpal appointment process need not be stalled merely due to the absence of the LoP.
•The judgment dismissed the government's reasoning that the Lokpal appointment process should wait till the 2013 Act was amended to replace the LoP with the single largest opposition party leader.
•The present hearing before Justice Gogoi’s Bench is based on a contempt petition filed by Common Cause, represented by advocate Prashant Bhushan, for not implementing the April 2017 judgment of the Supreme Court.
📰 Sexual intercourse in long-term relationship not rape, says SC
‘This is especially true if the woman herself says she and the accused had lived as man and wife’
•Sexual intercourse in the course of a long-term relationship cannot be classified as rape, the Supreme Court has held.
•A Bench of Justices S.A. Bobde and L. Nageswara Rao said this was especially true if the complainant-woman herself alleges that she and the accused had lived as man and wife.
•The Bench was hearing an appeal against an order of the Karnataka High Court, which refused to quash a rape case.
•The woman alleged that she had lived with the man for a period of eight years.
•The court order records how the woman stated that the man had “pretended to have loved me on the promise of marriage, that he applied the kumkum on her forehead, and tied the Arishina thread to her neck.”
•‘Trying to cheat her’
•“She further stated that she has been treating the appellant as her husband for the past eight years, and now he is trying to escape from her and cheat her,” the apex court order said.
•The court said it would not go into whether they were actually married, but “we have no doubt that they lived together like a married couple even according to the complainant (woman).”
Criminal proceedings
•Ordering the quashing of criminal proceedings against the man, the court concluded that it was “difficult to sustain the charges levelled against the appellant who may have possibly, made a false promise of marriage to the complainant.”
•“It is difficult to hold sexual intercourse in the course of a relationship, which has continued for eight years, as ‘rape’, especially in the face of the complainant’s own allegation that they lived together as man and wife,” the Supreme Court observed.
📰 Clamour for death
The anger is justified, but not the proposal to grant capital punishment for rape of minors
•Each time a horrific sexual crime hits the headlines, there is a clamour for prescribing the death penalty for such offences. Given this, it is perhaps no surprise that the gang-rape and murder of an eight-year-old girl in Jammu and Kashmir has evoked a similar response. Union Minister for Women and Child Development Maneka Gandhi has said her ministry will seek an amendment to the Protection of Children from Sexual Offences Act, 2012, to provide for death as the maximum punishment for the rape of those below 12. The anger is understandable but legislation ought to be a well-considered exercise and not a response based on a sense of outrage over particular incidents. The last time a ghastly crime led to legislative change was in 2013, following a national outcry over the gang rape and murder of a woman in Delhi in December 2012. That set of amendments to criminal law was a structured response, largely based on the recommendations of a committee of eminent jurists. In its January 2013 report, the committee, headed by former Chief Justice of India J.S. Verma, decided against recommending the death penalty for rape, despite demands. It rightly took into account the possibility of awarding life sentences without remission for aggravated sexual assault, as well as “the current thinking in favour of the abolition of the death penalty”. However, the Criminal Law (Amendment) Act, 2013, set the death penalty for rape in the event of it causing the victim’s death or a persistent vegetative state, and for repeat offenders.
•In recent months, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana and Arunachal Pradesh have sought to amend the law to prescribe the death penalty for the rape of a minor below the age of 12. There is a clear dichotomy of views on the desirability of prescribing a death penalty. Enlightened public opinion would not approve of a vengeful state response to individual brutality, even if outraged public opinion clamoured for it. Moreover, it should not be forgotten that the death penalty has never been a deterrent against any sort of crime. There is little empirical evidence to show that those about to commit a capital offence would stop themselves merely out of the fear of being hanged. Further, there is a legitimate concern that the country’s judicial system has not been consistent in awarding the death penalty. The Law Commission, while recommending abolition of the death penalty, except in terrorism-related cases, observed that it is difficult to operate the ‘rarest of rare cases’ principle without a hint of arbitrariness. It will be especially wrong to force judges to compare the relative ‘merits’ of rape victims based on their age and choose between death sentence and life. Lengthy prison sentences, constituting both well-deserved consequences for grave crimes and a life-long opportunity for penitence, will adequately meet the ends of justice.
