📰 Obama highlights issues of tolerance, NGOs, LGBT rights
Obama is advocating “universal values”, says Chief International Advisor Ben Rhodes tells The Hindu
•Unveiling his new role as a social reformer at a townhall and media event in Delhi, former United States President Barack Obama highlighted issues of religious tolerance, LGBT community rights, and the importance of Non Governmental Organisations (NGOs).
•Speaking on Friday at a townhall event of 300 youth leaders, activists and social entrepreneurs organised by the Obama Foundation, Mr. Obama spoke about the importance of “finding a voice” for the Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender (LGBT) community. To a specific question from Akkai Padmashali, a transgender activist on Article 377 of Indian law, which criminalises homosexuality, Mr. Obama said that people from the community should “take hope” from the experience of the US and other countries, where same-sex marriages have now been legalised.
•Earlier in the day Mr. Obama said that he had brought up concerns about the treatment of religious minorities with Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his last visit as U.S. President in January 2015.
•“A country shouldn't be divided on sectarian lines and that is something I have told Prime Minister Modi in person as well as to people in America...People see the differences between each other much too vividly and miss the commonalities,” he told an audience at a conference organised by the Hindustan Times group. While praising Mr. Modi for his work on Climate Change and the Paris accords, Mr. Obama credited former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for modernising the Indian economy, saying they had also been “also great friends”.
‘Counter-narrative’ to tolerance in US
•Referring to a “counter-narrative” to tolerance in the US, Europe and India, Mr. Obama also said, "For a country like India where there is a Muslim population that is successful, integrated and considers itself as Indian — which is not the case in some other countries, this should be nourished and cultivated."
•Mr. Obama’s words are significant as they repeat concerns he expressed at a public lecture during his 2015 visit, that criticised cow-vigilantism and attacks on churches in India at the time.
Importance of NGOs
•In an exclusive interview to The Hindu, Mr. Obama’s Chief International Advisor, Ben Rhodes said that the former president believed these are “universal values”.
•“In any country round the world, he is going to support progressive values, tolerance, inclusion, and rights for LGBT people. These are universal values he holds, not for any one country. When he was here in India last he said in a speech that he has deep respect for how important traditions are, and how important identity is, but that is not inconsistent with respecting others and being tolerant of them,” Mr. Rhodes, who travelled to Delhi with Mr. Obama, said.
•According to Mr. Rhodes, the Obama Foundation also wanted to highlight the importance of NGOs. “Here in India the point we would make is that NGOs are necessary to help solve problems. NGO’s should be seen not as a threat, but a partner, and play a role in the solution,” he said in response to a question on funding-restrictions placed on American NGOs Ford Foundation and Compassion International, both cases that had been raised by the U.S. government with the Modi government in 2015-2016.
•Mr. Modi, who hosted a lunch for Mr. Obama on Friday, later tweeted: “It was a pleasure to meet, once again, former President Barack Obama, and learn about the new initiatives being taken forward under his leadership at the Obama Foundation…and his perspectives on further strengthening India-US strategic partnership.”
📰 Navy alive to China threat, says Lanba
Finds submarine deployment odd
•Referring to the Chinese deployment of submarines for anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden, the Chief of the Naval Staff, Admiral Sunil Lanba, on Friday said it was an “odd task” for a submarine to perform.
•“People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) said they [submarines] are being deployed in the Indian Ocean for anti-piracy patrols. It is rather an odd task to give to a submarine... It is not the most ideal platform to do anti-piracy patrols,” he said in response to questions at the annual press conference ahead of Navy Day.
•China has actively deployed ships and submarines in the Indian Ocean in the name of anti-piracy measures and the frequency has steadily gone up. Several U.S. military officers too have expressed similar views in the past. On this note, Admiral Lanba said the Navy had “carried out threat assessment of PLAN submarines.”
•In a related development, India and Singapore are in the process of discussing the modalities of the overarching naval cooperation agreement signed in presence of the two Defence Ministers earlier this week.
•This gives India access to the Changi naval base near the Strait of Malacca as a basing area. “Our staff will work out an implementation agreement on the bilateral agreement which has been signed. We will have temporary facilities for basing of ships, submarines and aircraft to operate,” Admiral Lanba said.
Conventional carrier
•After much deliberation, the Indian Navy has decided to go ahead with a conventionally powered reactor instead of a nuclear-powered one for its second Indigenous Aircraft Carrier (IAC-II).