📰 No deficit of currency, more being printed: RBI
Being moved to high demand areas
•Amid the cash shortage reported from several parts of the country, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has assured that there is sufficient cash in the central bank’s vaults and in current chests, adding that the situation is being monitored closely.
•The central bank also said printing of notes has been ramped up in all the four security note presses and steps are been taken to move currency to areas that are witnessing unusually large cash withdrawals.
Enough in vaults, chests
•“It has been reported in a section of the media that there is shortage of currency in certain parts of the country. It is hereby clarified at the outset that there is sufficient cash in the RBI vaults and currency chests. Nevertheless, printing of the notes has been ramped up in all the four note presses,” the RBI said in a statement.
•The central bank said the shortage may be felt in some pockets largely due to logistical issues of replenishing ATMs frequently and as recalibration of ATMs is still underway.
Close monitoring
•“RBI is closely monitoring both these aspects,” the release said.
•“Further, as a matter of abundant precaution, the RBI is also taking steps to move currency to areas which are witnessing unusually large cash withdrawals,” the central bank added.
📰 Chasing the monsoon
The forecast has enhanced the economic outlook, but India must conduct a water audit
•The forecast of a normal monsoon has brought relief all around. For farmers, the India Meteorological Department’s estimate that rainfall during the summer, between June and September, will be 97% of the 50-year average of 89 cm, is bound to raise fresh expectations. This is the third year in a row that they can look forward to a high output for a variety of crops, although fiscal realities have come in the way of realising higher farm incomes. The Centre has been supportive of higher returns through the Minimum Support Price mechanism and additional bonuses have been announced by States such as Madhya Pradesh for procurement, but these have helped mainly rice and wheat. From a water management perspective, though, this trend has led to a skew towards these crops, which are heavily dependent on groundwater. Now that another year of good cropping is expected, and unremunerative prices will depress public sentiment, it is vital for the Centre to arrive at a policy that gives constructive advice to farmers on the ideal cropping mix and help them get the cost-plus-50% margin that it has promised them. The IMD’s decision to provide a more fine-grained forecast on the monsoon’s progress, particularly in the central and northern regions, will meet a long-felt need and can potentially guide farmers better.
•The long-term challenge is to make the most of the rainfall that India gets, ranging from a few hundred millimetres or less in the northwest to more than a few thousand millimetres elsewhere. The Master Plan for Artificial Recharge to Ground Water drawn up by the Centre should be pursued scientifically, to help States with the most water-stressed blocks get adequate funds to build artificial recharge structures. Moreover, for those farmers who choose to continue with wheat and rice, transfer of expertise and provision of equipment that enables efficient utilisation of water is vital. An estimate of water used to grow rice and wheat, measured in cubic metres per tonne, shows that India uses more than what, say, China does. In the case of cotton, the figures present an even more staggering contrast: 8,264 cubic metres for India, against 1,419 for China. Combined with distortions in procurement subsidies, water stress due to such use is inevitable. On the monsoon as a whole, studies indicate a change in the pattern since 1950. There is an increase in daily average rainfall since 2002, barring some of the worst El Niño years, likely due to higher land temperatures and cooler oceans. What is well known is that a good monsoon raises agriculture’s contribution to GDP growth, while a drought year depresses it. Clearly, governments need to invest consistently to harvest the monsoon, both on the surface and underground, with community participation.
📰 ‘India expected to grow at 7.4% in 2018’
IMF foresees China to trail behind at 6.6%; reforms such as GST to help reduce internal trade barriers
•India is expected to grow at 7.4% in 2018 and 7.8% in 2019, leaving its nearest rival China behind respectively at 6.6% and 6.4% in the two years, the IMF said on Tuesday.
•With growth picking up after falling sharply in the second quarter of 2017 due to “one-off factors”, India, in 2018 and 2019, would re-emerge as one of the fastest growing major economies, it said.
•The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), has projected India to grow at 7.4% in 2018 and 7.8% in 2019. China is expected to grow respectively at 6.6% and 6.4% in the two years.
•However, the latest IMF growth rate projection remains unchanged since the last one in October.
•India’s growth rate in 2016 was 7.1% as against China’s 6.7%.
•Two major economic reforms — demonetisation and goods and services tax (GST) — resulted in a slight lower growth rate of 6.7% in 2017.
•China, with 6.9% growth, jumped marginally ahead of India in 2017.