•“We have analysed it and fixed the form and fit of the carrier. It is going to be about 65,000 tonnes a through-deck carrier with Catapult Assisted Take-Off But Arrested Recovery (CATOBAR). It is going to be conventionally powered and we are going through the process of taking it to the Ministry for acquisition,” Admiral Lanba said.
•Acknowledging that INS Chakra, the nuclear attack submarine from Russia, suffered damage to its sonar dome where two panels have been dislodged, he said, “We have already ordered the panels. Hopefully it should be up and about sooner than later.”
📰 States’ views sought on triple talaq law
Proposes three-year jail term for man giving instant divorce
•The Centre on Friday wrote to the States asking for their views on a draft law that imposes a maximum of three-year jail term on a Muslim man for giving instant triple talaq — or talaq e biddat — to his wife. Top sources said the government was set to introduce the Bill in the winter session of Parliament, which starts on December 15. Once the proposed Muslim Women Protection of Rights on Marriage Bill is approved by Parliament, it will cover all cases of instant triple talaq across the country, except in Jammu and Kashmir. The draft has been prepared by a Group of Ministers, headed by Home Minister Rajnath Singh. Other members are External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, Law Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad and his deputy P.P. Chaudhary, and the junior Minister in the PMO Jitender Singh.
•As per the provisions of the draft bill, accessed by The Hindu , a husband who resorts to instant triple talaq can be jailed up to three years and fined.
📰 ‘States delay recruiting of lower court judges’
Fail to adhere to the SC’s time limit: Study
•States take much longer to complete a cycle of recruitment of lower court judges than the time limit prescribed by the Supreme Court, a study has revealed.
•The Supreme Court prescribes a time limit of 273 days for a three-tier recruitment system and 153 days if it is a two-tier system.
•A data-driven assessment by the Vidhi Centre for Legal Policy, New Delhi, showed that the average recruitment cycle was 326.7 days for a three-tier recruitment process to appoint Civil Judges (Junior Division). The Centre said in a statement that data from 20 States were studied, while the average was calculated for 18 States over a 10-year period.
•The process is equally time-consuming for District Judges (Direct Recruitment) too. Seven States with a two-tier recruitment system took an average of 196.28 days to complete one cycle. Ten States that followed a three-tier system took an average of 335.9 days, the Centre said.
Two metrics
•The report assigned ranking to States after assessing their lower judiciary recruitment processes based on two metrics: average time taken to complete a recruitment cycle and the percentage of vacancies potentially filled. In the direct recruitment of District Judges, relying on data from 15 States, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal were ranked the highest, while Assam and Bihar were ranked the lowest.
•In the appointment of Civil Judges (Junior Division), Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Punjab got the top ranks, while Jammu and Kashmir, Manipur and Delhi were ranked the lowest. Data from 20 States were considered.
📰 ‘Way to remove poll commissioners vague’
SC seeks Attorney-General’s assistance on PIL plea saying only CEC’s removal procedure clear
•The Supreme Court on Friday sought the Attorney-General’s assistance on a PIL petition pointing out the vagueness in the procedure for removal of ElectionCommissioners, saying it affects the Election Commission’s autonomy.
•A Bench led by Chief Justice of India Dipak Misra asked for a copy of the petition to be served on Attorney-General K.K. Venugopal so that he could address the court on the issue which is due to come up after three weeks.
•The petition filed by Supreme Court advocate Ashwini Kumar Upadhyay argued that though the proviso to Article 324 (5) of the Constitution safeguards the Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) from arbitrary removal, the same provision is silent about the procedure for removal of the two Election Commissioners.
Just one clause
•It only provides that they cannot be removed from office except on the recommendation of the CEC.
•The petition said the ambiguity about the removal procedure of the Election Commissioners may affect the functional independence of the Commission.
•The CEC and the Election Commissioners have a tenure of six years, or up to the age of 65, whichever is earlier, and enjoy the same status and receive salary and perks as available to Supreme Court judges.
Same powers
•“The CEC and the Election Commissioners enjoy the same decision-making powers which is suggestive of the fact that their powers are at par with each other. However, Article 324(5) does not provide similar protection to the Election Commissioners and it merely says that they cannot be removed from office except on the recommendation of the CEC,” the petition said.
•It contended that the “rationale behind not affording similar protection to Election Commissioners is not explicable.”
•The element of independence sought to be achieved under the Constitution is not exclusively for an individual alone but for the institution, it said.
•The petition, in short, has asked the Supreme Court to provide Election Commissioners with the same protection against arbitrary removal as the Chief Election Commissioner.
📰 M.P. has most number of repeat offenders
Work on sex offenders registry in progress: NCRB
•The percentage of juveniles who repeat a crime at least once is the same as that for adult criminals, according to the data published by the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB).
•As per the NCRB, 44,171 juveniles were apprehended in 2016. Of them, 5.2 % were convicted in the past at least once. Last year, the total number of adults arrested was 37,37,870, which included 1,91,849 persons or 5.1% who had been convicted for the crime at least once.
•There were 35,608 adults who were convicted twice (1%) and 10,427 persons convicted thrice or more (0.3%).
•Percentage wise, among the 29 States and seven Union Territories, Chandigarh with 38.1% reported the maximum number of repeat offenders among adults.
•This was followed by 29.2% repeat offenders in Tripura, 20.5% in Jharkhand, 16.9% in Mizoram and 12.2 % in Delhi.
•In absolute numbers, the maximum number of repeat offenders among adults was in Madhya Pradesh-35,320, Tamil Nadu-18,841, Assam-11,659, Telangana- 13,605 and Andhra Pradesh- 16,471.
•Though the break-up for sexual offences was not available in the Crime in India 2016 report released on Thursday, an official said the data on “recidivism amongst persons arrested under IPC crimes” would come in handy while preparing the proposed sex offenders registry, on the lines of registers maintained in Western countries, including the U.S. and the U.K.
•The Home Ministry has told Parliament that details of sexual offenders even below 18 years of age would be included in the database, which would be put up on the NCRB website.
To publicise details
•The government plans to publicise their photographs, addresses, PAN card details, Aadhaar card number, fingerprints and DNA samples through this registry.
•The proposal to set up a registry was first mooted by the UPA government after the 2012 gang rape in Delhi.
•Asked about the fate of the registry, a senior NCRB official said, “the proposal is very much in progress. We are getting the necessary clearances for it.”
📰 Cabinet nod to nutrition mission
•The Union Cabinet on Friday approved the launch of National Nutrition Mission with a target to reduce malnutrition and low birth weight by 2% each year. The government has budgeted ₹9,046 crore for the mission for a period of three years.
•More than 10 crore people will be benefited by this programme. All the states and districts will be covered in a phased manner; to begin with the worst affected 315 districts will be targeted this financial year.
•The core idea behind the mission is to converge all the existing programmes on a single platform. “One ministry alone working in its own silo can’t achieve this,” Women and Child Development Minister Maneka Gandhi said.
•For example, the Pradhan Mantri Matruvandana Yojana, which provides support to pregnant and lactating women, works under the Ministry of Women and Child Development; while Mission Indradhanush, which seeks to increase rates of complete immunisation of women and children, functions under the Ministry of Health.
•“The results of this, if we are on the right track, should show in a year. This is momentous,” Ms. Gandhi added.
•The mission targets to bring down stunting in children. As per the National Family Health Survey, 38.4% of children in India have stunted growth. The mission plans to bring this down to 25% by 2022. It also aims to bring down anaemia among young children, women and adolescent girls by 3% every year.
Aadhaar or no aadhaar?
•There remains confusion over whether or not Aadhaar is mandatory for all beneficiaries, many of who are children below the age of three years. Women and Child Development secretary R.K. Shrivastava said that it was mandatory, but no beneficiary would be denied benefits for the lack of Aadhaar card.
•“In a pilot study in Assam we found 3 lakh fake children enrolled in Aganwadis, which means pilferage of ₹30 lakh per day,” Ms. Gandhi said.
•The ministry, however, was not clear as for children below the age of five biometrics cannot be recorded. “There has to be some sort of identification. This is a good question I think we have to work it out, so that it does not create more paperwork but at the same time avoid an Assam-like situation,” she added.
📰 T.N. working towards resolving Nissan’s $770 million suit
Nissan has initiated international arbitration proceedings against the Indian government, seeking $770 million on the dispute.
•The Tamil Nadu government is working towards resolving the controversy over the payment of incentive refund with Nissan, a Japanese car maker, running a plant in Oragadam near here.
•Nissan has initiated international arbitration proceedings against the Indian government, seeking $770 million on the dispute, according to reports.
•Explaining the State government’s version of the row, a senior official of the Industries department says the dispute has two dimensions. While one is over the refund of value added tax (VAT), another deals with the pace of refund of VAT accruals.
•While the government is talking to the company, it is also apprising the Central government of the factual position as the company has raised the matter with the Centre, making a reference to the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), the official says.