•India’s projected growth provided some offset to China’s gradual slowdown, the IMF said.
•The latest forecast is unchanged, “with the short-term firming of growth driven by a recovery from the transitory effects of the currency exchange initiative and implementation of the national goods and services tax, and supported by strong private consumption growth,” the WEO said.
•According to the IMF, India has made progress on structural reforms in the recent past, including through the implementation of the GST, which will help reduce internal barriers to trade, increase efficiency and improve tax compliance.
‘Key challenge’
•“While the medium-term growth outlook for India is strong, an important challenge is to enhance inclusiveness,” the report said.
•India’s high public debt and recent failure to achieve the budget’s deficit target, calls for continued fiscal consolidation into the medium term to further strengthen fiscal policy credibility, the report said.
•The main priorities for lifting constraints on job creation and ensuring that the demographic dividend is not wasted are to ease labour market rigidities, reduce infrastructure bottlenecks, and improve educational outcomes, the IMF said.
•According to the WEO, growth in China and India last year was supported by resurgent net exports and strong private consumption, respectively, while investment growth slowed.
📰 ‘Corporate debt, a drag on investment’
Policy action needed to tackle balance sheet vulnerabilities that pose a risk: IMF
•The corporate debt overhang and associated banking sector credit quality concerns exert a drag on investment in India, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday, in an apparent reference to the PNB scam involving diamantaire Nirav Modi.
•Balance sheet vulnerabilities pose a downside risk to medium-term growth prospects in many emerging market economies, requiring policy action, the IMF said in its annual World Economic Outlook report.
•“The corporate debt overhang and associated banking sector credit quality concerns exert a drag on investment in India,” it said.
•According to the fund, the recapitalisation plan for major public-sector banks in India, announced in 2017, will help replenish capital buffers and improve the banking sector’s ability to support growth.
•“However, recapitalisation should be part of a broader package of financial reforms to improve the governance of public sector banks, and banks’ debt recovery mechanisms should be further enhanced,” the IMF said.
•According to the IMF, in Turkey, limiting balance sheet currency mismatches and high exposure to foreign exchange risk are urgent priorities, especially with monetary policy normalisation under way in the U.S. and the U.K. (and the resulting possibility of a shift of capital flows away from emerging markets).
Mitigating rollover risk
•Moreover, given that sudden repricing of term premiums remains a distinct possibility and that portfolio shifts could occur, it is important to mitigate rollover risk by avoiding excessive reliance on short-term borrowing.
•“Regulators in China have taken important measures to rein in shadow banking and bring financial activity back onto bank balance sheets, where capital and provisioning requirements provide greater loss absorption capacity than in opaque off-balance-sheet channels.”
📰 Bharat-22 ETF may eye Rs. 10,000 cr.
•The Finance Ministry may come out with a Rs. 10,000-crore follow-on fund offer of the Bharat-22 exchange traded fund (ETF) as it looks to dilute stake in Coal India to meet the minimum public holding norm.
•Besides, the Ministry is keen to take the ETF route to sell off government shares held through SUUTI in private firms — ITC, Axis Bank and L&T, an official said. The government, in November, introduced Bharat-22 ETF comprising shares of 22 firms, including PSUs, public sector banks, ITC, Axis Bank and L&T. The fund had garnered bids to the tune of Rs. 32,000 crore, although the government retained only Rs. 14,500 crore.
📰 NGT asks Ministry to finalise national policy on forest fires
•The National Green Tribunal has directed the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change to finalise the National Policy on Forest Fire within two weeks, after noting that forest fires generally occur in the month of April.
•A Bench headed by NGT acting chairperson Jawad Rahim said, “Though we have acceded to grant of time, but in view of the fact that forest fires normally occur in the month of April every year, we direct the MoEF&CC to get all the requisite approval that are required from the Minister and give finality to the National Policy on Forest Fire and make it implementable.”
•The green panel had earlier come down heavily on the Centre for remaining a “mute spectator” to the recurring forest fires in the hill States and asked the Environment Ministry to formulate a national policy.
•The directions came while the Bench was hearing a plea filed by senior advocate Rajiv Dutta who had claimed that “if no urgent steps are taken, further devastation would be caused to a huge chunk of flora and fauna which are considered wealth of the nation”.