•In March 2010, Nissan along with its joint venture partner Renault established the plant after signing a memorandum of understanding with the then ruling DMK government in February 2008. The venture has invested ₹ 6,100 crore in the following seven years with annual production capacity of 4.80 lakh vehicles.
•For setting up plant, usually the state government offers financial incentives in the form of valued added taxes among others based on certain conditions.
•“The issue pertains over differences in value added taxes refund claimed under the incentive. The incentives are spread over a period of 21 years,” the official said.
•The dispute arose about four years ago when the government felt that the company was attempting to “claim double benefits” out of the project. The government contended that the company, by promoting a marketing entity, had shown that all its sales had taken place with the marketing entity, for which it claimed refund of 14.5% VAT. The refund would be allowed till the accruals reached the level of investment. The marketing entity was, in turn, also claiming input tax credit for its transactions, which the government found objectionable. Through this arrangement, the company, according to those who handled the matter in the recent past, could get back its investment faster than otherwise.
•The company’s contention was that there was nothing illegal about the way it was carrying out its business and this was why its claims should be settled.
•In 2015, the government, taking a cue from Maharashtra, amended rules on VAT, by which the claim on ITC was barred. The government’s order has been challenged in the Madras High Court. The Centre too held a series of meetings with the State government on the issue.
•Nissan has claimed the incentive of ₹ 2,900 crore in VAT refund, whereas the State government says it has paid ₹ 1,600 crore including ₹ 600 crore in the last six months.
•“We are committed to working with the Government of India toward a resolution. Nissan is proud to play a role in the Make in India effort and we have created over 40,000 jobs in India, directly and indirectly, and contributed to the economic growth of Tamil Nadu where we have invested around a billion dollars,” Nissan spokesperson said in a statement.
•Nissan taking the matter for international arbitration comes at a time when there are concerns in certain quarters about the investment climate in the state.
•Last year, the state slipped to the 18th rank in the state-wise ease of doing business ranking released by the Centre’s Department of industrial policy and promotion (DIPP). It is to address this issue and attract greater investment that the State government, in late October, came out with an ordinance, envisaging single window clearance for industrial projects.
📰 Heavy rain continues in Kerala, south T.N.
High waves swamp large tracts of land, displace hundreds of families; 218 fishermen rescued and brought home
•Heavy rain continued to batter coastal areas of Kerala and south Tamil Nadu on Friday, crippling normal life, even as Cyclone Ockhi lay centered off the Lakshadweep islands. The death toll in the two States in rain-related incidents rose to 11.
•The tropical cyclone developed into a very severe storm, even as it veered off towards the Lakshadweep islands on a path predicted by weathermen.
•By evening, the storm lay centred 90 km north of Minicoy and 220 km south-southeast of Amini island.
•Though the strong winds unleashed by the cyclone over Kerala abated, the rain picked up in strength by Friday noon, leading to flooding of low-lying areas.
•High waves pounded the entire Kerala coast, swamping large tracts of land and displacing hundreds of families.
•The death toll in incidents related to the storm went up to seven, with Thiruvananthapuram accounting for the highest number of five casualties.
•As many as 218 fishermen who had put out to sea during the cyclone were rescued and brought to land, the Kerala government claimed on Friday night.
•Kerala Fisheries Minister J. Mercykutty Amma said a Navy ship had been deployed to search for 22 fishing vessels spotted off the coast of Kollam.
•As many as 2,759 persons in Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Alappuzha, Ernakulam and Thrissur were relocated to relief camps.
•In Tamil Nadu, while the authorities said four persons had died due to the cyclone, unofficial sources put the figure at 10. Close to 70 personnel from the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) were deployed in many pockets to assist the needy and evacuation drive was on at many locations.
•Schools and colleges remained closed in Kanniyakumari district, where power lines were not yet restored in many pockets. As a result, mobile communication was affected. Many residents relied on boat services as low-lying areas were inundated. However, authorities were able to move essential commodities during the forenoon.
•Though the intensity was not that heavy in neighbouring Tirunelveli and Thoothukudi districts, continuous rain resulted in Papanasam dam recording 451 mm rainfall.
•Out of the 11 dams in Tirunelveli district, six had reached the maximum storage level.
📰 Scripting another Asian narrative
Japan is filling the vacuum created by the U.S.’s withdrawal from the region
•Japan has long been an anomaly: an economic powerhouse within a geostrategic pygmy. But China’s muscular ascent combined with the capriciousness of a Trump-led U.S. is causing Tokyo to slough off its diplomatic slumber and rethink its role in Asia. From proposing new security dialogues, to taking the lead in developing multilateral trade agreements, it is beginning to pick up some of the slack left by the U.S.’s “America First”-influenced withdrawal from leadership in Asia.
•Japan is in a potentially explosive neighbourhood, and it no longer believes that a wholescale reliance on the U.S. for a defence umbrella is sufficient to secure its best interests. Foreign Minister Tarō Konō said in October: “We are in an era when Japan has to exert itself diplomatically by drawing a big strategic picture.”
•Military normalisation is one prong of Japan’s new foreign policy, but even if a controversial revision of Japan’s pacifist Constitution, as proposed by newly re-elected Prime Minister Shinzo Abe goes through, the archipelago’s armed forces will remain under strong, self-imposed constraints. The constitutional revision would merely recognise the legality of Japan’s long extant Self-Defense Forces (SDF). Offensive weapons and preemptive strikes would remain outlawed.
Countering China
•His nationalist leanings notwithstanding, even Mr. Abe realises that remilitarising alone will not provide Japan with an effective solution to its diplomatic dilemmas. What Tokyo needs to prevent the region from succumbing to a Pax Sinica is to use its strengths, its capital, its technological know-how and its democratic credentials to win friends and influence countries across the region and beyond. It needs to beat infrastructure sugar daddy China at its own game.
•A large part of China’s rise has to do with its indispensability to global trade. But Japan is a trading heavyweight too, and is attempting to stake leadership on the regional platform with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). With the U.S.’s departure from trade negotiations, Japan has become the principal driving force keeping the deal alive. At November’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Vietnam, Japan got the 11 countries still involved to agree on the “core elements” of a deal. It wants to lead rule-making on trade in the Asia Pacific, rather than let China set the agenda with alternatives to TPP such as the Beijing-backed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
•At the same time, Japan is stepping up aid and investment in Southeast Asia. A train line near Manila, a seaport in Cambodia, and assistance in the reconstruction of Marawi City in the Philippines are some examples. As the top source of development aid to Vietnam, it has helped construct a new airport terminal in Hanoi as well as the first subway line in Ho Chi Minh City.
•Mr. Abe recently committed 1 trillion yen ($8.7 billion) to the Philippines over the next five years, with a continued focus on infrastructure development. Japanese investment in major Southeast Asian countries is estimated to have averaged $20 billion per year, from 2011 to 2016, more than double the average annual flows between 2006 and 2010.
•Japanese sales pitches to countries in the region always have one eye on China, emphasising advantages in areas where Beijing is vulnerable such as safety, reliability and solutions that deliver benefits to local populations.
Looking to India
•China’s $900 billion, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure building campaign across Eurasia is a gauntlet that Japan has picked up by turning to the only country in the region with the heft to match China, India.
•Japan and India have announced an Asia-Africa Growth Corridor, aimed at creating sea corridors linking the countries of the Indo-Pacific to Africa. In addition, Japan is cooperating with India in third country infrastructure projects such as Iran’s Chabahar Port, Sri Lanka’s Trincomalee port, and the possible joint development of the Dawei port along the Thai-Myanmar border.
•Japan has bagged the $17 billion contract to build India’s first high speed railway line, linking Mumbai and Ahmedabad. Tokyo is also investing in development projects in the Northeast and the Andaman and Nicobar islands. And Japan’s Diet gave the go ahead to a Japan-India civil nuclear energy deal earlier this year. The possibility of purchasing Japanese submarines and search-and-rescue planes to help the Indian Navy is being discussed.
Creating a ‘Quad’
•A free and open Indo-Pacific, a phrasing that places India as a major actor in the Pacific, is an idea being proselytised by Japan in conjunction with the U.S. This is a response to concerns over the expansion of the Chinese navy and Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea, waters through which a huge majority of Japanese energy supplies transit.
•It is against this background that Tokyo’s championing of the Quadrilateral dialogue with the U.S., India and Australia aimed at creating a community of democratically oriented interests in the region must be understood.
•Tokyo wants to use the bilateral ties it is developing to create a multilateral architecture in the region. Like Germany in post-World War II Europe, Japan is aware that unilateral moves by it invariably conjure up images of militarism and expansionism. However, without making genuine amendments for its past aggressions, an idea that Mr. Abe does not seem interested in, Japan’s attempts to shape the future of the region will remain constrained.
📰 Accident-prone: the apathy over enforcing road safety rules
The apathy over enforcing road safety rules must stop
•The most effective measure to keep roads safe is enforcement of rules with zero tolerance to violations. But as anyone who uses India’s roads knows only too well, that is not an administrative priority. Even the periodic directions of the Supreme Court in a public interest case, Dr. S. Rajasekaran v. Union of India, have not produced any dramatic change in the official attitude. In spite of the court setting up the Committee on Road Safety and appointing an amicus curiae to help implement its recommendations, it is mostly business as usual for the police in enforcing road rules, for engineers tasked with forming roads and pavements, and transport officials in charge of licensing. The death of 1,50,785 people in accidents in 2016, which represents a 3.2% rise over the previous year, indicates the scale of the challenge. Fortunately, the orders of the court now provide actionable points with deadlines for implementation. Governments should be called to account on these, and civil society must ensure that they act without compromise. The most important among these is the Road Safety Action Plan that each State and Union Territory must announce by March 2018, and roll out after giving due publicity. But police forces and transport bureaucracies need not wait for formalisation of the plan, and should start enforcing rules relating to lane-based driving, using CCTV cameras to penalise offenders, and conducting safety audits along with experts.
•The absence of a scientific approach to accident investigation in India remains a major factor in fixing responsibility. This was pointed out by the Sundar Committee of the Ministry of Road Transport in 2007, but other than a failed attempt at creating a National Road Safety and Traffic Management Board, no real effort has been made at reform. The orders of the Supreme Court provide a road map, and the direction to States to form a District Road Safety Committee headed by the Collector before January 31, 2018 should ensure that someone is accountable when citizens file complaints on hazardous conditions. It bears pointing out that the court-appointed Committee on Road Safety has written to States on the need to prosecute every case of driving under the influence of alcohol and drugs, seeking imprisonment and fine, and to treat driving on the wrong side of the carriageway as an offence under Section 279 of the Indian Penal Code, which can lead to imprisonment, and not merely under the Motor Vehicles Act. Stringent penalties have a lower chance of being imposed, compared to fines that are proportionate to the offence. Yet, even the existing minor penalties are not being imposed, and road conditions remain hazardous due to poor engineering. This is proof of the apathy of the system. It’s time to shake the system out of its indifference.
📰 Fragile momentum: India's economic growth
The economic slowdown has been reversed, but the task of sustaining the trend remains
•Turning around a large ship is never easy. So it must give policymakers a measure of satisfaction that the slowdown seen during the last fiscal year and in the first quarter has been reversed. Data released on Thursday show that economic growth as measured by the gross domestic product rebounded to 6.3% in the three months through September, from a three-year low of 5.7% in the preceding quarter. The reversal in direction apart, what is equally noteworthy is that this revival was coterminous with the nationwide roll-out of the goods and services tax from July 1. Interestingly, it was manufacturing that was in the vanguard of the rebound, with gross value added for the sector recovering smartly from the first quarter’s anaemic 1.2% growth to post a healthy 7% expansion. While the GVA data for the sector appear, on the face of it, to be significantly at variance from the Index of Industrial Production data that had been reported for the last quarter, the Central Statistics Office made it clear that the second-quarter IIP manufacturing growth figure of 2.2% was indeed factored in and used as a proxy for the approximately one-fifth of manufacturing GVA contributed by the “quasi-corporate and unorganised segment”. A lion’s share, or more than 70%, of economic activity in the sector was measured using growth among private listed corporate entities, based on the numbers reported by them.
•Sustaining and building on this reversal of momentum may be more challenging in the coming months, given other economic data that are a cause for concern and some external headwinds. Specifically, agriculture remains in a slump, and this in a ‘normal’ monsoon year — GVA growth in the sector, which includes forestry and fishing, slowed to 1.7%, from 2.3% in the first quarter, and was considerably weaker than the 4.1% pace posted in the year-earlier period. Agriculture is a significant contributor to rural incomes and consumption demand, and the impact of a protracted agricultural slowdown on the larger economy cannot be overstated. Worryingly, the foodgrain output in the kharif season contracted by 2.8%, compared with a 10.7% expansion in the year-earlier period. This could portend a resurgence of inflationary pressures on food prices that would limit the room for growth-supportive monetary action by the Reserve Bank of India. Consumption spending by households also remains in a stubborn rut: the second-quarter growth at 6.5% was a tad slower than the 6.6% seen in April-June; it was 7.9% a year earlier. With global oil prices having risen appreciably, and the fiscal headroom for more pump priming by the government having narrowed drastically — the fiscal deficit at the end of October has already hit 96.1% of the budget estimate for 2017-18 — the coming quarters could well test the real mettle of the economic recovery.
